Archive - Jun 2012

Between discussions of gold-backed debt issuance in Europe (from Rick Santelli) and why Europe's problem is not merely a banking crisis but far worse (with the need for large-scale default and deleveraging as opposed to constant political intervention to makes things worse - quoting our earlier note on Italy's insanity), Michael Pento asks, rhetorically we pre-supposed: "What is wrong with letting the free markets work here? Let's let what is going to happen, happen!" But Bill Griffeth provides the truth-quote-of-the-day (in a stunning kimono-opening for the CNBC-watching public at large) when he opines on Pento's question that "There is not a single politician who hopes to let the free markets work and be reelected."

Indeed - as Santelli adds: "You Nailed It!"

Reasonable volume but decidedly low average trade size suggests today creep higher (and late-day acceleration) to Friday's closing level for stocks and bonds was more dead-cat-bounce (DCB) than BTFD. Treasuries sold off notably but in context merely retraced 50% of the high yield to low yield range from yesterday. S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) also retraced perfectly 50% of the high to low swing of yesterday and closed almost to the tick at Friday's closing price. The USD drifted very gently lower today (-0.08% from Friday) on Cable strength (GBP) and the ubiquitous post European-close rally in EURUSD. The late-day AUD strength was probably the most notable (just what ES needed to get the correlation-driven asset up to unch for the week). Oil bounced ebulliently off its disaster lows of yesterday with WTI now only -0.8% from Friday as Gold, Silver, and Copper are up around 1.5% on the week (though gold lagged a little today). High beta equity outperformed - Materials, Industrials, and Financials up 1.5-1.8% as the major financials managed decent bounces - though all remain weaker than yesterday's open. Notably JPM's stock popped 3% while its CDS drifted wider still ahead of Dimon's denouement tomorrow. Equities outperformed credit today once again but IG and HY did rally/squeeze into the close - though remain cheap/wide to stock's exuberance. VIX stumbled about 1.5 vols but remains above 22% as cross-asset-class correlations fell notably into the European close but picked up in the afternoon as risk-assets in general led stocks higher - rather surprisingly syncing to fair-value at the close.

An interesting tidbit from Pershing Square's just released quarterly letter: "When we first announced our stake in JCP, the stock price increased to the low $30s per share. Shortly after announcing our stake, we were approached by one of the most well-respected private equity funds in the world who expressed an interest in acquiring the company at a substantial premium. While we welcomed this fund as an owner of the stock, we had no interest in selling the company for a quick premium because we believe in the long-term value creation opportunity."

At this point there is no longer a point in commenting the daily insanity coming out of Europe. Central planning everywhere, in everything and for everyone.

• FRANCE TO LIMIT EXECUTIVE PAY TO 20 TIMES LOWEST SALARY: FIGARO
• FRANCE TO CURB PAY OF HEADS OF STATE-OWNED COS., FIGARO REPORTS
• ECONOMY MINISTRY TO ANNOUNCE DECISION TOMORROW, FIGARO SAYS

Who will be affected:

• FRENCH PAY CURB AT COS. WITH GOVT MAJORITY STAKE, FIGARO SAYS

So... all French banks soon to quite soon?

Spain’s Bailout is one big lie. I know, I know... Spain is “saved” thanks to a €100 billion bailout. But no one is asking just where this money will come from?

In case of 'Helicopter Ben' failure, we are again reminded that there is a Plan Z. Recall that none other than the Chairman said in 2002: "Keynes ... once semi-seriously proposed, as an anti-deflationary measure, that the government fill bottles with currency and bury them in mine shafts to be dug up by the public." Below, courtesy of William Banzai is an artist's impression of what said scavenger hunt would look like. Will there be an 'app' for that? Maybe AAPL's new 3D Maps will enable the national treasure hunt? Long Shovels.

If Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain can do it, why not everyone? Heck, why pay for anything, instead of just ramping up debts, until the consolidated debt load is so high the Fed has no choice but to bail everyone out? Of course, this is purely a thought experiment (for now... there are still 5 months in the presidential race). Still, we were curious to see if there is validation of this meme "out there" - and to do this we of course went straight to the source - Google's most recent addition in tracking public queries, Insights for Search, and looked up the term "bailout." We were not at all surprised to find the English-speaking world's curiosity in this particular synonym for a 'free lunch' (with other people's money) has exploded in the last few weeks.

The upcoming bailout in Cyprus has warts, and spies.

The situation in Europe goes from bad to worse. Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg is back to his bearish roots as he remind us that 'throwing more debt after bad debts ends up meaning more debt'. As he notes, the definition of insanity is (via Bloomberg TV):

When you realize that of the potential $100 billion to spend, 22% of that has to be provided by Italy and their lending to Spain is at 3% but Italy has to borrow at 6%. They have to lend to Spain $22bn at 3% - it is just madness. Everybody is getting worried again. The solution that they seem to have come up with seems to be worse than the problem in the first place.

The First BRIC to be Downgraded to Junk?

One month ago we were pleasantly surprised to note that following 42 straight months of budget deficits, among them record ones, such as the ($231.7) billion recorded in February, the US finally managed to record its first budget surplus since September 2008. The number was a modest but positive $58 billion, although there was once again more than meets the eye. On May 7 we said that "without various temporal adjustments, the April surplus of $58 billion would have been completely netted out by the cumulative $57 billion in deficit time shifts." More importantly, we said, "In other words, enjoy the surplus while you can: for another 30 or so days." Sure enough, 30 days later, the number is out, and it is back to normality: the US recorded a deficit of $125 billion in May, on outlays of $305 billion and revenues of $181 billion. And so the "surplus" miracle is over.

Jose Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, thinks Europe needs a unified banking system.

But how can financing be a solution for a Zone with a fatal fundamental flaw? Banking cannot save the euro-Zone. This proposal is only the distraction du jour.

Europe continues be unable and unwilling to look at the core problem in the Zone which has morphed into huge competitiveness differences that are creating havoc.

The easiest fix for this is a break up. For the Zone to survive this will require a lot of cooperation and frankly it does not seem close to doing it.

While the US magnanimously decided to exempt several nations from U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil imports, it appears the Chinese government has indicated it has no plans to change its position on oil purchases from Iran. As Voice of America reports, China's FinMin spokesman Liu Weimin said the purchases are necessary, because of its economic development, describing their 'purchase channels' as 'completely legal' and 'normal, open, and transparent'. China is the world's largest buyer of Iranian oil and is the last remaining major importer exposed to possible penalties when the U.S. sanctions are imposed, likely later this month. When asked if China and the United States are still in discussion about the sanctions, the spokesman would only say that Beijing has clearly informed Washington of its position. China's purchases of oil from Iran declined earlier this year, but analysts say the cutback was the result of a price dispute. Purchases went back up in April and have continued. Raise to you Hillary.

In the long run, all the hullabaloo about the various global banking crises is just hot air. The old establishment banks — the ones that have been bailed out this week in Spain, and in 2008 in America — are unnecessary middlemen. This is because of the ludicrous spreads from which they profit. They borrow from central banks and from depositors at absurdly low rates of interest (that’s what ZIRP is all about) and lend at vastly higher rates. What useful function does it serve? At one time, banks generated value by being wise lenders, lending to businesses that they determined would add value. Today they prefer gamble up even bigger profits in the zero-sum derivatives casino and shadow banking whorehouse, requiring frequent bailouts when such schemes go awry. They are dinosaurs that offer no real value to their shareholders, their customers, or to society.