Archive - Dec 2012

Nancy spoke and markets followed her words down. Will Boehner be the bright shining light of compromise and positivity that so many are hoping for? (So far his record is 4 sell-offs and 1 rally) It appears going in to the speech that the market is anticipating less-than-compromise... We will see at 1115ET - live-stream below...

No one wants to mention that the Fed Chairman has changed the rules of the game in the middle of the game but there you are; a backsliding Federal Reserve Bank whose statements are only crafted for the moment and future moments may be brief; we just don’t know. Apparently we have transitioned to a “whatever is convenient” policy at the Fed and we all should bear that in mind when assessing probable actions. When money talks, nobody pays any attention to the grammar. The Treasury issues, the Fed prints money and buys, the cost of financing for the country is incredibly low and the yields for investors are paltry. In the risk markets there will now be a demand as instigated by the Fed, that overwhelms the supply of new issuance. Between the coupons paid and the maturities for 2013 the figure is about $1 trillion in excess demand more than estimated forthcoming supply. Given the 36% loss in wealth that took place in America during the 2008/2009 period the odds of an asset allocation shift out of bonds and into equities is de minimis in my opinion and so the “Great Compression” will continue.

Believe it or not the article itself is actually a lot worse than even the title implies.  These microphones are in many cases being coupled with cameras in order to gain an even greater level of surveillance.  All with grants from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).  Now honestly, does anyone really think this is for Al Qaeda? The 4th Amendment is dead.  I repeat, the terrorists won.

With gold and silver down this morning - following a mysterious vertical plunge last night (once again) - we thought ConvergEx's Nick Colas' timely discussion of gold was worthwhile. As he notes, Gold is the ultimate personality test for investors.  Some hate it, excoriating its adherents for their lack of faith in human ingenuity – gold has been valuable since before humans could write. And some swear by the yellow metal, in the belief that it is the last vestige of rationality in a world of financial assets manipulated by central banks and opaque trading venues.  What gets lost in the wash is that gold is a commodity and can be analyzed as such. On that basis, here is the 'Top 10' list of real-world fundamentals for gold.

We are sorry to interupt regularly scheduled Banzai7 Holiday Programming with this consummate farce...

Presented with no comment...

If the Mayans are correct, the world has just over a week before it goes poof. But, the hard-core chartists will say, is there any technical analysis suggestion they may be right? Let's take a look: the chart below shows all the 450 MunichRe-documented natural disasters that have taken place in the first half of the year, running at at annualized pace of a near record-setting 900 in 2012 alone. Is this enough to set off the most terminal selling event in the history of the world in 8 short days? You decide.

The economic data dump trifecta has been released, with updates on claims, retail sales and PPI. The end result was a nearly even beat/miss split.

Gold fell nearly 1% in illiquid markets in Asia overnight. Some traders may have decided to take profits on the short term long the FOMC announcement trade. Gold bullion prices had already ran up to $1,723 in the 2 weeks prior to the policy statement. Overnight, as prices fell below the 100-day moving average at $1,705, stop-loss selling was triggered which pushed prices lower quickly. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve took the bold, some would say reckless step, of linking its monetary policy to unemployment, creating concerns that the U.S. dollar will be debased even more in the coming months.  The US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at close to zero until unemployment falls below 6.5%. This is a historic and very radical change to monetary policy. It is the first time a large central bank has ever tied its interest rate policy directly to one facet of the economy – unemployment.

The Eurozone was once again engaged in burning the midnight oil, in yet another futile endeavor, this time setting the stage for a common bank supervisor in the face of the ECB, which is somehow supposed to "regulate" Europe's thousands of banks. That this was a total practical dud can be seen in the response of the EURUSD to the news. However, for those interested in the theoretical nuances, whose actual implementation has once again been kicked into the future, here is a quick and dirty primer from SocGen.

• Bernanke Wields New Tools to Reduce Unemployment Rate (BBG)
• Home Seizures Rise as Banks Adjust to Foreclosure Flow (BBG)
• EU Backs Release Of Greek Aid (WSJ)
• Democrats Confident They Have 'Cliff' Leverage (WSJ)
• Americans Back Obama Tax-Rate Increase Tied to Entitlement Cuts (BBG)
• Goldman flexes tentacles: Treasury open to Carney radicalism (FT)
• Launch Fuels Asia Security Concerns (WSJ)
• BOJ’s Unlimited Loan Program Seen Open to Use by Hedge Funds (BBG) - there are Japanese hedge funds?
• Abe Set to Face Manufacturing Gloom as Japan Contracts (BBG)
• US and UN condemn N Korea rocket launch (Guardian)
• Eurozone agrees common bank supervisor (FT)
• Berlusconi Adds to Italy Turmoil by Signaling He’d Step Aside (BBG)

Anyone hoping that if left on autopilot, pardon the pun, the frayed relations between Japan and China will fix themselves, is in for a disappointment. Because while the Japanese trade with China has imploded resulting in a collapse in Japanese exports, which in itself is crushing the local economy, the country may offset that economic decline with some "GDP growing" Keynesian voodoo if and when the provocations between the two countries escalate to the point of exchanged fire. Sure enough, Kyodo reports, that a Chinese government airplane entered Japanese airspace over the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea on Thursday in the first such airspace intrusion in Japan, prompting an immediate protest from the Japanese government. This is only the first time a Chinese airplane has entered the disputed airspace, the the third time in history: once before by a Soviet bomber in 1979 and a Taiwanese civilian aircraft in 1994. We now look forward to what China's response will be to this reaction which will certainly be seen as provocative in itself.

Why the lack of follow through? Because, according to preliminary desk talk, just as we predicted yesterday now that the Fed has reengaged the QEasing machine, the ECB will too have to intervene and ease on its own once again to push the EURUSD lower (as otherwise the internal devaluation for most European countries will be simply unbearable). Which means one thing: the time to drag the Spanish insolvency out of cryogenic sleep is coming, and if Rajoy still refuses to request a bailout, he will get some much needed assistance from Frankfurt to make up his mind, allowing the ECB to inject hundreds of billions into the market and in doing so to keep up with the Fed or else risk dropping too far behind in the global race to debase (with a footnote that in Europe, a drop in the currency always raises redenomination risk now and going forward).