Archive - Mar 19, 2012

We (and Charles Biderman) have previously discussed the seasonal adjustments to NFP data, which while potentially credible in a releveraging context, is far less meaningful when used on apples to apples basis for months in which there is material wholesale deleveraging and record warm weather. Yet the rub lies precisely in the seasonal adjustment, which for January and February has "added" nearly 4 million jobs based on nothing but historical regression patterns, and the "beats" represented less than 5% of the total addition, implying even a modest miscalculcation would have had a huge impact on market, and political, interpretation of the data (as explained here). Today, it is the turn of Art Cashin, quoting Lakshman Achuthan, to provide his take on "unadjusted seasonal adjustments."

Much has been made of the positive impact that seasonal adjustments have made to the crop of supposedly better than expected macro prints that remain anecdotal evidence of why the S&P 500 is trading above 1400 again. Unfortunately the pleasant after-glow of a time-series-based adjustment that has become increasingly unstable and hard to justify post-crisis is starting to fade. Morgan Stanley's Business Condition Index dropped a very significant 5 points in March to 51%. Just as pointed out here (in Bernanke's scariest chart) the seasonal factors are almost entirely responsible as the trend of recent data is just not meeting expectations (both in analyst and market perceptions). Under the surface, things are a little gloomier also as their Hiring Plans Index dropped for the first time in six months and the business conditions expectations plummeted 11 points to 57% in March. Given this (leading) data, is it any wonder MS believes QE3 is inevitable and imminent? Though as we have noted again and again, until the market starts to get the sad joke that unless market momentum chasers start to defect from the current strategy, we suspect the impact of QE3 (if it comes) will be far more muted (in stocks) than the previous acts of exuberance by the Fed (and their buddies) - as implicitly the cost of the much-higher-than-normal strike price of Bernanke's put means ever-increasing QE needs to counter underlying weakness/perception.

Last week the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) affirmed their call made last fall that the U.S. economy would soon be in recession.   The ECRI’s main business focus is to try and predict the ups and downs of the business cycle, and they have had an outstanding record over the years. Right now the absolute level of the index may suggest economic weakness, but the second differential has suggested an improving stock market is also in the cards. 

UPDATE: As call begins AAPL is trading $592

After hitting $605 in pre-market, and halting at $599.32, we see AAPL reopened at $580 -down from Friday's close. Volume is relatively low, so we can assume AAPL is not buying its stock just yet. More importantly, could this be the start of rotation from hedge funds to dividend funds? Those who wish to join the Apple call can do so at (877) 616-0063, passcode: 592016. As a reminder, and as updated on the call, of APPL's $98 billion in cash, $64 billion is offshore - this means that $34 billion is available for immediate distribution and so to cover the $45 billion program, we assume some healthy repatriation will occur? In this context, Apple admits it has has spoken to Congress and the administration about tax issues relating to cash repatriation. One can imagine the plot layout.

And so Steve Jobs legacy is now gone as Apple goes Jamie Dimon. At least Apple was not part of the stress test. And as announced yesterday, we for one, can't wait to find out if it was JPM that advised Apple, to pull a JPM. Finally, we hope that AAPL's cash creation rate remains the same, as $45 billion in 3 years may put quite a large dent on the company's onshore cash, which according to reports is one-third of total.

For now, these are isolated incidents. But in Europe events of this kind have an unpleasant tendency of recurring just when it is darkest...

With a economic calendar devoid of virtually any events, the only two events worth of note this morning are the Greek CDS auction (where RBS appears to once again be confusing price and discount), and the Apple cash announcement due in just over an hour. The result is Apple stock which in the premarket session has traded as high as a new record high og $606, even as concerns emerge that the growth phase is over as the company transitions into a MSFT-type, post-Steve Jobs existence. Details of the 9 am call can be found here. Aside from that risk is broadly flat as hungover American traders take their seats.

• There is no Spanish siesta for the eurozone (FT)
• Greece over halfway to recovery, says PM (FT) - inspired comedy...
• Sarkozy Trims Gap With Rival, Polls Show (WSJ) - Diebold speaks again
• IMF’s Zhu Sees ‘Soft-Landing’ Even as Property Slides: Economy (Bloomberg)
• Obama Uses Lincoln to Needle Republicans Battling in Illinois (Bloomberg)
• Three shot dead outside Jewish school in France (Reuters)
• Osborne Seeks to End 50% Tax Spat With Pledge to Aid U.K. Poor (Bloomberg)
• Monti to Meet Labor Unions Amid Warning of Continued Euro Crisis (Bloomberg)

This week brings policy decisions in Taiwan and Thailand. The CBC decision will be very interesting to watch. The December statement at the time was surprisingly hawkish, only to be followed by a large upside surprise in inflation, and the TWD was subsequently allowed to appreciate. Given that the bank continues to view inflation as a major problem, according to quotes from Reuters, it will be very interesting to see how the bank weighs up concerns about hot money inflows vs the need to contain inflation risks. In particular, in the face of imported inflation pressures via higher commodity prices, many central banks may shift towards accepting the need for more currency strength. The week also brings some important central bank commentary. The RBA governor has an opportunity to opine on the recent slew of weak Australian data, as well as developments in the A$. There is quite a bit of commentary from Fed officials on the docket, including from Bernanke, which we will dissect for information on the further direction of policy. More dovish commentary than that of the FOMC last week, would arguably be a surprise and potentially dampen, if not reverse some of the moves of last week.

Deals from last week tell me that we are are again in a credit bubble.

The results from the Greek CDS auction are starting to come in (the full calendar can be found here). Moments ago ISDA, via Creditfixings.com released the initial results of the Auction, which indicate a preliminary market midpoint based on bids and offers of the defaulted bonds of 21.75, which is roughly in line with where bonds had been trading ahead of the PSI completion, if a little higher than the Cheapest to Deliver, indicating some modest upside to those who bought the CTDs in the final days. The Net Open Interest going into the bidding period which begins at 13:30 GMT and lasts for 30 minutes is a modest €291.6 million, with an offer-heavy side. Then final results will become pulbic in 4:30 hours, at 15:30 GMT.Once again, a full generic run down of the whole physical settlement process can be found here. Finally, what's with the RBS "Adjustment Amount": did the bank once again forget there is a difference between "discount" and "price"? Nothing less would surprise coming from the world's most incompetent bank.

Wherein Tom Day of Sungard drops out of hyperspace just long enough to write the following missive on the PRMIA DC web rant soapbox and get a few hours sleeep.  Ode to Frank Partnoy. --  Chris