Archive - Dec 2012

We recently posted Kyle Bass’s keynote speech at the Americatalyst 2012 conference. One of the main threads running through his thesis is the “Keynesian Endpoint”; covering debt super-cycles, the Federal Reserve’s inability to move rates from 0% and the (unintuitive) interconnectedness of sovereign default and hyperinflation. By way of clarification to global Ponzi we discussed earlier, Addogram has created an excellent infographic plotting the development of these ideas and mechanisms from 1792 to the present day.

It’s getting hot: “unprecedented waves” of people are bailing out — not just the super-wealthy

A Cassandra is a hopelessly honest person, while a Pollyanna is an incredibly hopeful person, the incurable optimist. Cassandras are often disparaged as "nattering nabobs of negativism/negativity," instead of being looked upon as prophetic realists, while Pollyannas are deservedly dismissed as the "pandering puppies of positivity/positivism." To wit, this wondrously self-satirical clip pitting Marc Faber's doom-and-gloom reality with Becky Quick's boom-and-boom status quo.

I am not sure what to make of this tidbit of information, but it does point out how silly and fickle investors have become.

The developed world’s Ponzi scheme is caused by record-high levels of public and private debt. As Boston Consulting Group notes, it is exacerbated by huge unfunded liabilities that will be impossible to pay off owing to long-term changes in developed-world demographics. Addressing these challenges at any time would be difficult. To make matters even worse, however, BCG points out that they come at a moment when the developed world’s traditional model of economic growth appears to be broken. This is partly a consequence of the Ponzi scheme itself. The underlying issues cannot be ignored any longer. The developed world faces a day of reckoning. It is time to act. In this excellent layman's guide to the the real world, not only does BCG explain the Ponzi, but they lay out ten critical steps that developed economies must take to definitively end the era of Ponzi finance. Some are sacrifices required of various stakeholders. Others are new social investments, both public and private, that are needed in order to return to a sustainable growth path.

There are, according to USA Today, 364 items that need to be purchased to create the ultimate gift basket from the epic holiday song "The 12 Days of Christmas". Based on PNC Wealth's Christmas Price index, the cost of this basket is $107,300 in 2012 (up 6.1% year-over-year). Since 2001, when the Fed embarked upon its uber-expansionary monetary policy experiments, the cost of Christmas has risen over 40% faster than the Government's prescribed CPI (and if we use a different cost-base, since 2006, the cost of Christmas has risen 46% per year on average). And on an even more Bah! Humbug note, there is the important economic question of the Deadweight Loss of Christmas - i.e. gift-giving means consumption choices are made by someone other than the final consumer, with potentially sub-optimal micro-economic effects such as a mismatch with the recipient's preferences. This wonderfully positive report finds that between 10% and 33% of the value of gifts 'given' is destroyed through this inefficiency (with cash - or gold - the least impacted?). Happy Holidays, everyone!

The slew of economic releases over the last couple of days have all had two things in common:  1) the data has been markedly improved which has given a silver lining to the economic storm clouds we have witnessed over the last several months; and 2) the fingerprint of Hurricane Sandy has been very visible.  This is not a surprise. The question that needs to be addressed, however, is whether these surges are sustainable in the months ahead?

Forget Facebook; Bob Pisani would be cock-a-hoop. Imagine the euphoria and excitement from a Fed IPO? What better way for the rich to get even richer than to buy shares in the world's most profitable hedge fund. And for those saying this is preposterous and that central banks should never trade publicly we bring you exhibit A: The Bank of Japan

Why'd the Fed announce QE 4? Three reasons: the US economy is nose-diving again and the Fed is acting preemptively. The Fed is trying to provide increased liquidity going into the fiscal cliff. The Fed is funding the US’s Government massive deficits.

From Gas Prices to Food Stamps; from 'Bulk Ammo' to Consumer Confidence; and from Earnings to Economic Data, these 12 charts of the 12 months of 2012 are definitely Not Jim Cramer's.

2013, which is still a week away, is already off to a 'crazy pills' bang. Because while the bulk of the politipunditry is shocked, shocked, that it was dead wrong about the Cliff outcome which is now set to ram the country front and center on January 1, the most amusement appears to be emanating from the land of the rising sun, where the brand new PM just issued an ultimatum to the central bank, which can be summarized as follows: stop being independent, or we will change the laws and take away your independence.

Yesterday, the man planted by Goldman to be Italy's unelected leader in November 2011, officially stepped down and shortly thereafter his government was dissolved in advance of the February 25, 2013 elections. Yet Monti, under whose helm Italy has been in deep recession since the middle of last year, where consumer spending is falling at its fastest rate since World War Two and unemployment has risen to a record high above 11 percent, and whose candidacy is vastly unpopular with the Italian population, moments ago generously offered to continue being Italy's unelected leader: just the way Europe's political masterclass and its central bankers want it, if not so much Italy's people.

Failing to Prosecute White Collar Crime Guarantees a Weak and Unstable Economy … and Future Financial Crashes

A twisted Christmas tradition...