Archive - Jun 6, 2012

Reflecting on yesterday's monetary-policy-hope-driven rally, UBS' Art Cashin prefers to focus on Richard Fisher's very frank (and succinct) speech on the limits of monetary policy and the importance of fiscal policy.  Urging everyone to read it, and send it to your Congressman and Senators, he reminds us that Fisher is the only Fed policymaker to have been a banker and a money manager, and in the words of Richard Fisher, he worries that: "there is a growing sense that we are unwittingly, or worse, deliberately, monetizing the wayward ways of Congress."

Market Turbulence As Global Economies Falter: The European debt-crisis, the derailing of Chinese economic growth and an underemployed United States all point toward a “global crunch”. 

From Whitney Tilson's just released letter: "It was an ugly month – our second-worst ever – but for perspective, our fund gave back slightly more than the 12.3% gain of the previous two months. We’re still having a decent year, with a healthy, market-beating gain. In fact, this is the fourth-best start to a year in our fund’s 14-year history." Is that so? May one inquire, in the aftermath of the JPM CIO scandal, does T2 mark the bulk of their positions, which as Zero Hedge disclosed recently are call options, based on market, or based on magical bid/asks, to be made up on the go (as in JPM'scase)? That's right - a hedge fund which "invests" in theta. Is there any wonder why the "hedge fund" with about $200 million in actual stock-based AUM (the balance being calls and warrants), may be the first one with a negative Sharpe ratio? For a visual summary of why LPs (aside from friends and family of course) in T2 are singlehandedly propping up the bottom line of Dramamine, see the chart below.

The headlines are rolling in. From Bloomberg:

• ECB SEES 2012 INFLATION AT 2.3% TO 2.5% VS PREV 2.1% TO 2.7%. - so... counterdisinflation

That's the kicker: ECB sees inflation. Deus Ex Off - forget more easing at this point. Everything else is just filler.

Minutes ago, the ECB already delivered a major disappointment to those most desperate for a Deus Ex intervention: those praying for an ECB rate cut were EastLB (0.5%), and BNP, Credit Agricole, Margin Stanley and Nordbank, all of whom were hoping for a 25 bp cut. Incidentally, all banks that are, shall we say it, liquidity challenged. They did not get their prayers answered. Now, the prayer goes that Draghi will magically hint at the NEW LTRO (not LTRO 3, thank you Apple). In reality he will most likely continue dragging the old party line - economy is weak, we hope governments fix it, but ECB stands ready, etc, hardly the stuff of "Bath Salt your Face Off" rally legends. Watch the whole thing live at the link below.

Imagine if you will a very large and diverse restaurant. It is not the Restaurant at the End of the Universe of Douglas Adam’s fame but the biggest one on this world and it is known as “Investeros.” Here there is a group of people that have been dining together for the past thirteen years. For most of the time the food was good, the service polite and paying the bill was never an issue. Then Don Grekko got into trouble and then Don Paddy and also Don Portugesse. They still went to lunch, of course, everyone being good friends but the other diners had to pick up their bill and this was getting tiresome. There was huffing and puffing and each of them said, in turn, that it was not their fault. There was the usual polite finger pointing and these three gentleman ate, but what they could order was severely curtailed because of the prices. This caused some issues but everyone still dined and the world went on albeit not quite as pleasantly as before.... In a final act, of what they thought was brilliance, the dining group turned to the owners of the restaurant and asked for credit. They got this for a time but the bill for present and past meals kept increasing as well as the interest on what was owed. “You know us, we have always paid, we will always pay” is what was told to the owners of “Investeros” but the bill was becoming so large that many of the restaurant’s owners said that the days of the “free lunch” was over.  Now the group is once again at the table ordering lunch and desert has come and gone and everyone is sitting there looking at everyone else. No one is volunteering to pay the bill; no one knows who will pay the bill. The restaurant is about to close for the siesta and the waiters are getting impatient along with the management.

As largely expected, except for some die hard contrarians, and as we predicted, the ECB keeps rates unchanged, and checks to the Fed. Now everyone turns attention to 8:30 am press conference where those who provide investment advice based on coin flips what central bankers do, will pray to their assorted gods that Draghi will fix everything. Or at least something.

10 Minutes to go until the ECB.... very likely disappoints again. As it usually does. There is simply too much pent up hope in what Mario Draghi will say or do, as always happens at critical junctions for the insolvent continent. Recall the same happened in November, only for the world to have to bail out Europe following a non-announcement by the ECB as Europe was imploding. Finally, why should the ECB do anything, when the public debate has already started about the US bailing out Europe: why should Draghi further infurtiate Germany's taxpayers when it has a free put option on Bernanke doing what he does best in two weeks. But for now: RISK ON. For at least a few more minutes.

• Wisconsin's Walker makes history surviving recall election (Reuters)
• China Labor Shortages in Guangdong Show Stimulus Limits (Bloomberg)
• Oil rises toward $100 ahead of ECB (Reuters)
• China's Property Controls to Stay (China Daily)
• Spain Makes Explicit Plea for Bank Aid (FT)
• Fed Considers More Action Amid New Recovery Doubts (WSJ)
• Noda Sales-Tax Push Confronts Rising Japan Majority Opposition (Bloomberg)
• National Interests Threaten EU Bank Reforms (FT)

I believe this is Germany’s final push for EU control. If this fails and Germany ceases to offer additional bailout funds in some form then the EU will collapse (as noted earlier, the ECB, IMF, and US Fed cannot prop the EU up nor will the ESM mega bailout fund work). Spain’s literally on the verge of seeing a bank holiday. Germany is the only one who might have the funds to prop it up. And Germany wants gold.

When in doubt: crush your "common" currency by keeping your "partners" on the verge of bankruptcy, and export, export, export. After contracting by 0.3% in Q4 for both the Euroarea (of 17 countries) and the EU27, just released data from Eurostat indicated that in Q1, GDP for both "areas", but notably the Eurozone, was flat quarter over quarter courtesy of... strong exports. Which in turns shows just why various countries in the Eurozone (coughgermanycough), namely those who actually are relevant in the GDP calculation, seek to benefit greatly from the perception that Europe is on the brink, and the EUR is sliding as a result, further promoting exports, and thus, growth. As a result, because technically it avoided two consecutive quarters of contraction, the Eurozone has avoided the dreaded recession. For now. Expect further speculation that Europe is imploding, continuing to benefit solely the one export powerhouse of Europe: Germany.