Archive - Dec 2012

After the success of the 'scariest charts for equity bulls', the following 12 charts are the most important, in CitiFX's view, to establish a 'starting point' for views on markets as we head into 2013. From employment trends echoing the 1970s, one-last-low in Treasury yields and '90s analogs, to EURUSD and its mid-'80s mirror, and the ongoing trend higher in gold; there is something here to scare equity and bond bulls and bears alike.

For the third year in a row, hedge funds will underperform the market, this time by nearly 50%, having returned 5.15% through the end of November (with just equity funds +5.20% YTD), less than half what the MSCI World has returned. And while one can make the argument (not correctly) that a manager has to beat only a given benchmark, and not the overall market, the reality is that for virtually all LPs, seeing their money return well below the S&P not for one, not two, but for three years running, is about the last thing they need before they make a decision to fax in that redemption form.

A well-timed leak of an Obama-Boehner meeting this evening provided enough exuberance to allow algos to lift the markets (futures and ETFs first) from 'about to break the lows' to VWAP (to the tick!). S&P 500 futures picked off VWAP perfectly and slid back. The Dow and the S&P spent the afternoon stuck at unchanged on the week before the rally-monkey saved the day (as did Financials). Treasury yields continue to bleed higher (now up around 10bps on the week). Silver dislocated (worse) from its commodity peers who have recoupled +/-0.3% on the week (even as the USD is -0.6% on the week). Gold and silver (as we noted earlier) really fell out of love from the start of the day-session but silver was starting to recover into the close. AAPL was very close to its lowest close in 10 months (but again was rescued by some rampant white house leak about a totally fruitless rumor) though ended at a critical VWAP support level. By way of record-breakers - today marked the first time that we have seen stocks negative from the day before a QE announcement to the day after (no matter what Bob Pisani tells you). Equities tumbled into the close (after ringing the bell at VWAP) ending near the lows after-hours leaving financials and energy practically unchanged on the week. VIX jumped 0.5 vols to 16.4% and HYG had a very weak day on significant volume. But apart from that...

It may seem like a rhetorical question but Citi's credit stretgy team fears that the Fed may be pushing a bit too aggressively at this stage. The chart below shows monetary policy (defined as the funds rate and the Fed's balance sheet) vs. a "market health" index comprised of economic factors, systemic risk metrics, and valuation metrics. Historically the two have tracked well, but not recently. The health index is firming, but policy is getting easier, not tighter. Is the Fed out of its depth here, or do they know something we don't?

The following chart is perhaps the best glimpse of the excessively optimistic 'hope' relative to the rest of the world that US equity markets (and their extrapolators analysts) currently possess. Since the start of 2012, analysts, guided by both macro uncertainty and company expectations, have crushed 2013 EPS expectations across all global markets - well nearly all...

The institutional crazies, village idiots and knee-jerk opportunists who bought shares yesterday following a Fed announcement of yet more monetization seem not to have been paying attention, at least initially, to the nasty sell-off in T-Bonds.  Well before yesterday, any sentient being would have surmised that easing’s impact on the economy had reached the point of diminishing returns. With administered rates pegged at zero and mortgage loans near historical lows, how much more boost are we to expect from yet another gaseous effusion of bank-system credit? 

2012 has been a stellar year for oil and gas. From East Africa to North America, new technology, major new discoveries, an unparalleled appetite for exploration and a metamorphosing perception of risk have changed the playing field. We’re looking at potential rather than existing production, and here are our Top 5 picks for this year.

In a little under three minutes, CNBC's Rick Santelli clarifies (in a much-needed manner) that we do not live in a monarchy or dictatorship (hoping for benevolence) - no matter how many Democratic senators and congressmen believe the President was given a mandate leaving him "holding all the cards" - we live in a republic (where the sovereignty rests with all individuals) and removing 'debt ceiling' checks and balances (for example) is a ride down a slippery slope. The chagrined Chicagoan then goes on to discuss the fact that the Fed, having unloaded another package of potentially infinite unsterilized money-printing, was actively discussing its exit strategy. Put simply, Santelli notes, "mark my words" the market will decide that exit - and the Fed had better be ready when it comes.

From the open of the US equity market day-session, gold and silver have diverged aggressively. Gold is notably outperforming silver - in fact today is the biggest jump in the Gold/Silver ratio of the year. The Gold/Silver ratio has also retraced upwards to its 50DMA. It seems there is overall pressure on precious metals post-Bernanke but the relative preference is for Gold so far.

How much phantom housing collateral is still on the books? Nobody knows, and that in itself renders the housing/mortgage sector fragile.

From macro positives to macro negatives, from Democrats to Repblicans, and from idiosyncratic issues at AAPL to systemic global debt issues in the UK, today has been quite a ride already... -1.5% from post-FOMC highs, will we see QE5 next week?

The drainage of AAA quality collateral contonues as S&P cuts it outlook on the United Kingdom to negative...

• *BANK OF ENGLAND OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE: S&P
• *UNITED KINGDOM OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE BY S&P

more as we get it...

Here, for your comparative studies analytical viewing pleasure, is the current recession recovery in context. Across activity indicators, consumer behavior, labor market developments, and housing & construction, there is a little here for everyone. From vehicle sales to disposable income and from durable goods to industrial production, it seems grading this economy's performance is a matter of 'see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil'.

'Twas the seconds before the open, and all through the market, not a trader was stirring... well apart from Johnny 5 and his algo friends. From our friends at Nanex, in case you missed it, there were numerous algo-inspired flash-crashes this morning right before the open... HPQ (traded down to $3 from $14 in about 100ms), S (from $5.50 to $2.75 in 150ms), GS (from $117 to $94 in 45ms) and C (from $36.00 to $20.00 in 90ms) are among the NOT fat-finger moves we saw as the charts below show. Now move along and BTFD! Bernanke has told you so...