Archive - Dec 2012

Update: an unexpected setback for Boehner appears to have appeared with rumors that there may not be enough votes in support of Plan B. As a result the vote on Plan B is for now delayed, and the Republican leaders are said to plan a 7:45pm conference. Suddenly it is becoming a real nailbiter. Stay tuned and grab your popcorn.

The first key vote on the House's docket - the Spending Cut Bill, i.e. the Sequester removal, has just passed as widely expected, by a vote of 215-209 with 21 Republicans voting now. Shortly thereafter, the House will vote on the "Plan B" Boehner tax proposal which too is expected to pass the House, and then be blocked by the Senate. At that point the Fiscal Cliff debate for 2012 is likely to be shelved and reopened in 2013 only after the consequences of the Fiscal Cliff have taken place. A final resolution may well stretch out into March, as we predicted previously, when the drop dead decision date is due - that coinciding with the debt ceiling increase, which by mid-March will no longer be extendable.  Watch the vote live below.

Manufacturing industries have helped drive economic growth and rising living standards for nearly three centuries, and for some developing economies (as McKinsey notes in a recent report) continues to do so. Things are changing, however, as manufacturing output (as measured by gross value added) grew by 2.7% annually in advanced economies and 7.4% in large developing economies (from 2000 up until 2007); the leaders are changing rapidly China, India and Russia rise and Germany, Japan, UK, and Canada are sliding. The following chart simplifies the evolution of global manufacturing economies over the last four decades.

With every man, woman, and child now firmly aboard the 'RIMM is back' bandwagon, the squeeze in after-hours trading appears to have had a 30-minute half-life. It seems the Blackberry-maker just can't get a break. Two words "iconic" and "Kodak" come to mind... RIMM is now -9% on the day, after being up 4% at the day-session close and up over 13% on earnings news... oops. Paging Eric Jackson? RIMM -20% from after-hours highs

Was the shooting of 20 students in Newtown, Connecticut the Neo-Liberal version of 9/11?  The question merits considerable thought, but let me explain further what I mean.  In the aftermath of the 9/11 World Trade Center attacks, a sense of shock and awe sunk into the minds of the American populace like nothing seen in decades.   This overwhelming fear, this logic crippling terror, infected the public to more destructive ends than any deadly virus in existence.  Conservatives were especially vulnerable to the infectious symptoms of the event, abandoning all reason and even their small government values to support the fascist inklings of the Bush Administration. More than a decade later, the Neo-Liberal (fake liberal) Obama Administration and its minions continue the Bush legacy by exploiting our latest tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary as a means to an end; a political opportunity to assert federal authority as more valuable than constitutional freedom. If you can’t convince people through rational debate that your position is the correct one, and, if you have to threaten them, lie to them, or brainwash them before they will adopt your ideas, then there is something wrong with your ideas.

What creates real efficiency and competition are not eras of wealth and largesse, but eras of scarcity and change.  A good analogy is that war creates better armies and better weapons, not prolonged periods of peace.   Bernanke of course has zero understanding of what happens to large companies when financial reality is made irrelevant, and capital is made plentiful.  (Growth and efficiency are by no means a logical result). This is what happens when academics who are deeply inexperienced in business run monetary policy designed to stimulate business.   The market is going to bend him over the table and humiliate him eventually.  And then all that capital that he injected into the market is going to evaporate, and a generation of Americans will be financially obliterated.

For all economies, the relative pressure of ‘tailwinds’ in relation to ‘headwinds’ will be crucial for the outcome of economic activity. In the chart below, Barclays shows a heat-map that represents their subjective assessment of the relative balance of forces from 2012 into 2013 and beyond. In 2013, the fiscal headwind continues to loom large and is an important basis of caution despite the strong improvement in financial conditions. The fiscal headwind is unlikely to abate by much in the US and Europe until 2014, possibly later. Other sources of ‘headwind’ are likely to continue during 2013; these include private sector de-leveraging in the highly indebted parts of Europe, as well as political uncertainty (in this context, we observe the elections in Italy (Q1) and Germany (Q4)). Monetary policy, policy reforms, and the financial markets themselves are the main tailwinds as vol suppression continues. Headwinds vs Tailwinds once again in 2013...

Despite EURUSD trading in a 10pip range all afternoon (flat), a significant divergence in VIX (bearish), and a roundtrip to unchanged in Treasuries (flat), equity markets did what they do best - levitate. Volume slipped but was not terrible (as did average trade size) suggesting this strength is hardly the stuff of professional rotation (no matter what we are told to believe). For most of the day session stocks trod water in a small range but into the close (ahead of the vote tonight), S&P 500 futures went vertical amid absolutely and utterly no news whatsoever, blowing through yesterday's closing VWAP and beyond led by financials (now +4.375% on the week). Futures kept going after the close completely wiping out yesterday's losses. Silver came off the lows of the week marginally in the afternoon but ends today down 7.2% for the week as Copper and Gold follow it lower (and WTI +3% on the week). We suspect the liftathon is a remnant of the lack of size sellers (knowing there is no liquidity to move into) who are aggressively protecting via options. Most-Shorted names are the best performers once again.

Update: market so far seems to be happy with extracting cash from working capital so is squeezing the shorts 8% higher after hours

Moments ago Blackberry stock was halted in advance of earnings. Here they are.

The good:

• Revenues: $2.72bn, Est. $2.66 bn - beat
• EPS: -$0.22, Est. -$0.35 - beat
• Cash increase of approximately $600 million to $2.9 billion; Cash flow from operations was approximately $950 million

The bad:

• Subscriber base: 79 million, down from 80 million
• Phone units sold 6.9 million, down from 7.4 million
• RIM's Chief Information Officer, Robin Bienfait, announces retirement
• "The Company expects that there will be continued pressure on operating results as it gets set to launch its BlackBerry 10 platform in the fourth quarter"

There have been very few times where in my 40+ years of capital markets participation that I’ve strongly believed that we have witnessed a significant, material, public but seemingly under-discussed, under appreciated watershed event that will over the next several years, impact capital markets in a profound manner.  The recent announcement by the Fed that they were to pursue the future course of monetary policy with direct regard to a specific, numerical level of unemployment in my mind, represents exactly one of those rare events. While the optics of the recent decision to accept an active target of the unemployment rate might be well meant, socially responsible and politically correct, the dependency upon the single datum construct already of a highly controversial nature may well likely reduce further the credibility of the Federal Reserve’s monetary efforts, thereby leading to slower economic growth, hiring and economic well being as adverse unintended consequences. Indeed, another triumph of form over substance wherein appearances of a literally wondrous intent might soothe the fevered brows of the public but remain entirely within the manipulative province of the data managers.

The Bernanke Banking Put enriched the banks, extended the unemployment line, and created a margin call in the retail specialty sector. All in a days work.

If one reads sellside research (especially that of Bank of America or Goldman), if one listens to comedy-finance fusion TV channels, if one reads newspapers, one can't help but be left with the impression that everyone and their grandmother is now dumping Treasurys and buying stocks. Why - because this is a key part of Bernanke's latest masterplan (which is the same as all his previous "masterplans", which have failed so far about 4 times previously) to force what little retail investing capital is left out there out of the safety of bonds (return of capital), and into stocks (return on capital). The catalyst? This time, for real, central planners will generate enough (controlled) inflation to create losses for anyone holding long duration paper (such as the Fed of course, whose DV01 is the biggest in the history of the world at over $2 billion, but we digress). So just to test whether or not this was indeed the case, we decided to go to the source data for what the smartest money of all is doing: the 20 or so (RIP 21st PD MF Global) primary dealers. After all, if everyone is dumping Treasurys over fears of an imminent surge in yields, and rotating into stocks, it would be them right? Well, the result is charted below: we present it without commentary.

With precious metal prices echoing 2011's year-end plunge, it is perhaps worthwhile considering the bigger picture. To wit, Central banks in emerging markets have increased their purchases of gold in recent years to bolster their rapidly growing currency reserves as the global financial crisis unfolds. Brazil, until recently, held only 0.5% of its foreign reserves in gold, but as Bloomberg reports,  the nation's official holdings of gold now stand at 2.16 million troy ounces - double the 1.08 million ounces it held in August. Brazil's foreign currency reserves grew USD807mm in November (during which the nation bought 472,000 ounces of gold) as "anecdotal reports suggest that demand from central banks will remain strong." As one analyst opined, "Central banks will remain a source of demand in the gold market," as is increasingy obvious in the chart below, "liquidity is paramount and gold will deliver."

It would appear that despite the market's apparently self-fulfilling 'proof' that we will not go over the cliff, that investors are far less exuberant than the indices would suggest. Today credit and interest rates markets are not following along and over the last two days, implied volatility (VIX) has been significantly bid as prudent investors appear comfortable (or stuck) holding their near-record net longs (as long as they are put-protected)... The volatility term-structure has flattened significantly (14 month flats) as short-term put buyers are very active (and not just in HLF).

Good news for all those who have nightmares about the prospect of peak oil: scientists have discovered an oil field which has a gargantuan 155 quintillion barrels of oil, or about 200 times more hydrocrabons than there is water on earth. There is however, a catch: the field is located some 1,300 light years away.... The good news, for all the Keynesians out there, is that the idea to build the Death Star, as proposed first on Zero Hedge, may finally get some life, especially if the Death Star is provided with some exploration and production capacity. And what self-respecting Keynesian wouldn't salivate at the prospect of injecting $852 quadrillion of debt growth into the economy at this time?

The equity market is seemingly paralyzed now in anticipation of the vote to take place later today. In the meantime, Speak Boehner is about to rally his team for the big game. With Harry Reid (and the Schumer sideshow) already out this morning, we suspect the hushed chants of "fight, fight, fight" will be heard in the background as the speaker takes the podium... ES 1433.50