Archive - Nov 2012

Get ready for the "it's all Sandy's fault" barrage, because the post-reelection status quo sure will desperately need it today. The latest initial claims data posted a multi-year high 104,548 surge in weekly NSA claims from 361,800 to 466,348, and even the Seasonally adjusted number soaring from 361K to 439K on expectations of a 375K print. In other words, a complete disaster for any economic data bulls. What is truly amusing is that the same Wall Street "experts" who set expectations were unable to foresee the Sandy effect that every "macrotourist" on Twitter apparently is so very aware of. Also, it is apparently also "Sandy's fault" (now that the Bush excuse is back in retirement) that the prior week's claims were revised from 355K to 361K. Basically, just as we said 3 weeks ago, ignore every negative data point: it is Sandy's fault. However, for the snapback, when there actually is good news to be had, well, "four more years." Finally, to all the Sandy apologists: is the logic here that: if Hurricane, then Fire everyone? Because that is what is implied. To summarize: a hurricane is good for GDP (lots of broken windows), but any actually negative news (surge in firings) is perfectly expected.

I don’t know where Obama learned his negotiating skills, but he needs a tutor.

Listening to Rehn, Van Rompuy, Juncker and their cohorts is rather like listening to the cheerleaders at the football game and their advice on financial matters is probably right in-line with the knowledge of the cheerleaders; but then I don’t want to insult the cheerleaders. Everything is always “good, fine, hailed, welcomed” and the sunrise is always moments away. Europe officially entered into a recession it was just announced this morning. The economy in Europe is so bad now that a picture is only worth two hundred words. The Europeans blame everything on the ratings agencies lately. There is some wisdom to this. “Moody” is how they are feeling and “Standard & Poor” is what they will be feeling soon. Recently in Spain it was reported that a teacher asked one of her students what his father did for a living. The little boy said his father did a striptease in one of the clubs in Madrid. The teacher was shocked and asked if this was true. The young fellow said, “No, he is the head of corporate credit for Bankia but I am too embarrassed to tell anyone.”

The World Gold Council issued a report “Global gold demand reflects challenging global economic climate: ETFs up 56% and India up 9% in Q3 2012”  which showed that global gold demand fell 11% in the three months to September from record levels seen during the same period last year, which was curbed by a sluggish Chinese economy and stronger Indian demand limited the drop. In Q3 2012, gold investment demand (total bar and coin demand plus ETFs and similar products) was 429.9 tonnes down 16% from Q3 2011. Although the year-on-year snapshot for investment demand suggests falling interest, this is not the case. Rather, it highlights the strong demand seen in Q3 2011. Interestingly, demand for ETFs rose 56% to 136t, compared to Q3 2011. Demand for gold-backed ETFs in Q3 grew significantly in the quarter partially due to institutions responding to the additional QE measures in the US and Europe. At 87 tonnes, Q3 2012 investment demand for gold surged from 78 tonnes in Q2, a rise of 12%. Examining this over the longer term, Q3 represents the first quarter-on-quarter increase in Indian investment demand since Q2 2011.

This is what the most brand name US hedge funds bought and sold in the third quarter.

• Wal-Mart misses topline expectations: Revenue $113.93bn, Exp $114.89bn, Sees full year EPS $4.88-$4.93, Exp. $4.94, Unveils new FCPA allegations; Stock down nearly 4%
• China chooses conservative new leaders (FT)
• Eurozone falls back into recession (FT)
• Moody’s to Assess U.K.’s Aaa Rating in 2013 Amid Slowing Economy (Bloomberg)
• Another bailout is imminent: FHA Nears Need for Taxpayer Funds (WSJ)
• Hamas chief vows to keep up "resistance" after Jaabari killed (Reuters)
• Obama calls for rich to pay more, keep middle-class cuts (Reuters)
• Obama Undecided on FBI's Petraeus Probe (WSJ)
• Battle lines drawn over “growth revenue” in fiscal cliff talks (Reuters)
• Rajoy’s Path to Bailout Clears as EU Endorses Austerity (Bloomberg)
• Zhou Seen Leaving PBOC as China Picks New Economic Chiefs (Bloomberg)
• Russia warns of tough response to U.S. human rights bill (Reuters)
• Japan Opposition Leader Ups Pressure on Central Bank (WSJ)
• Zhou Seen Leaving PBOC as China Picks New Economic Chiefs (Bloomberg)

The main overnight event, if not very surprising, was the formal announcement of the power moves at the top of China from the now concluding 18th Communist Party Congress, which occured largely as expected. To summarize: "Xi Jinping took the helm Thursday of a new, trimmed down Communist Party leadership that insiders said was shaped less by the daunting economic and political challenges facing China over the next decade than by bitter personal and factional rivalries within a secretive Party elite.  In a surprise move, Mr. Xi replaced outgoing Party chief Hu Jintao as head of the powerful Central Military Commission, which controls the armed forces, making Mr. Hu the first Communist Chinese leader to cede all formal powers without bloodshed, purges or political unrest. But the new leadership lineup did not include the two figures with the strongest track record on political reform, dimming prospects that a new generation of rulers is committed to tackling vested interests within its own ranks." In other words and just like after the US elections - to quote the announcement during every 2:15 FOMC release from now until eternity - "no change, repeat, no change" (and the SHCOMP closing down 1.22%, and the Hang Seng down by over 1.5% more or less confirmed this). An interactive infographic of who's the new who in China can be found here, while a summary of what this means and what to expect are here and here.  Elsewhere, the other main event was the formal announcement that, as everyone certainly expected, Europe officially is now in a recession. The euro-area economy slipped into a recession for the second time in four years, with GDP falling 0.1 percent in the third quarter. The official start date of Europe's recession is now Q3 2011. And with October Eurozone CPI pushing at a perky pace of 2.5%, one can add stagflation to the official list of terms haunting Europe.

With impeccable timing

It Can't Happen Here, Right?

Presented with little comment since whatever we say would likely be superfluous to this all-encompassing speech. The full Ron Paul 'Farewell to Congress' speech and transcript.

...To achieve liberty and peace, two powerful human emotions have to be overcome.  Number one is 'envy' which leads to hate and class warfare.  Number two is 'intolerance' which leads to bigoted and judgmental policies.  These emotions must be replaced with a much better understanding of love, compassion, tolerance and free market economics. Freedom, when understood, brings people together. When tried, freedom is popular.

 

The best chance for achieving peace and prosperity, for the maximum number of people world-wide, is to pursue the cause of LIBERTY...

If nothing else, read the five greatest dangers that the American people face today that impede the goal of a free society.

$1,130.33 is the average monthly social security benefit. Assuming you worked 40 hours a week, every week, that's the hourly equivalent of $6.40. Where can you live? Will savings save you?

If only the nation’s Founding Fathers could see us now! A Supreme Court totally gone wild, de facto legislating and imposing its will; a Congress, lair of lazy career politicians and self-serving scoundrels; and an Executive, wearing reversible togas colored blue and red, running the nation as an empire, and using the country’s military as police force for multi-national predatory capitalism… subsidized by taxpayers from America’s lower and middle classes. Are we at the embryo stage of a major military scandal… a Miligate? Petraeus and Allen are two Samson-characters who availed their modern day Delilah(s) with a razor-sharp lack of common sense. Paula Broadwell, Jill Kelley and Natalie Khawan are neither geishas, nor courtesans... perhaps more of a groupie-variety around the military. Let’s all be concerned with pressuring the politicians to defuse the “fiscal cliff,” and wait until appropriate investigations are concluded to determine whether there is a Miligate.

Much is made of the 'apparent' bubble in Treasury bonds - a 30-year or so relatively consistent trend in government bonds (through thick and thin) and yet allocations remain minimal compared to our increasingly similar Japanese friends have experienced. It would seem to us, thanks to Bernanke's 'visible' hand that the real bubble is in spread product - as rates are so compressed, investors seemingly oblivious to the word 'risk' (unintended consequence) have flooded into ever-increasing yield/spread products - with high-yield bonds now dominated by these technical inflows (as we noted in the close today). If ever the combination of anchoring bias, 'dance while the music is playing', and herding was evident, it is in corporate credit. To wit, the total disengagement from reality (both real 'micro' earnings and 'macro' economic uncertainty) that a flood of money has created in this increasingly crowded (and increasingly-er illiquid) market. Managers are well aware that the liquidity tsunami has moved the maturity mountain (as Citi's Matt King notes) but has helped the weeds as well as the roses.

With just 5 days needed for the Texas secession petition to surpass 100,000 signatories, all is not well with the Union. Actually, not only are things not well with the Union, things are getting worse by the minute, as American society splinters into diametrical opposites to a degree not seen in decades, a process which in itself virtually assures there will be no cliff compromise before the opportunity cost of ending the stand off becomes far too great. And with the option of the Mr. Chairman "getting to work" to fix things, one wonders - is even the market a motivating enough factor given a 20, 30 or even 50% drop in the rearview mirror: after all as the Fed has demonstrated, there is no need for a fiscal compromise to get the S&P to just shy of all time highs. Certainly, even America's politicians are very much aware of this by now (of course, this assumes that Bernanke is still in charge of the market: something we have claimed for two months is very much in question). Regardless, with the topic of secession on everybody's lips, here is what none other than Ron Paul has said about this suddenly very volatile issue.