Archive - Nov 2012

By now everyone knows how Americans feel about America: one quarter of the population (the half of the less than half that voted) is convinced the US is plunging into a socialist void that would make the USSR proud, another quarter of the population is furious at the wealthy and demands that they be taxed up the wazoo because "they didn't build that" but certainly profited from it, and is demanding wealth and income redistribution, while the silent majority is quietly picking up whatever pieces it can, and batting down the hatches, seeing very well, beyond the fog of bias and subjectivity, the inevitable epic deleveraging disaster, followed by even more epic printing that is coming this way. But how does the rest of the world see the US, especially now that the fiscal cliff (and the much less discussed debt ceiling debate: why, we don't know - it was "merely" the debt ceiling that led to a 20% drop in 2011). Yesterday, German financial media Spiegel provided a glimpse into just how Europe, which is in deep feces itself, sees America. The verdict: the next Greece.

Earlier we asked a simple question:

What time is the all time highest UMich Consumer Sentiment out?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 9, 2012

the answer is 9:55... and while not an all time high, LOLfidence, pardon, CONfidence just printed the highest number since July 2007!

Here's why you shouldn't trust sell-side research analyst expectations. Their 'normal' pattern is extrapolate trends in a lemming-like chase to be the headline-maker of the day ($1111 AAPL price-targets for instance) and then - when it's just too obvious (or when the company in question actually 'misses' what they extrapolated by a mile cough JCP cough) - they knee-jerk react at turning points - when it is already too late. So the next time someone on TV 'projects' value based on earnings or tries to convince you to part with your hard-earned money on a stock with great earnings prospects, perhaps this chart will remind you to reduce that exposure. The simple fact is - they do not know; and with the macro 'forest' becoming increasingly binary in its outlook, focusing on the micro 'trees' and supposed 'diversification' is irrelevant as correlations snap and as Goldman notes 'big revisions are the norm' as bottom-up earnings data (guided by the ever cautiously optimistic CEOs) is always slow to reflect much weaker macro data.

Just out from Bloomberg:

• RBS, UBS TRADERS SAID TO FACE ARREST WITHIN MONTH IN LIBOR CASE

Note the word "traders" - not CEOs, not COOs, not General Counsels, not Managers, not Supervisors... Traders. Because remember: it was a scheming 28-year old Frenchman that was the mastermind behind Goldman's CDO fraud for years. Nobody else. Just him. That said, we are looking forward to the latest minimum prison reality TV show: "How Many Cigarettes* For A Bollinger?"

We outline various fundamental and technical characteristics of each of the three stages of a standard rally such that one could use the blueprint in identifying an imminent top. The table below leverages statistics compiled from the prior decade from various selloffs (i.e. > 7%) which have produced consistent patterns that help traders ascertain the potential depth and duration of the current downward move.

Last night, Japan issued an update of its total public debt. The number was ¥983 as of September 30. Trillion. The bad news is that the long anticipated currency legend which will finally say "¥ in Quadrillions" is once more delayed. The good news, is that with the recently expanded BOJ QE8 and QE9, the excess monetization debt capacity, a lot of its going to sweep the aftermath of Fukushima under the rug, will promptly be filled, and we fully expect the December 31, 2012 debt update to finally bring us to the first instance of the word "quadrillion" used in the context of a modern, developed nation.

Gold is 3.35% higher and silver 4.53% higher this week in US dollars in the aftermath of Obama's re-election.  Gold in euros looks set to break out above €1,400/oz and is 4.1% higher and in sterling gold has risen 3.7% so far this week. Silver is 5.25% higher in euros and 4.8% higher in pounds. Gold and silver are set for higher weekly closes in all fiat currencies which may negate the recent bearish short term technical picture and set the precious metals up for the traditional yearend rally.  The data clearly shows that November is gold's strongest month and one of silver's strongest months. December, January and February are also strong months - prior to a period of weakness is often seen in March.

Another day another sell-off…with equity markets in Europe trending steadily lower after it was reported that the decision on Greek aid will not be taken during the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for November 12. Still, EU official said that there will be no Greek default on November 16th (EUR 4.1bln redemptions) and that this redemption is to be "factored in" decision on disbursement. Separately, analysts at Fitch rating agency noted that while current Spain’s rating is appropriate, further action would more likely than not be to sub-investment grade. Moody’s also commented on the never-ending sovereign debt crisis today, stating that actions taken by the ECB only buying time for Euro region and that a decision on France will be communicated within a few weeks. As a result, bond and credit spreads widen further today, with SP/GE 10s spread at 450 level, which is of particular importance given that this is the level at which the LCH begins to review bonds for margin requirements. Deterioration in Italian paper was linked to next week’s supply. In turn, EUR/USD and GBP/USD trended lower, with the USD index up 0.12% at last check. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest U. Michigan Survey (Nov P), as well as macro forecasts from Philadelphia Fed.

• Greek Aid Payment Call Won’t Be Made Next Week, EU Official (Bloomberg)
• Eurozone faces brinkmanship on Greece (FT)
• Pressure Rises on Fiscal Crisis (WSJ)
• The JC Penney massacre continues (BBG) - In other news, any minute now Bill Ackman will get that 15x return...
• SEC left computers vulnerable to cyber attacks (Reuters) cue "back door Trojan" jokes
• Former Goldman trader accused of fraud (FT)
• Elizabeth Warren's Inadvertent Best Friends: Wall Street and Republicans (BusinessWeek)
• Zurbruegg Says Managing SNB Currency Reserves Is Major Challenge (BBG)
• Obama ally leads push on fiscal cliff (FT)
• Britain threatens to block banking union (FT)
• PBOC’s Zhou Says China’s Economy Improving as Data Due (Bloomberg)
• China slaps duties on steel tube imports (FT)
• Obama to Make Statement on Economic Growth, Cutting Deficit (Bloomberg)

With expectations that Europe will once again become a flaming powderkeg after the US elections are over running high, Europe has so far not disappointed. And as usual, the focal catalyst of greatest pain remains Greece, which is only now learning what ZH readers knew days ago, namely that the Greek "austerity" vote was merely theater, and that Europe, i.e., Germany, has certainly not decided to release any of the much needed cash that Greece needs not only to run its society but to make a key bond payment on November 16. Confirming this was German finance ministry spokeswoman Marianne Kothe, who said on Friday that Eurozone finance ministers will probably not be able to decide at their upcoming Eurogroup meeting on Monday whether to disburse a badly-needed €31.5 billion loan tranche to Greece, as MNI reported earlier. "Speaking at a regular government press conference here, Kothe reminded that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble needs the approval of the German Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, before being able to approve any further aid for Greece. “It will be difficult to achieve this by next Monday,” she said." In other words, the Greek default is suddenly in the hands of the German people, of whom at last check  about 60% wanted Greece gone. There is yet hope for Greece, with a story overnight running that George Soros is ready to commit "serious funds to aid Greece." Surely that generosity too will end well for the Greek people who by now must feel as if they are in the 5th circle of a NWO globalization hell.

And why not with her on top of the heap?

From an outright libertarian, the headline seems contrary; but Ron Paul's affirmation that "pure democracy is dangerous" critically confirms what Romney accidentally admitted: that enabling the majority to dictate the minority is a problem when the majority are receiving a [government] check. Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu looks a little shocked when the thoughtful Paul confirms bluntly that the reelection of Obama is driven simply by 'the people' being on the 'receiving end' of government benefits and that the US is "so far gone; we're over the cliff already." From the lack of credibility in Washington to GOP's 'acceptance' of higher taxes and why he quit Congress, Ron Paul succinctly reminds many of the true state of the union in which we live... "As long as you think we have to please the world and run this welfare state, all we will argue about is who will get the loot."

Back in the late 1980s, the entire business world was obsessed with Japan. It's no wonder that this was the case: here was a country which had emerged from the ashes of World War 2 and had become the world's second-largest economy. They made high-quality cars, consumer electronics, semiconductors, plus they seemed to have a management style and work ethic that put the "good old USA" to shame.

While markets are digesting the probabilities of a dramatic rise in taxes and cut in spending as we approach the fiscal cliff, it appears that behind-the-scenes there has been a secret plan that we can only imagine is designed to rocket-boost us over the cliff - new manned missions to the moon. As Space.com reports, NASA is serious about sending astronauts back to the moon's neighborhood and will likely unveil its ambitious plans soon now that President Barack Obama has been re-elected, experts say. They go on to comment that "The space agency has apparently been thinking about setting up a manned outpost beyond the moon's far side, both to establish a human presence in deep space and to build momentum toward a planned visit to an asteroid in 2025. The new plans have probably already been cleared with the Obama Administration but have been kept under wraps in case Republican candidate Mitt Romney won Tuesday night's (Nov. 6) presidential election." While the claims are that this will not increase the budget, we suspect out-of-this-world manned outposts cost a little more than the $17.7bn budgeted for NASA in 2013... someone is clearly eating space-cakes. Ironic really given our earlier post...