Archive - Feb 2012

Just how much moolah can the state extract from its residents?

Looks like the SEC is not done with Goldman Sachs, already the subject of the largest civil fine levied by the SEC on a Wall Street firm, aside for that whole Robosettlement farce of course - which still is not available to the general public, and is back for more wristslaps. Per Reuters: "The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission notified Goldman Sachs Group Inc that it may file a civil case against the bank related to a $1.3 billion offering of subprime mortgage securities, Goldman said in a regulatory filing on Tuesday. Goldman received the "Wells notice" on Feb. 24 related to the bond deal, which was underwritten by Goldman in 2006, according to the 10-K filing. A Wells notice indicates that SEC staff plans to recommend that the Commission take legal action, and gives a recipient a chance to mount a defense. The bank said it will be making a submission to SEC staff "and intends to engage in a dialogue" with them to address their concerns." Our only question is how will Goldman pin this one entirely on Fabrice Tourre who may or may not be still in the employ of the 200 West headquartered firm.

...European banks are three times larger than the European sovereigns, the ECB is not the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, the leading economy in Europe, Germany, is 22% of the economy of America, that there are ever and always consequences for providing free money, that Europe is in a recession and it will be much deeper than thought by many in my view, that the demanded austerity measures are unquestionably worsening the recession and increasing unemployment, that nations become much more self-centered when their economies are contracting and that the more protracted all of this is; the more pronounced Newton’s reaction will be when the pendulum reverses course.

After 22 crosses yesterday, and 12 more today, the Dow managed to close above 13000. Transports were lower but less so on Oil's modest retracement (though the Brent-WTI spread remained around $15). While stocks closed modestly higher, volatility and correlation markets remained considerably higher than would be expected and along with quite considerable relative weakness in HYG (the high yield bond ETF) into the close as well as a clear up-in-quality rotation was evident as investment grade credit outperformed notably (not exactly a high-beta risk-on shift). Apple's meteoric rise helped drag Tech to first place overall today and also YTD followed closely (YTD) by financials both up around 14%. The last week or so of slow bleed higher in stocks has notably not been led by a short-squeeze in general - based on our index of most shorted names - but as is becoming more and more clear, divergences (and canaries) are appearing all over the place but we suspect can be traced back to Apple in many cases for its over-weighting impact. Treasuries slid lower (higher in yield) after Europe's close but remain better on the week and modestly flatter across the curve. Aside from a hiccup around the macro data this morning, EUR pushed higher all day against the USD shifting into the green by the US close as JPY stabilized. The USD weakness helped Copper and Gold leak higher but Silver was the massive winner, now up an impressive 4.3% since Friday and 30% YTD as WTI lost $107 and is now down over 3% on the week. The IG rotation coupled with vol decompression makes some (nervous) sense heading into the LTRO results but it seems the new safe-haven trade is Apple (whose option prices are now the most complacent since early 2009).

Last week we joked that for every downtick in the Obama popularity rating (due to record February gas prices) we would see at least 1 million barrels released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Sure enough, humor promptly becomes reality in United Banana States of Amerika:

• CHU SAYS U.S. WEIGHS USING STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE
• CHU SAYS U.S. IS `VERY CONCERNED' ABOUT EVENTS IN IRAN

So following the Transcanada fiasco, China is now doubly delighted that it will be able to buy even more cheap crude at America's expense. And yet one wonders why the SPR release: after all didn't we learn just today that Americans have not been more confident in years?

Since everyone is buying everything that is not nailed down, preferably with both hands, on massive margin if possible, and since the global reflation trade is on full bore following trillions in cheap money dumped by central banks to prevent another re-recession within the broader Depressionary downtrend (offset for the time being only courtesy of $7 trillion in consolidated central bank funny money), it only makes sense that following record January gasoline prices, that February would see an all time high in gas as well (a detailed breakdown can be found at the AAA's website). But fear not: as the laws of supply and demand have also been usurped by the Fed, as has common sense and basic economics, both these data points indicate that Q1 GDP will also come at an all time high, because the entire economy is now purely a reflection of Apple, which as noted previously is almost bigger than the entire retail sector by market cap, and today hit an all time high as well. In fact, we are now seeing a record in new all time highs across the spectrum (if not volume - shhhh about volume), it means that even as IBM just laid off another 1,000 North American employees, that the economy has never been better either.

For a while there it seemed that together with the LTRO and the Bernanke testimony, tomorrow's event trifecta would be joined by ISDA, which it had previously been rumored would make a decision on whether a credit event (read CDS trigger) had occurred in the context of Greece, and specifically following the ECB's stripping of its own bonds under some arcane exchange offer that only the ECB was privy to (this is not a determination whether a credit event has taken place related to the PSI - that will take place in late March). According to a just released PR, this won't happen, and instead ISDA will hold the meeting at 11 GMT on Thursday, March 1, the day after the LTRO, and announce everything was voluntary and by the books, just to avoid overloading the algos with bullish news at the same time (recall that the LTRO announcement will take place at 11:15 CET). In this way, the upside love will be spread over two days, which should hopefully result in another 30 ES point, as the headline scanning aglos no longer care what the headlines actually say, as long as there are headlines. Remember: when dealing with a bipolar Atari 2600 - quantity trumps quality any time, especially when coming off the biggest short-term central bank liquidity infusion in markets in history.

Since nobody else has any interest in downtown NY real estate, Goldman's Bill Dudley, currently incidentally in charge of the New York Fed, has decided to step up. "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed) today announced that it has acquired the building at 33 Maiden Lane for $207.5 million from Merit US Real Estate Fund III, L.P. and established a new, wholly owned limited liability company called Maiden & Nassau LLC to serve as owner of the building. The acquisition provides a cost-effective, long-term alternative to the current practice of leasing space in this and other buildings and allows for greater control over maintenance, operation and security of the building." As a reminder, the 9th floor of 33 Liberty is where the ever elusive, but always present Plunge Protection Team, pardon the "markets group" at the Federal Reserve is housed (more here). And although in recent days it is no secret that the bulk of Fed open market stock order are routed via that one certain HFT powerhouse out of Chicago, it is always a good idea to keep all the market manipulating facilities under one roof. And so, the Fed now will have full domain over everything that transpires under its own roof. And since the building likely has an extended basement, it provides Dudley, and his muppet Ben Bernanke with a convenient location where to store the soon to be confiscated 107 tons of Greek gold.

New standards that were set in place in 2006 as part of the Pensions Protection Act that change rules on pension fund liability calculations looks set to push The Pentagon to budget DefCon 1 as they note the costs are "way more than a book-keeping question". As Defense News reports, the rule, which takes effect this week, requires the US government to reimburse its contractors to a far greater degree for their employee pension costs. The unbudgeted line-item is estimated at billions of dollars but perhaps what is most concerning is DoD Comptroller Hale's comment that the cost to The Pentagon will depend on how the companies' pension funds fare in the stock market. If investments do well, costs will be lower, but if investments do poorly, pension funds become further underfunded and this will mean more costs to the Pentagon. Yet more vested interest in the economy stock market's levitation but given the 2006 law change, we tend to agree with the Center for Strategic and International Studies who note: "How can this have snuck up on us and caught us unaware? I didn't hear any alarm bells!" How indeed? Maybe Dow 13k is even more important than we know?

This is simply stunning: one company, which has two flagship products, has a bigger market cap than the entire Semiconductor space, and is just shy of the entire S&P Retail sector.

UPDATE: Added Nanex tick/quote charts "Thank you Mary for the wonderful stub quote ban..."

Presented with little comment except absolute incredulity that this is still occurring day-in and day-out with no real discussion beyond our friends at ITG...

*SHORT MUNI ETF PAUSED BY CIRCUIT BREAKER ON RISE OF UP TO 43%

SMB just jumped 43% in seconds on a string of 100/200 lot trades cascading up and then disappearing as circuit breakers halted it.

Much has been spun in recent weeks to indicate that as a result of collapsing trade, Iran's economy is in shambles and that the financial embargo hoisted upon the country by the insolvent, pardon, developed world is working. We had a totally different perspective on things "A Very Different Take On The "Iran Barters Gold For Food" Story" in which we essentially said that Iran, with the complicity of major trading partners like China, India and Russia is preparing to phase out the petrodollar: a move which would be impossible if key bilateral trade partners would not agree to it. Gradually it appears this is increasingly the case following a just released Reuters report that "Iran will take payment from its trading partners in gold instead of dollars, the Iranian state news agency IRNA quoted the central bank governor as saying on Tuesday."

Haven't learned a thing. 

It had been a quiet week in terms of geopolitical developments out of Middle East. Too quiet, well aside for that whole US escalating once again bit, and forcing Iran to eventually go over the edge. And while the role of the US and Iran has been extensively digested in the past few weeks, it is Iran that has remained in the shadows recently. No longer: as Al Arabiya reports, "Israeli officials say they won’t warn the U.S. if they decide to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, according to one U.S. intelligence official familiar with the discussions. The pronouncement, delivered in a series of private, top-level conversations, sets a tense tone ahead of meetings in the coming days at the White House and Capitol Hill. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak delivered the message to a series of top-level U.S. visitors to the country, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the White House national security adviser and the director of national intelligence, and top U.S. lawmakers, all trying to close the trust gap between Israel and the U.S. over how to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions, according to The Associated Press." Needless to say, the thoroughly effete and comical US foreign policy has no response to follow up queries: "The White House did not respond to requests for comment, and the Pentagon and Office of Director of National Intelligence declined to comment, as did the Israeli Embassy." And while there may be no comments here, look for more warnings about Israeli citizens being targetted by deranged Iranian around the world. Because when all else fails, fearmonger. Next up: the Status Quo will be telling the world how not attacking Iran would be tantamount to global destruction. The only trade off - will the spike in crude to $150 outdo the surge in Obama's popularity rating as the Nobel Peace Prize winner puts his name in the hat for a nomination in the Nobel War Prize category as well.