Archive - Oct 30, 2012

Equity markets in Europe traded higher today, supported by solid corporate earnings, further monetary policy easing from Japan, as well as what can only be described as “less bad” GDP report from Spain. Also, commodity complex benefited from upward revision to China’s GDP estimate by analysts at Bank of America (Q4 GDP estimate now stands at 7.8% vs. Prev. view of 7.5%). Decent demand for the latest debt issuance saw IT/GE 10s tighten by c.5bps, with SP/GE 10s also seen tighter by 3bps.

• U.S. Super Storm’s Record Flooding Lands Blackout Blow (Bloomberg)
• Sandy Carves a Path of Destruction Across the U.S. East Coast (WSJ)
• Losses May Exceed Those of 2011 Storm (WSJ)
• Hurricane Sandy Threatens $20 Billion in Economic Damage (Bloomberg)
• Huge fire in Sandy's wake destroys dozens of NYC homes (Reuters)
• Possible levee break in New Jersey floods three towns (Reuters)
• Apple Mobile Software Head Forstall Refused to Sign Apology (WSJ)
• Stagflation in Spain (Bloomberg)
• German Oct. Unemployment Rose Twice as Much as Forecast (Bloomberg)
• A declining Japan loses its once-hopeful champions (WaPo)
• Unable to copy it, China tries building own jet engine (Reuters)
• Obama Signs Disaster Declarations for NY, NJ (YNN)

It was only yesterday that we pointed out the ever decreasing halflives of central bank interventions. We are grateful that none other than the biggest intervention basket case of all came out and proved us 100% correct, when the BOJ announced none other than QE 9 just one month after the impact from QE 8 fizzled about 8 hours after it was disclosed. This time around, the destructive "benefit" to the JPY was negative from the first second, resulting in the first instance of monetary easing that.. wasn't. Japan just came up with a brand new New Normal concept: tightening through easing, when its ¥11 trillion intervention proved to be woefully insufficient for a market addicted to ever more liquidity injections.

With the stock markets of the "developed world" in limbo for the second straight day and leaderless as New York is paralyzed, and the US was set to be closed for a second straight day, and with futures tumbling to their lowest level in over 2 months overnight, it was time for the East to step up. And step up it did! First, it was China's turn, which while still refusing to ease outright, conducted a massive 395 billion yuan reverse repo - this operation is the biggest on record, according to Bloomberg data going back to 2004, which in turn sent China's seven-day Repo rate plunging the most since January. And because this whopping injection would prove to be promptly internalized, a few short hours later Japan followed with nothing less than QE9! Just around 2 am eastern, the BOJ announced the 9th installment in its neverending monetary farce, when it said it would proceed to monetize an additional Y11 trillion in assets. From BusinessWeek: "The BOJ expanded its asset-purchase program by 11 trillion yen ($138 billion) to 66 trillion yen, the central bank said after a policy meeting today. The range of forecasts in a Bloomberg survey was from 10 trillion yen to 20 trillion yen." Of course, in this bizarro world in which intervention is the only thing left, the latest Japanese QE had an immediate and opposite effect of that planned, sending the USDJPY lower the second it was announced, as the amount announced was disappointing to most who had expected even more easing, and the halflife was for the first time in recorded monetary intervention history, absolute zero! But at least this failed intervention for Japan, helped America, sending ES from 1393, a full 13 ticks higher, where they are now. And so the epic defense of 1400 (and 1.2900 in EURUSD) continues for a 5th straight day!