Archive - Nov 20, 2012

Granular details seeping from every crack in France’s picturesque veneer

Given our earlier comments, it is hardly surprising but the Eurogroup meeting just ended and there is no agreement; headlines via Bloomberg:

• *FRIEDEN SAYS NO DECISIONS REACHED TODAY ON GREECE BY EUROGROUP
• *FRIEDEN SAYS EURO FINANCE CHIEFS TO CONTINUE TALKS ON MONDAY
• *SCHAEUBLE SAYS EUROGROUP UNABLE TO REACH CONCLUSIVE AGREEMENT
• *LAGARDE SAYS MORE WORK NEEDED FOR GREEK SOLUTION
• *JUNCKER IDENTIFIED 'CREDIBLE' IDEAS TO BRING DOWN GREEK DEBT (well he would wouldn't he?)

EURUSD is tumbling (as are S&P 500 futures in their oh-so-correlated manner)

UPDATE: *EURO FINANCE CHIEFS REACH DECISION ON GREECE, OFFICIAL SAYS

Can't wait to see what they came up with...

EURUSD is limping lower (-20 pips to 1.2800) as the early morning hours tick by in Europe and still Greece is not ceremoniously considered fixed. Reuters, citing official sources, got its hands on the 15-page report prepared for the meeting and it is grim reading indeed - summarized below (via Bloomberg): "The [extensive] package of options will not make it possible to arrive at a debt-to-GDP ratio of close to 120 percent in 2020 without taking recourse to measures that would entail capital losses or budgetary implications for euro area member states or envisage a more comprehensive Debt-buyback entailing the activation of collective action clauses." It would seem the GGB trade may well be the 'no brainer' trade of the year after these new haircuts.

Things are going from worst to worsterer in Japan. Somewhat ironically (given our recent post), this update to the state of play awaiting Mr. Abe is not good. With the Senkaku debacle flaring still in the background, we wonder just how much 'face' the Japanese are willing to lose as their exports fall 6.5% (for the fifth month in a row) dominated by an 11.6% drop 'to' China (which accounted for around 20% of Japanese exports until recently) making it extremely likely the nation is headed for yet another recession. The trade balance missed large to the downside yet again, extending a multi-year trend (and drastically reducing the 'net' exports capital buffer), and so (as USDJPY remains 'strong' despite REER being well below its 1995 peak) we are to believe yet another JPY1tn Koo-nesian fiscal stimulus will do the trick.

Throw the indicators away. 

Or Maybe the Biggest of All Time ...

Last week, when discussing the next steps for the company, and specifically the hope that mediation may resolve the epic animosity between management and workers, we stated that "What makes a mediation improbable is that the antagonism between the feuding sides has certainly hit a level of no return: "Several unions also objected to the company's plans, saying they made "a mockery" of laws protecting collective bargaining agreements in bankruptcy. The Teamsters, which represents 7,900 Hostess workers, said the company's plan would improperly cut the ability of remaining workers to use sick days and vacation." Sure enough, moments ago we learned that mediation has now failed and the liquidation may proceed. And since in America nobody understands that proper sequence of events involved in a bankruptcy liquidation, where the valuable parts always end up being acquired by someone, in this case the Twinkie brand and recipe, let the pointless Ebay bidding wars over twinkies continue. As for what really happens next, if indeed Bimbo is prohibited from acquiring the assets in the Stalking Horse auction due to anti-trust limitations, then the buyer will almost certainly be a "financial", i.e., another PE firm, whose coming means the end of any hopes and dreams of preserving union status at fresh start Hostess, or whatever the new firm will be named.

Xi Jinping has taken the reigns of the Communist Party. With multiple domestic and international challenges mounting, there is much to be done. The most immediate obstacle to any prospects of major policy shifts lies at the very top.  The new standing committee has a strong conservative presence.  The perception of the new team is that it is dominated by relatively mediocre  and risk-averse leaders. It would be too optimistic or premature to believe that such a delicately balanced body could address China’s problems quickly and decisively. The result of this delicate balancing act is likely a cautious start characterized by the adoption of relatively easy policy measures designed mainly to differentiate the new leadership from its immediate predecessor. The bottom line in evaluating China’s new leadership in general, and Xi in particular:  he and his colleagues will have to walk the walk. His predecessors have done enough talking already.

"When you let the politicians run monetary policy, well, that is how it [ends]... All of the ingredients are there [for Japan now] for this vicious cocktail to fall apart" is how Kyle Bass concludes this broad and succinct recent interview. With total credit market debt-to-GDP globally around 350% (or ~$200 trillion), his thesis remains that many countries will reach their profligate endpoint soon (if not already in Greece's case - where investors have already lost 90c on the dollar); but that managing around this current evolution is the single-hardest period for investing of the last few decades. The modest Texan notes it is naive to think he can call the end of a 70-year debt-super-cycle with any precision (as in mid-December's Japan fiscal data and Abe's election) but when you look at all of the inputs, he believes that Japan has crossed the proverbial Rubicon in the last two months and describes in this rather breathtaking clip how the end of twenty years of conjecture on what may happen to Japan will come to pass.

Something odd popped up while going through the weekly H.6 update...

Umm yeah...close-to-close, equity indices were mixed (Dow small red - HP/IBM, NDX/SPX small green on closing rampfest) amid dismal volumes but for anyone that paid attention to the debacle in the markets today, this was another odd one. Thanks to EUR strength's correlated power (retracing last night's France loss), stocks trickled up all morning into the European close; Bernanke suggested he was not omnipotent and stocks dumped 13 S&P points (~1%) to yesterday's day-session open; and then on no news - as Greece remains unfixed and cease-fire deadlines come and go, we pumped ingloriously on small lots and stupid volume up to VWAP/unch - paused for thought - and then ran to the day's highs just after the close day-session close in S&P futures. Treasuries suffered - yields up 5-6bps on the day as our broad risk-asset proxy lifted along with modest moves in FX carry pairs and USD weakness into the close. Oil was headline-maker (away from BBY and HPQ that is) - down almost 4% from the highs yesterday but closing still green on the week just above $87 as Israel re-flared. Credit was less noisy and VIX compressed a little more to 15.11% at the close (lowest in 5 weeks).

Some odds and ends on taxes.

Tax policy really tells you a lot about a government... what politicians’ values and priorities are. People can SAY anything, but in a way, tax policy is putting their money where their mouths are. For example, politicians like to talk about technology, efficiency and transparency. US tax code is so massive, in fact, that the Government Printing Office charges $1,028 just to print a copy of it! And for most taxpayers, it’s still virtually impossible to file online. Then there are the rates themselves. Again, the message they’re sending is quite clear– citizens, even in death, are dairy cows for the government to milk. Ironically, the new government of the People’s Republic of China has decided the REDUCE their tax on dividends. Years ago it was 20%, then dropped to 10% in 2005. Effective January 1st, though, the dividend tax rate in China will drop to a mere 5%.

Linda Green Bitchez!!!

A beautiful cartoon that exposes the absurdity of the Petraeus saga...