Archive - Jun 2012

Minutes ago, the ECB already delivered a major disappointment to those most desperate for a Deus Ex intervention: those praying for an ECB rate cut were EastLB (0.5%), and BNP, Credit Agricole, Margin Stanley and Nordbank, all of whom were hoping for a 25 bp cut. Incidentally, all banks that are, shall we say it, liquidity challenged. They did not get their prayers answered. Now, the prayer goes that Draghi will magically hint at the NEW LTRO (not LTRO 3, thank you Apple). In reality he will most likely continue dragging the old party line - economy is weak, we hope governments fix it, but ECB stands ready, etc, hardly the stuff of "Bath Salt your Face Off" rally legends. Watch the whole thing live at the link below.

Imagine if you will a very large and diverse restaurant. It is not the Restaurant at the End of the Universe of Douglas Adam’s fame but the biggest one on this world and it is known as “Investeros.” Here there is a group of people that have been dining together for the past thirteen years. For most of the time the food was good, the service polite and paying the bill was never an issue. Then Don Grekko got into trouble and then Don Paddy and also Don Portugesse. They still went to lunch, of course, everyone being good friends but the other diners had to pick up their bill and this was getting tiresome. There was huffing and puffing and each of them said, in turn, that it was not their fault. There was the usual polite finger pointing and these three gentleman ate, but what they could order was severely curtailed because of the prices. This caused some issues but everyone still dined and the world went on albeit not quite as pleasantly as before.... In a final act, of what they thought was brilliance, the dining group turned to the owners of the restaurant and asked for credit. They got this for a time but the bill for present and past meals kept increasing as well as the interest on what was owed. “You know us, we have always paid, we will always pay” is what was told to the owners of “Investeros” but the bill was becoming so large that many of the restaurant’s owners said that the days of the “free lunch” was over.  Now the group is once again at the table ordering lunch and desert has come and gone and everyone is sitting there looking at everyone else. No one is volunteering to pay the bill; no one knows who will pay the bill. The restaurant is about to close for the siesta and the waiters are getting impatient along with the management.

As largely expected, except for some die hard contrarians, and as we predicted, the ECB keeps rates unchanged, and checks to the Fed. Now everyone turns attention to 8:30 am press conference where those who provide investment advice based on coin flips what central bankers do, will pray to their assorted gods that Draghi will fix everything. Or at least something.

10 Minutes to go until the ECB.... very likely disappoints again. As it usually does. There is simply too much pent up hope in what Mario Draghi will say or do, as always happens at critical junctions for the insolvent continent. Recall the same happened in November, only for the world to have to bail out Europe following a non-announcement by the ECB as Europe was imploding. Finally, why should the ECB do anything, when the public debate has already started about the US bailing out Europe: why should Draghi further infurtiate Germany's taxpayers when it has a free put option on Bernanke doing what he does best in two weeks. But for now: RISK ON. For at least a few more minutes.

• Wisconsin's Walker makes history surviving recall election (Reuters)
• China Labor Shortages in Guangdong Show Stimulus Limits (Bloomberg)
• Oil rises toward $100 ahead of ECB (Reuters)
• China's Property Controls to Stay (China Daily)
• Spain Makes Explicit Plea for Bank Aid (FT)
• Fed Considers More Action Amid New Recovery Doubts (WSJ)
• Noda Sales-Tax Push Confronts Rising Japan Majority Opposition (Bloomberg)
• National Interests Threaten EU Bank Reforms (FT)

I believe this is Germany’s final push for EU control. If this fails and Germany ceases to offer additional bailout funds in some form then the EU will collapse (as noted earlier, the ECB, IMF, and US Fed cannot prop the EU up nor will the ESM mega bailout fund work). Spain’s literally on the verge of seeing a bank holiday. Germany is the only one who might have the funds to prop it up. And Germany wants gold.

When in doubt: crush your "common" currency by keeping your "partners" on the verge of bankruptcy, and export, export, export. After contracting by 0.3% in Q4 for both the Euroarea (of 17 countries) and the EU27, just released data from Eurostat indicated that in Q1, GDP for both "areas", but notably the Eurozone, was flat quarter over quarter courtesy of... strong exports. Which in turns shows just why various countries in the Eurozone (coughgermanycough), namely those who actually are relevant in the GDP calculation, seek to benefit greatly from the perception that Europe is on the brink, and the EUR is sliding as a result, further promoting exports, and thus, growth. As a result, because technically it avoided two consecutive quarters of contraction, the Eurozone has avoided the dreaded recession. For now. Expect further speculation that Europe is imploding, continuing to benefit solely the one export powerhouse of Europe: Germany.

The ascendency of behavioral economics over its “Classical” cousin is one of the more notable effects of the market turmoil of the last five years.  Simple constructs like “Every marginal dollar has utility” have given way to more nuanced explanations that incorporate how human beings really make decisions about the tradeoffs between money and deeply held emotions and beliefs. But even with this realization, academia still seems to have a choke hold on the studies that expand our knowledge of this new discipline.  Nic Colas, of ConvergEx, adds to the discipline’s canon with some examples of common street scams around the world. The comparisons he makes to recent events in the capital markets are fairly obvious, whether they be failed IPOs or the strategies used by weaker sovereign nations to negotiate with stronger ones.  The point here is not to call out anyone as inherent ‘Criminal.’  There are plenty of laws – and diligent regulators - surrounding the capital markets, after all.  Rather, the examples here are simply a lens that allows us to examine the nuances of human behavior with greater understanding. As the old saying goes, 'The proper study of mankind is man.'  Even when it is a con man.  And in the case of behavioral economics, perhaps especially so. 

The state purports to represent the people when all it does is leech off their labor in order to commit crimes at home and abroad.  Under the auspices of keeping democracy safe around the world, the foreign policy of the U.S. government has been one of bombing, killing, and overall domination.  Meanwhile, anti-American sentiment continues to spread by instances such as the C.I.A. targeting civilian responders to drone strikes who attempt to aid those who were attacked.  In some cases, the C.I.A. even launches drone attacks at the mourners in funerals held for those in earlier strikes. These are the measures under which the American people are told they are being kept safe.  What would be constituted as war by any other nation is not so when carried out by the U.S. government.  But it’s all just another facade through which Washington pretends to serve the people when in reality it puts them in even more danger.

Headlines & stories from the day

Three months ago, just when things looked like they were about to turn south, the Fed's trusty mouthpiece, Jon Hilsenrath, made it clear that the market can stop falling as the Fed was "considering" sterilized QE, or more Twist, something we explained later would be impossible in the current format as the Fed would run out of sub 3 Year paper by the end of August. It did however halt the drop in stocks for a month or two until Europe became permanently unfixed. Hilsenrath then cralwed back into his WSJ cubicle. Until today: two weeks before the all critical June 20 FOMC meeting, the faithful Fed scribe has been charged with his latest leak commission: "Fed Considers More Action Amid New Recovery Doubts." And as it has been leaked (now that people have actually done the appropriate math), so it shall be.

First Moody's cut the most prominent Austrian banks, and now it is Germany's turn, if not that of the most undercapitalized German bank yet: "The ongoing rating review for Deutsche Bank AG and its subsidiaries will be concluded together with the reviews for other global firms with large capital markets operations." Punchline: "Frankfurt am Main, June 06, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today taken various rating actions on seven German banks and their subsidiaries, as well as one German subsidiary of a foreign group. As a result, the long-term debt and deposit ratings for six groups and one German subsidiary of a foreign group have declined by one notch, while the ratings for one group were confirmed. Moody's also downgraded the long-term debt and deposit ratings for several subsidiaries of these groups, by up to three notches. At the same time, the short-term ratings for three groups as well as one German subsidiary of a foreign group have been downgraded by one notch, triggered by the long-term rating downgrades."

And I thought the Florida Bar said foreclosure lawyers must report fraud to court...