Archive - Oct 2012

"QE-whatever has created artificial numbers that the underlying won't support" is how Sam Zell sums up his view of the Fed's actions, adding that the Dow should be more like 9000, not 14000. The typically optimistic bottom-feeding real-estate magnate says he is not buying here, is gravely concerned about liquidity needs, and in his assessment "everything is massively too expensive." This epic CNBC interview-fest, where the less-than-cheer-leading Zell was allowed to speak, includes his views on a pending recession (as he sees capex planned projects being delayed) and while trying not to play the political card too strongly, he asks that we "stop this class warfare crap" and that the animal spirits are unleashed - as the game is being stacked against him. "We're kicking the can down the road... and with QE, there is now too much capital chasing too few opportunities - even when nobody has confidence in the future!"

Economic Surprise Indices have begun to drift back lower in recent days after a short-lived scurry into positive territory  as anticipation of Fed/ECB action supported equity valuations over the last few months in the face of deteriorating earnings. Critically though, as Deutsche's Jim Reid notes, headline PMIs (and the ISM) are still well behind levels that are consistent with current equity markets as the disconnect between rich equity prices and poor fundamentals remains very wide. Back around May/June they were broadly in line and since then liquidity has propelled markets but with the data at similar levels, and clearly the hope is that the current fundamental weakness corrects into year-end but at current levels the S&P faces a 9% correction, Europe 22%, and China 25% - hope is indeed a powerful thing.

Just because millionaires are people too, and they too can apparently lose their jobs, we now learn courtesy of the Congressional Research Center, that in 2009, 2,362 Americans making over $1,000,000 in income (and just shy of a million people making over $200,000) collected unemployment benefits. The amount of money allocated to evil, evil millionaire benefits in 2009 was $20.8 million, amounting to $8,806 each for the year (out of a total of $83.5 billion, of which 90% went to those earning less than $100,000). Cue tar and feather fury because these evil, evil millionaires also dared to use a legal system that, at least so far, does not discriminate based on wealth or income level. Just as the US tax system allows everyone to use the same loopholes. Note that we said so far, because it may soon "not be fair."

Think of it; twenty-two trillion dollars worth of assets and liabilities and accounted for nowhere. These are twenty-two trillion dollars ($22 trillion) of loans and securitizations and mortgages that are found and accountable for by no one. These are real assets and real liabilities that have been turned into cash by the ECB and it causes us to wonder just how accurate the Money Supply numbers are for Europe with this amount of cash being pumped into the system. We also wonder what anyone’s real balance sheet looks like and I wonder what kinds of losses are being incurred and by whom. This is what we are investing in when we buy European bonds? This is where we are putting our client’s money?

Slowly, the fund that made "information arbitrage" a household name, and almost singlehandedly created the expert network industry (first exposed on Zero Hedge in 2009 before the broader public had ever heard of them up on Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3 and all of which was summarized in Are Expert Networks About To Be Exposed As The Ringleader In The Biggest Insider Trading Bust In History?) only to watch it go up in insider trading flames (as we warned years prior), and which no regulator had dared to touch for decades, is coming unwound. The latest details in a story which once again began on the pages of Zero Hedge in 2010 come from Bloomberg, where we learn what everyone already knew, namely that when working for Stevie Cohen "it was “understood” that those assigned to give their best trading ideas to founder Steven A. Cohen would provide him with insider information." Because one doesn't generate 10-20% 'Alpha' (a term which no longer has any meaning in a market exposed to have been driven exclusively by insider trading in the pre-New Normal, and entirely by central planning in the post-New Normal era) year after year and charge 3 and 50 for being just smarter. Being first apparently counts too, but cheating beats all.

Liar, Liar, Fed-Stoked Bubble Assets on Fire!!!!

Some surprising winners and losers in the past month and quarter.

Equity markets continued to edge higher today as market participants grew hopeful that a full scale bailout of Spain will take place in the very near future. So much so that even though reports that Spain is to seek bailout this weekend was denied, the risk on sentiment held strong. As a result, SP/GE and IT/GE bond yield spreads tightened further, with IT 10s now yielding close to 5%. The renewed sense of security saw EUR/USD squeeze higher towards the psychologically important 1.3000 level, while GBP/USD also benefited from a weaker USD and is trading in minor positive territory in spite of another round of disappointing macro data from the UK. Going forward, the second half of the session sees the release of the latest ISM New York index, as well as the regular weekly API report. Both the BoE and the Fed are due to conduct another round of asset purchases at 1445BST and 1600BST respectively.

The highlights from Bill Gross' latest monthly piece:

• Armageddon is not around the corner. I don’t believe in the imminent demise of the U.S. economy and its financial markets. But I’m afraid for them.
• Unless we begin to close this gap, then the inevitable result will be that our debt/GDP ratio will continue to rise, the Fed would print money to pay for the deficiency, inflation would follow and the dollar would inevitably decline. Bonds would be burned to a crisp and stocks would certainly be singed; only gold and real assets would thrive within the “Ring of Fire.”
• If the fiscal gap isn’t closed even ever so gradually over the next few years, then rating services, dollar reserve holding nations and bond managers embarrassed into being reborn as vigilantes may together force a resolution that ends in tears. The damage would likely be beyond repair.
• The U.S. and its fellow serial abusers have been inhaling debt’s methamphetamine crystals for some time now, and kicking the habit looks incredibly difficult.

• RBA Cuts Rate to 3.25% as Mining-Driven Growth Wanes (Reuters)
• Republicans Not Buying Bernanke’s QE3 Defense (WSJ)
• Spain ready for bailout, Germany signals "wait" (Reuters)
• EU says prop trading and investment banking should be separated from deposit taking (Reuters)
• Call for bank bonuses to be paid in debt (FT)
• Spanish Banks Need More Capital Than Tests Find, Moody’s Says (Bloomberg) ... as we explained on Friday
• "Fiscal cliff" to hit 90% of US families (FT)
• The casualties of Chesapeake's "land grab" across America (Reuters)
• U.K. Government Needs to Do More to Boost Weak Economy, BCC Says (Bloomberg)
• World Bank Sees Long Crisis Effect (WSJ)
• UBS Co-Worker Says He Used Adoboli’s Umbrella Account (Bloomberg)
• And more easing: South Korea central bank switches tack to encourage growth (Reuters)

In a world in which markets are simply policy instruments of central planners it is no surprise that the only thing that matters is how much money is injected by any given central bank at any given time. Last night, following the Fed and the BOJ, it was the turn of Australia, which in a "surprise" move cut policy rates by 25 bps. From SocGen: "Reacting to a weaker global economic outlook, which has moderated the outlook for growth in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its policy rate today by 25bp to 3.25%, a move that was predicted by only a minority of forecasters (including us). Nevertheless, we believe that markets are too aggressively priced for further rate reductions: we expect a low of 3.00%, to be reached by year-end, but the swap market is currently discounting a low of 2.4% by mid-2013. The reasons the RBA stated for lowering rates centered mostly on the global economic outlook, which has softened over recent months, not least because of greater uncertainty about near-term prospects in China, and hence the outlook for Australia is seen as a “little weaker”. The RBA also stated that the resource investment peak may be lower than previously thought." Sure enough, the move sent Australian stocks to 5 month highs, and global equity futures spiking. Of course, in the open-ended global race to debase perhaps it is more surprising i) they did not do this sooner and ii) not more banks have "cut" yet. Ironically, while the ECB, BOE and SNB are still contemplating next steps to catch up with Bernanke, it is the BOJ which in the abysmal failure of its own QE 8 from three weeks ago, is now contemplating QE 9 - the foreign bond edition (because buying treasury and corporate bonds, ETFs and REITs is never enough). Naturally, all this additional liquidity and promises thereof, has sent futures to fresh highs as more and more latent inflation is loaded up in the global monetary system.

Church of England - and Religious Leaders Worldwide - Say Bankers Should Repent and Change Their Ways

We are well aware that Calvinists consider patron saints a form of idolatry, but for the most part Christians and many non-Christians alike see with favor having an advocate intercede on their behalf in the many problems that beset their lives. Team Europe (golf) had one in Seve (Ballesteros) this past Sunday in Medinah, Illinois, as the Europeans overcame a record insurmountable lead (away from home) to retain the Ryder Cup. We could say that Obama, by not having the Justice Department bring to trial key members of the Thug-elite, became the patron saint of “gentler capitalism”; that’s probably what he will prefer to be known, using the pretext of further endangering an already divided nation.  But that is precisely where he is wrong.  It isn’t “gentler capitalism” that he has helped.  By his lack of courageous action, he has interceded on behalf of the Thug-elite… and, although we are sure such was not his intention, he has become, de facto, St. Barack Obama, Patron Saint of Predatory Capitalism.

When it comes to investing in gold, investors often see the world in black and white. Some people have a deep, almost religious conviction that gold is a useless, barbarous relic with no yield; it’s an asset no rational investor would ever want. Others love it, seeing it as the only asset that can offer protection from the coming financial catastrophe, which is always just around the corner. PIMCO's views are more nuanced and, we believe, provide a balanced framework for assessing value. Their bottom line: given current valuations and central bank policies, we see gold as a compelling inflation hedge and store of value that is potentially superior to fiat currencies.