Archive - Nov 2012

A stock sell off is usually a healthy, cathartic thing: one sells, pockets the proceeds, books a loss, and comes back to fight another day. The big problem, however, is when speculators and traders are already massively overleveraged, and not only don't have a positive Net Worth (defined as Free Credit Cash Account and Credit Balances in Margin Accounts less Margin Debt) but their Margin Debt is so high it commences a toxic loop of selling merely to fund margin calls which usually start popping up in the last hour of trading (and when trading desks put their phones straight to VM), leading to more forced selling, more margin calls, and so on. And therein lies the rub: according to the most recent NYSE margin debt data, the market complacency recently hit such high levels, that speculators virtually went all in, but solely in their margin accounts without holding any cash buffer to pay for potential margin calls. As can be seen on the table below, Margin Debt as of 9/30 hit $315 billion: a jump of $30 billion from the prior month, and the highest since March 2011, just before the market tanked. And confirming that there is simply no cash on hand to pay for margin calls when they start pouring in after today's massive sell off, is the total Net Worth, which in September was the lowest since April. Because with record complacency, and the Fed guaranteeing no further shocks are possible, who needs to hold cash? Today, we will find out: just as soon as the margin calls start coming around around 3PM Eastern...

The first day of the "next 4 years" is starting in a very auspicious fashion. First, the market crashes. Then, a major blue chip company, Boeing, just announced it would cut 30% of management jobs from 2010 levels. And finally, the US Treasury just added $24 billion in debt, or enough to fund Greece for over one year, sending the total debt load (the US is now at 103% debt/GDP) ever closer to the debt ceiling breaching $16.4 trillion. But don't worry: over the next 4 years, the US government will add another $6-8 trillion in debt, so those who didn't get their allocation in this auction will have more than enough opportunity. As for this one, the yield was 1.68%, the lowest since August (but, but, what happened to the great rotation out of bonds and into stocks?), the Bid to Cover was 2.59, the lowest since last November and only higher compared to August' 2.49. And finally, the take down breakdown was uneventful: 46.2% for Dealers (to be promptly flipped back to the Fed - keep track of CUSIP 912828TY6), 39.7% for Indirects, or below the 12 TTM average of 41.28%, and Directs got 14.1%, also below the average, and lower than last month's 22.9%. As noted: uneventful. As also noted: there will be many, many more such auctions in the future, so those who wish to convert one paper into another will have ample opportunity to do so.

Stocks tend to experience very long periods (5-20 years) of either anemic or exceptional returns, which UBS calls Investment Regimes. Somewhat surprisingly (to some), they note that returns during these periods are not driven by divergences in economic or earnings growth. Rather, Investment Regimes are defined by secular multiple expansion or contraction - and it is critical to understand this dynamic as over the past 40 years (and four regimes) investors have tended to focus on only one dynamic at a time. From the 'Disco' regime to the 'Hangover II', UBS explains in a few simple charts why all eyes should be focused on high-yield credit - as we have noted time and again. Inflation signals are gone, the 'Fed model' is broken, and investment grade credit is too repressed to matter (until it does!)...

While we await the Greek parliament vote on yet further Troika-mandated austerity, which the government has promised to be the last such round of cuts, or at least the last one before Germany demands even more austerity for a country which is now, supposedly "too big" in Merkel's words, here is how the general population is preparing for the vote's outcome, which, if it passes, will be by a razor thin margin. Also, as a friendly reminder the May 6, 2010 flash crash occurred just as the video stream of the first Greek riot peaked...

We are programed to cheer and act out our sheep-like roles in partisan politics when, like the game, unless we have money bet on the outcome the actual winner will have absolutely no impact on our lives. The bottom line is that voting percentages generate credibility for the failed American political system. "There's not a dime's worth of difference between the Democrat and Republican parties." George Wallace, 1966 Alabama governor and presidential candidate. Romney lost for two main reasons: First, as he correctly noted during the campaign, 47 percent of American families are dependent on government handouts and they voted for what was in their own best interests; and second, the GOP leadership antagonized the 10 percent of the Republican Party electorate who supported Ron Paul for President. And so over the next four years the people will be provoked and buy more guns they will never have the courage to use to defend themselves against an all-powerful government. The game will go on until the time is up for our nation. It is time we as a generation man up for liberty to redeem ourselves in the tear-filled eyes of future generations. The American people must work peacefully to restore the Articles of Confederation now or else suffer the permanent consequences of the fall of America.

"Pinball Wizard" (Bunds 1,38% -5; Spain 5,68% +4; Stoxx 2486 -1,8%; EUR 1,276)

Presented with no comment...

Comes from Angela Merkel:

• MERKEL SAYS GREEK STATE IS TOO BIG -BBG

It is unclear, for now, if Angela added that "the German state is too small."

Will 24bln more 10yr notes be enough to satisfy this Risk Off demand?  Enquiring minds want to know...

It seems like only last night everyone was celebrating more hope, if not much change. Now comes the hangover. The Dow Jones intraday drop is now 2.23% (and rising), greater than the biggest drop so far in 2012 record on June 1. The last time the market plunged as much: literally one year ago, or November 9, 2011. Sadly, it appears that one can't have their Dow Jones Industrial Average and redistribute it too.

UPDATE: Within the first 90 minutes of the open, AAPL has traded down to under $564 - officially entering bear-market territory (down 3.4% today)... These are 5-month lows for AAPL

From the $705.07 jubilant highs on 9/21, the most widely held stock among hedge funds is sliding in the pre-market very close to its bear-market barrier. A 20% slide from those 'peak AAPL' levels is around $564, less than $10 away. For some this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime as those $1111 price targets and Apple TVs are far from 'priced in'; for others, every VWAP rip is now faded and orderly lines are being formed at the 'get me out of this' window... What was the alpha-generating master-of-the-universe-making stock in the last few years, is now the overweight, over-crowded, waiting-for-the-straw-on-the-camel's-back holding that managers love to hate as their bogeys drift and portfolios plunge. So much for buying high-beta to chase performance eh?

The Status Quo won--no surprise there, as there was no other choice offered. The Imperial Presidency won, too, of course; anyone anywhere can still be assassinated by order of the Imperial President, regardless of their citizenship. Anyone can be labeled "an enemy of the State" and either liquidated (high fives all around!) or crushed by the Espionage Act (transparency is a crime), Patriot Act (dissent is also criminal), the NDAA, or maybe another Executive Order. The neofeudal Aristocracy also won, as vested interests were free to buy "free speech" in unlimited quantities. That means the bag of tricks to "save us from recession" is finally empty. The next recession will sink its teeth into the Savior State and all the protected fiefdoms and cartels with a vengeance built up by four years of "extend and pretend." The failure of "extend and pretend" and the Status Quo that sold it as the "fix" opens up the possibility that crisis will lead to real reform, the kind that requires a Constitutional Convention.

Retirement-Off! The Dow just crossed back under the magical 13,000 level for the first time in two months...Having crossed this rubicon for the first time on Februray 21st, we can reflect on eight months well spent... and the sound of millions of retirees sifting through the 'Help Wanted' pages is deafening - as those 'young-people' that voted for change will continue to participate less in the workforce.

This is what complete social collapse looks like. First, the local Neo Nazi party has soared in the polls and is now the third most popular Greek party. Then, in lieu of other sources of capital, a local brothel became the head sponsor of a minor-league soccer club from Larissa. Now, the same brothel which appears to have seen a substantial return on its advertising spend, has decided to branch out. Straight into a local school. That's right: a whorehouse is advertising its "services" to children in an elementary school. In exchange for what? Money to purchase a Xerox machine and a library.

How's this for a Harry Potter-like Incantation? Margin up magic, go short math! Believe Germany will escape unscathed, prepare to take a bath!