Archive - May 6, 2012
This Time is Different....This is Not What You Think
Submitted by thetechnicaltake on 05/06/2012 23:48 -0500But I would contend that you need to be careful for what you wish for as something has happened to the relationship between bonds and stocks over the past 2 years.
Investor Sentiment: "Ooops!! I Fell for it Again"
Submitted by thetechnicaltake on 05/06/2012 23:16 -0500The market appears to be topping out after we were all told that this is one of those can't miss you better jump on board now the train is leaving the station moments that you will certainly regret.
Treasuries Plummet To 3 Month Low Yields As Equities Recouple
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2012 21:40 -0500
US Treasuries opened just over an hour ago and are now trading considerably lower in yield. 10Y yields are under 1.84%, their lowest since February 3rd and within a few bps of ther 1.7959% yield lows of mid-December which would all but guarantee a return to the September 2012 2011 low yields. More critically for all those QE-hopers, the massive divergence which we have been vociferously arguing as unsustainable between 10Y yields and the S&P 500 has how collapsed and converged perfectly. From last Tuesday's Bernanke press-conference when he hinted (albeit hedged with chatter of recklessness) that QE was still on the table (which we argued meant that - should the entire world suddenly go pear-shaped, we will step in but until then we are on hold), US equities decided that they should forget fundamentals once again and simply bid the market on nominal price improvement based on fiat-debasement - which enabled a 50 point divergence from reality- which has now completely converged and in fact S&P futures are now 10-15points below the pre-Bernanke-week-hope lows.
On the Odds of an Ease
Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 05/06/2012 19:42 -0500We will hear that QE3 is a sure thing tomorrow. I disagree.
Complete European Event Calendar: May, June Edition
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2012 19:12 -0500Two big events down, many, many others more left to go. Below is a full European event calendar for the rest of May and June. Just like in 2011, Europe got unhinged around this time and things peaked by November when only a coordinated global intervention saved the world courtesy of $1.3 trillion from the ECB, expanded FX swaps from the Fed and a PBOC rate cut. Only unlike in 2011, with Silvio and Sarko both now gone, the roster of political scapegoats is getting very, very thin. Whose head wil the vigilantes demand next? We will find out over the summer and fall, which promise to be even more exciting than last year.
Is Gold Hinting At Imminent Coordinated Global Intervention?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2012 18:13 -0500
While it is still early in the overnight session, initial indications are for a full spectrum Risk Off market. In fact, S&P 500 futures (ES) have not fallen this fast over a two- or three-day period since the third week of November last year. As many may remember - a few days of drops like this took ES from 1260 to 1136 in a week but more importantly was followed very quickly by a massive and coordinated Central Bank intervention that ripped ES over 6% higher in an overnight session - sparking the entire rally of the last six months as it appeared the central bank put strike had been dragged higher. Admittedly the two-day fall so far (while the largest in almost six months) is still small in context, it would appear the world is waking up to the true event risks of a debt-saturated fiat system going through its death throes. Back of the envelope would suggest we need to drop to 1285 or so on the S&P before the same kind of hit-the-big-red-central-bank-panic-button kind of move comes into play. Sure enough, Gold is only very modestly lower (-$3 at $1640) so far in the face of a rip higher in USD and broad liquidation everywhere else - perhaps the patience of sound money will be paid off once again.
Real Time Greek Government Tracker; Goldman's Bearish Take
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2012 17:38 -0500
While clearly dramatic, the outcome of the French presidential election was very much anticipated and at this point the only real question is how many promises will Hollande reneg on before the week is over: if Berlusconi is any indication, all it will take is for OAT yields to spike by 20-30% and all shall be well for the status quo. Greece, on the other hand, where as we said the people have lost everything so are free to do anything, just did more or less that, and have shocked Europe with an outcome which as we warned could result in the lack of a pro-bailout coalition government, which means no IMF aid, which means "no bailout for the Greek people", which means no bailout for European banks under the guise of a Greek DIP loan. And with 63% of precincts reporting, ND + Pasok have 153 as of this moment which is enough for a majority although paradoxically the anti-bailout parties will have among them nearly 60% of the finaly vote which means they could form an anti-bailout coalition if they buried their diferences. Finally, there is still time, so for all those curious if the two Greek parties will be able to form an all important coalition government, can keep track of the vote count in real time at the link below.
US Equities Plunge To 2-Month Lows
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2012 17:15 -0500
UPDATE: EURUSD just broke down through 1.30 to 3-month lows and WTI opened with a $95 handle - lowest of the year and < 200DMA.
S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) just opened down over 11pts from Friday's close and have traded below the 4/10 and 4/23 lows to trade back to their lowest since 3/8 taking out the 1350 stops. The EUR is at its lowest against the GBP since Nov 2008, closing in in the first sub-1.30 print since 4/16 with a little more pain taking us to 4-month lows in EURUSD (now within 20pips of 4-month lows). Gold and Silver (spot) are modestly lower relative to the 0.4% raise in the USD. Treasuries are not open yet but broad risk assets imply a considerably lower print for ES in the mid-1320s at current prices. WTI has opened with a $95 handle crossing its 200DMA to its lowest since 12/20.
The Banks' Nightmare Is Coming True: Greek Left Calls For Anti-Bailout Coalition
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2012 15:25 -0500The only saving grace of the earlier horrendous Greek parliamentary vote was that, based on very preliminary results New Democracy and Pasok would be able to form a coalition government with precisely 151 seats needed in parliament to give them status quo powers. However, according to a more recent re-rack of the votes (New Democracy 18.9%, 108 seats, Pasok 13.4%, 41 seats, Syrizia: 16.6%, 51 seats, and all others), this assumption is now in jeopardy as the two pro-bailout parties will have just 149 seats in the new parliament, or not even a full majority. Why is this problematic? Because virtually every other party in the new parliament, and there may be up to 10 there including the New Dawn, have voiced their opposition to the bailout of Greece, which as everyone knows is merely a bailout of Europe's insolvent banks using Greek taxpayer funds as a conduit. And, adding insult to injury, Reuters now reports that "Greek leftist leader calls for anti-bailout coalition." It appears that finally, after many years of delays, the anti "bailout" genie is finally out of bottle...
"The Dictator" Congratulates Francois Hollandaise On His Victory
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2012 15:08 -0500
When the situation gets so ridiculous not even TheOnion is fit to describe it, in walks Sasha Baron Cohen and puts everything back into perspective.
SARK BALLS: A SHoRT TiME AGo In A PONZI SCHeMe FaRCe FaRCe AWaY...
Submitted by williambanzai7 on 05/06/2012 13:52 -0500I bet she gives great helmet --Dark Helmet, Space Balls
First EURUSD Print: 1.3045
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2012 13:46 -0500Something tells us the BIS' Mikaël Charozé is not going to be too happy defending that all important 1.3000 border in the EURUSD tonight. First prints out of the gate: a timid 35 pip drop to 1.3045.
Meet President Hollande
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2012 13:30 -0500
Courtesy of Bloomberg, below is a compilation of the key dates to know for the first French socialist president since Francois Mitterand.
Sarkophagus: Hollande Wins French Presidency
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2012 13:04 -0500
And so one more tumbles to the popular wave of anger and discontent.
Francois Hollande wins 51.9% of the vote according to exit polls
The 57-year-old Hollande got about 52 percent against about 48 percent for Sarkozy, according to estimates by pollsters CSA and Harris Interactive
Nicholas Sarzkoy concedes defeat in presidential election to Francois Hollande







