Archive - Oct 16, 2012

Just when the channel-stuffed world was hoping for some good news, European car registrations pop up to smack the dream back to reality. A 10.8% YoY decline, the biggest drop in two years, makes it 11 months-in-a-row of dropping YoY comps. Before the crisis began, car registrations had risen on average 1.7% YoY each month; in the 4.5 years since they have dropped on average 4.7% YoY each month. The Eurozone year-to-date is -10.5% with Cyprus (-19.4%), Greece (-42.5%), Italy (-20.5%), Portugal (-39.7%), and Spain -11.0%. However, Spain's very recent past has been extreme to say the least with a 36.8% YoY drop from last September. Interestingly, Land Rovers are up 42.3% YTD while Alfa Romeos are down 31.6% YTD (and Mercedes and BMW down around 1% YTD). But apart from that, Europe is doing great - just look at earnings expectations for Q4.