Archive - Nov 2012

As we warned here first, and as the sellside crew finally caught on, while the key macro event this week is the US presidential election, the one most "under the radar" catalyst will take place in Greece (currently on strike for the next 48 hours, or, "as usual") on Wednesday, when a vote to pass the latest round of Troika mandated austerity (too bad there is no vote to cut corruption and to actually collect taxes) takes place even as the government coalition has now torn, and there is a high probability the ruling coalition may not have the required majority to pass the vote, which would send Greece into limbo, and move up right back from the naive concept of Grimbo and right back into Grexit. Which is why the market's attention is slowly shifting to Europe once more, and perhaps not at the best time, as news out of the old continent was anything but good: Spain's October jobless claims rose by 128,242, higher than the estimated 110,000 and the biggest jump in 9 months, bringing the total number of unemployed to 4,833,521, a rise of 2.7%, according to official statistics released Monday. This means broad Spanish unemployment is now well above 25%.  In the UK, the Services PMI plunged from 52.2 to 50.6, which was the lowest print in nearly two years or since December 2010, and proved that the Olympics-driven bump of the past few months is not only over, but the vicious snapback has begun.

Given that every single election in our lifetimes has been a sham between two candidates that serve the same money master, do something much more constructive and helpful for America than wasting your time and energy at the voting polls tomorrow.

With the dominance of IT spend (whether consulting or outsourcing) in many of today's investment theses, Morgan Stanley's new forward-looking models should have more than a few long-only money managers rocking quietly in the corner of the office (especially given IBM's dominance of the Dow). Their proprietary models (discussed below) predict decelerating revenues in both consulting and outsourcing through Q2 2013 reflecting the weak discretionary spend environment. The inflection in outsourcing is particularly notable and is far from priced in with the velocity of the fall suggesting 2009-like cutbacks. After the last recession's drop, IT outsourcing was a key area of cost reduction that also provided additional revenues for a new sector; one has to wonder if the recovery this time would be so acute (since sooner rather than later the cutting of fat leads to lascerations in the muscle).

Countries that have the luxury of their own exchange rate are able to eliminate any loss in competitiveness through an exchange rate depreciation, but (as is broadly recognized by now) UBS reminds that in a single currency area the only route available is an adjustment in relative wages. "Integrate or die" is how they describe it as the impact of even a Greek exit is now well-known as the start of the end for the euro as bank runs would instantaneously begin. Instead of instantaneous devaluation (exit) - akin to tearing the (admittedly big) band-aid off, the devaluation will be undertaken over time to restore competitiveness, with the brunt of the adjustment taking place through wages and inflation. This equilibrium 'devaluation' is impossible to know with certainty, but UBS estimates it is over 20% for Greece and 15% for Spain. How patient will the market be in waiting for the promise of integration to cover this slow and steady competitive devaluation; or alternatively how patient will Greece's poverty-stricken population put up with it? The reflexive nature of the market will accelerate any perceived move in this direction... a 'painless' 15-20% devaluation in Greece and Spain backed by the ECB's promises seems to us the stuff of hopes and dreams and unicorn farts.

The following is a list of key events (and commentary) to watch over the next two months. From Germany's voting phases for Greek aid to various national strikes and regional elections, there's plenty here of critical importance to the future of the sovereign debt crisis.

It would appear, based on the latest war games from Israel's Institute of National Security Studies, that we should all go back to sleep and not worry about the impact of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. The reason not to worry is simple - either it ignites World War III (which we presume means it will be all over very rapidly and we will be blissfully unaware until its too late to be capable of achieving anything) or - as they suspect (and gamed out) - there will be a focus on 'containment and restraint' with Iran unable to ignite the Middle East. The result is predicated on 'actors' motivated by rational considerations; which seems entirely irrational. All the gory details below...

With Greece and Spain (and arguably Portugal and a few others) stuck in dramatic debt-deflation spirals, the political need for maintaining these nations in the euro far outweigh the economic 'benefits'. As UBS notes, looking at the euro area today, one cannot help but notice the parallels to Japan of the early 1990s. Europe today, as with Japan a generation ago, is an aging society with structural rigidities, pockets of corporate excellence, but wide swathes of inefficiency; but the two most striking similarities (and not in a good way) lie in the banking system (bloated from over-leveraging, under-capitalization, and bad loans); and fiscal policy (which is inherently pro-cyclical - as the politics of monetary union preclude national level stimulus - leaving ineffective monetary transmission channels unable to help fiscal failure). As UBS concludes, the current euro's similarities to Japan are key impediments to growth - and as such we should expect sclerotic economic activity for a five-year period.

The number of people in Greece classified as living below the poverty line reached 2.34 million (or over 20% of their 11.3 million population). Ekathimerini reports that the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) has released data from 2010, the first update of this frightful data series post austerity measures. Household spending has dropped dramatically in the two years since then suggesting the current picture is considerably worse. Still, comparing apples to slightly smaller apples, CIA data shows Greece now considerably more impoverished than Iran, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Mexico, and the West Bank. The EUR6,591 per annum poverty line in Greece compares to average per capita income of EUR12,637 but what is perhaps most worrisome - as social unrest continues to rise - is that Greece is among the European countries with the greatest financial inequalities, as the richest 20% of the population had an annual income that was six times that of the poorest 20%.

Tired of pundits with black boxes and book deals telling you the election is a done deal because some statistically-sampling, biased, Garbage In, Garbage Out model "said so" (remember when the same GIGO logic made every structured piece of toxic RMBS toxic be rated AAA simply because the rating agency models couldn't account for the improbable case of real estate prices actually going down?) Then decide for yourselves. With 48 hours left until polls close, below are the 512 permutating paths available to the two candidates on their way to the White House throne (assuming the other states vote the way they are "expected"). And with the election having crossed far beyond mere theatrical tragicomedy and now well into NCAA finals knock out fever, one can see why Florida and Ohio are really all the matter.

Otherwise, it would take down the entire universe.

It will take two weeks+ to resolve the election of 2012

China Quietly Becoming Gold Superpower

Mitt Romney's policy statements have this far been quite hawkish on both the approach to 'dealling' with adversaries and on the funding of the military (growing DoD by 2,5% per year). President Obama on the other hand wants to build consensus and have us move in tandem with our allies. As such, he wants to keep our military spending relatively flat and encourage our allies to spend more. For everything you wanted to know about their policy and budget differences, but were afraid to even contemplate, as well as fiscal and threat realities, these four charts are critical. No matter the winner, the next President faces difficult fiscal realities given the $1T+ deficits of the day. He’ll also face a threat environment that includes a potentially “nuclear” Iran, an emerging China, an unstable middle-East, a frosty Russia, and a growing concern over cyber security.

Back in the summer of 2010, when the SEC was still desperate to (laughably) scapegoat the May 6 Flash Crash on Waddell and Reed, in an attempt to telegraph to the public that it was in control of the HFT takeover of the stock market (an attempt which has since failed miserably as days in which there are no occult trading phenomena have become the outlier and have resulted in the wholesale dereliction of stock trading by retail investors), we first presented and endorsed the Nanex proposal that the flash crash was an "on demand" (either on purpose or by mistake) event, one which occurred as a result of massive quote stuffing which prevented regular way trading from occuring and resulting in a 1000 DJIA point plunge in minutes  (the audio track to which is still a must hear for anyone who harbor any doubt the market is "safe"). It turns out that in the nearly 3 years since that fateful market crash, not only has nothing been done to repair the market (ostensibly broken beyond repair and only another wholesale crash, this time without DKed trades, and bailed out banks, could possible do something to change the status quo) but the Denial of Service (DoS) attacks that HFT algos launch, for whatever reason, have become a daily occurrence as the following demonstrations from Nanex confirm beyond a shadow of a doubt.