Archive - Apr 6, 2012

Before even taking into account the aftermath of the “unexpected” NFP result, it has been amazing to see over these past few months the number of experts, especially those that reside solely within the “science” of economics, proclaiming a successful engineering of the long sought-after recovery.  That this has been the third such claim in as many years is lost in the noise of confusing “headwinds” that are somehow beyond the control of those that now control most everything within the financial arena.  Stock speculators are beneficial components to the healthy financial transmission mechanism into the real economy (even when all they are supposed to do is provide liquidity 20,000 times per second), but anybody that dares speculate in the far more vital energy sector (or any real commodity) is the pure incarnation of evil.  That these two apparently disconnected speculative classes are really one and the same shows just how obtuse (not always intentionally) economists and the pandering classes really are.

It's hard being a bear, except this week wasn't so bad.

The one sentence that may change everything: "...we have found some evidence that at the very long end of the yield curve, where Operation Twist is concentrated, it may be not just the stock of securities held by the Fed but also the ongoing flow of purchases that matters for yields..."

The saga continues as we head into 2012.  That saga is the demise of Ponzi finance

With expectations of a $12.0bn rise in Consumer Credit, yet another market 'economic' indicator flashes orange as the Seasonally Adjusted number comes in at $8.735bn - the largest miss from expectations in 6 months. Furthermore, using the Non-Seasonally Adjusted data, this is the largest sequential drop in 12 months (since the Feb 2011 plunge). While non-revolving debt managed to increase (though at a considerably lower pace) for the second month in a row the deleveraging that ended in Q4 has resumed following the end of the retail shopping season (as revolving credit contracted). Perhaps the same 'glitch' that destroyed Groupon, namely accounting for product returns, is about to sweep the entire retail industry?

An Oregon University professor has controversially compared skepticism of global warming to racism. Sociology and environmental studies professor Kari Norgaard wrote a paper criticising non-believers, suggesting that doubters have a ‘sickness’. The professor, who holds a B.S. in biology and a master’s and PhD in sociology, argued that ‘cultural resistance’ to accepting humans as being responsible for climate change ‘must be recognised and treated’ as an aberrant sociological behaviour.

On a day when the sad reality of our (AAPL-free) centrally-planned economy came a little unhinged, it is perhaps useful to reflect on just how different our 'capitalism' in the US now is from other 'capitalist' societies and the one we had in the 1900s. Robert Murphy (of The Politically Incorrect Guide To Capitalism book fame) explains how everyone has an agenda - yet everyone agrees that they despise capitalism. Capitalism is the system in which people are 'free to choose' and this is compared to socialist economies (where prices are set by the Fed state and assets can be confiscated for the benefit of the people). The fear of capitalism's citizenry running riot with unregulated actions leaves critics focused on a belief that regulators and bureaucrats know better than private citizens how to make their own decisions. This brief discussion ends with a sprinkling of Ayn Rand, Obama, Geithner, Barney Frank, and Harry Reid and their efforts to evade Capitalism's features, misrepresent its nature, and destroy its last remnants.

Recovery? What Recovery? 4 years after central banks have progressively injected over $7 trillion in liquidity into the global markets (and thus, by Fed logic, the economy), and who knows how many trillion in fiscal aid has been misallocated, to halt the Second Great Depression which officially started in December 2007, the US "recovery" is the weakest in modern US history! How many more trillions will have to be printed (and monetized) before the central planners realize that fighting mean reversion by using debt to defeat recore debt, just doesnt't work? Our guess - lots.

Just because the imminent launch of a North Korean rocket along a trajectory which will likely force Japan to strike it down, something which Pyongyang said would be equivalent to an act of war, was not enough, it now appears that South Korea has commenced the hunt for Red Pyongyang or four, as it is now "searching for four North Korean submarines that disappeared after leaving their bases on the tense peninsula." ABC News reports that "A military source quoted in a South Korean newspaper says up to four North Korean submarines slipped out of port in recent days and have so far avoided detection. The source was also quoted as saying that Pyongyang has stepped up submarine infiltration drills as the weather has warmed." As a result, "Seoul is now on alert for a possible strike against a South Korean naval ship." This won't be the first time a North Korean sub is implicated in potential wrongdoing: "The South accuses the North of using a midget submarine to sink the corvette the Cheonan two years ago, which left 46 South Korean sailors dead."

With the world focusing on the latest disinformation from the BLS, one would be forgiven to miss the Bank of Italy's monthly balance sheet aggregates data. A quick perusal thereof reveals that in March, Italian banks saw their ECB support surge from €195 billion to €270 billion, the highest ever, 39% more than in February, and 776% more than greater than a year earlier, and now merely the latest parabolic curve to love and hold dear. Indicatively, on the chart below we have also added Spanish bank borrowings from the ECB (still pending a March update), which in February were also at an all time high of €152 billion. So aside from this last recourse lifeline from the ECB which is now openly keeping Europe's banks afloat, "the crisis is nearly over" to quote Mario Monti.

While the idea of a futuristic tale of the resurgence of Greece and how Germany shot itself in the foot could well be the work of the horror-writer, HSBC's Chief Economist Stephen King opines on what could well be with a moral for those who want Athens out of the Euro. "The idea that Greece can leave and that the rest of the eurozone will then live happily ever after – a view that is quickly becoming the conventional wisdom – is surely wrong. Departure might eventually be an answer to Greece's difficulties but it only asks questions of everybody else." And the fantastic journey King lays out is rooted in a sad reality that he sums up thusly: "Germany's gamble had failed. In the attempt to punish Greece, it had ended up with an impossible choice: creating a fiscal union or huge currency upheaval. Berlin had taken aim at Greece but shot itself in the foot."

This is the latest tally: since the start of the Second Great Depression, the US has lost a total of 5.2 million nonfarm payroll jobs, beginning with 138 million jobs in December 2007, and printing at 132.8 million as of 90 minutes ago. So far so good. The problem, however is that the denominator in the equation is not fixed, and as everyone knows the US labor force, despite the ridiculous BLS data fudging, is growing in line with population, albeit at a slower pace. According to all non-partisan budget forecasters, each month the labor force should be adding 90,000 people. Which in turn means that since December 2007, the labor force has really grown by 4.6 million. Adding these two together leads to a 10 million job deficit. So what has to happen for these 10 million to get promptly put back into jobs, and for America to get back to the ~5% unemployment rate it boasted just as the credit bubble peaked? Nothing too crazy: the country just has to create 262,000 jobs every month for the remainder of Obama's first, and now, by the looks of it, second term too. We are quite confident he can handle it.

Deconstructing Corzine's lawyered up rat speak.

UPDATE: Treasuries still bid with 10Y -12bps ay 2.06%, 7Y -12bps at 1.44% and 5Y comfortably back under 1% -9bps.

Risk-Off. Treasury yields dropped around 12bps across the curve from pre-NFP as the 10Y yield drops the most in 5 months. Equity futures are down the most in a month (20pts off pre-NFP levels) and testing lows as they catch up to credit weakness. IG credit is testing 100bps for the first time in over 2 months and HY credit is back over 600bps - its widest in 3 months. Gold has popped $10 or so to over $1640 and it appears we have a new FX regime with USD weakness implying market weakness as JPY strength (on repatriation and carry unwinds back to one-month highs) is the most impressive (and AUD weakness for same reason). EURUSD is leaking higher as is swissy, as the EUR-USD swap spread model converges on EURUSD's fair-value. Of course markets are thin, but ES (the S&P 500 e-mini futures) is trading relatively actively and testing lows once again as they close - not pretty at all as ES ends the week with the heaviest 3-day loss in four months (perhaps notably ending at 2011's May high print level).

This is easily the meatiest, most offensive, most controversial and probably the most hardhitting post of the year. Here's proof that Goldman STUFFED ITS MUPPET clients!!! 20 pgs of research warning non-muppet clients to back off, proof of the Muppet biz model...