Archive - Jul 25, 2012

I call ACA a disaster.

Caterpillar's stock has gotten pummeled recently, which explains why after posting results that were better than expected the stock has seen a big short squeeze, pushing it up 4% in thin pre-market trading. Of note, the company reported EPS of $2.54 on Expectations of $2.28, and revenues of $17.4 billion on estimates of $17.1 billion, yet it cut its full year revenue guidance from $68-72 billion to $68-70 billion on what it says is a weaker economy and a stronger dollar: "From the time the previous outlook was first established in January of 2012, the U.S. dollar has strengthened versus most currencies around the world.  That has negatively impacted the full-year outlook by about $1 billion as sales in currencies other than the U.S. dollar are translating into fewer U.S. dollars. While the world's economic environment is weaker than we had expected, our sales have continued to grow." Yet what is most curious is that even CAT has become schizophrenic with respect to the Fed, in one bullet point saying the Fed's easing has done nothing to "benefit economic growth" yet in another claiming more easing will not come "soon enough to benefit growth in 2012." The Bernanke put is now so pervasive even non-financial companies have to rely on the Chairman getting out of bed at just the right angle and sitting down on the CTRL-P macro.

• ECB's Nowotny - ESM banking license could be advantageous (Reuters) - just keep regurgitating headlines until they generate a short squeeze
• IMF Says China Downside Risks Significant as Growth Slows (Bloomberg)
• Moody's cuts outlook on EU stability facility to negative (Reuters)
• Rome places spending controls on Sicily (FT)
• Big banks' glory days feared to be gone for good (Reuters)
• China's CNOOC scoped Nexen, partnered, then pounced (Reuters)
• Germany backs Spanish austerity plans (FT)
• Are 2012 Games one too many for London? (Reuters)
• Euro Crisis Spreading East Damps Growth, Development Bank Says (Bloomberg)
• Japan Flags Yen-Sales Impact as BOJ Eyes More Easing (Bloomberg)

Europe is once again scrambling by clutching at broken straws and juggling dead ends.  To wit: instead of actually proposing a realistic solution to its massive debt overhang, the ECB's Ewald Nowotny "said there are arguments in favor of giving Europe’s rescue fund a banking license, reviving the debate on bolstering its firepower as leaders face the prospect of a full-scale Spanish bailout." As a reminder, this is an absolute dead end that Germany and the ECB have both repeatedly rejected as implementation would confirm just how hollow the European gutted shadow banking market (you can't have shadow banking without credible collateral). Further slamming the Nowotny comment was Daiwa which called the Nowotny statetment a Red Herring and that "remarks that ECB council member sees arguments for giving bailout fund banking license "look to be just noise," Grant Lewis, head of research at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe, says in client note. Comments appear to have been off the cuff and purely personal opinion; such a move remains “highly improbable,” as Germany and ECB “implacably opposed” to this. Finally Daiwa adds that markets will soon focus again on fact that if ESM can’t be activated in early autumn, there’s no money available to bail out Spain, “let alone Italy." 

1000s of Apple luvin', disrespectful fanbois should be rushing to apologize to the BoomBustBlog editor for failure to recognize true fundamental analysis in the face of chasing leveraged beta. Unfortunately, it just won't happen...

If the UK was desperately hoping for a "terrible" economic print, it got it this morning after preliminary Q2 GDP printed 0.7% on expectations of a -0.2% decline, following a -0.3% drop in Q1, cementing the country's double dip collapse. Reuters explains: "The Office for National Statistics said Britain's gross domestic product fell 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the sharpest fall since early 2009 and a bigger drop than any of the economists surveyed in a Reuters poll last week had expected. The figures confirmed that Britain is mired in its second recession since the financial crisis, with the economy shrinking for a third consecutive quarter. It will add pressure on Osborne to get the economy growing again after a crisis that has left many Britons poorer as rising prices and higher taxes ate up meager wage increases. Sterling hit its lowest in nearly two weeks against the dollar after the data, and government bond prices rallied on speculation that the Bank of England may have to provide more economic stimulus than expected. Earlier this month the BoE has announced another 50 billion pound program of gilt purchases with newly created money to soften a grim economic outlook, but Wednesday's data is likely to add to market speculation that it may cut interest rates later this year. "This is terrible data. Frankly there's nothing good that comes out of these numbers at all," said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank. "The economy looks to be badly holed below the water line at this stage. It's a far worse period of activity than we'd expected."" Amusingly, according to Goldman "It is difficult to reconcile the weakness of today’s official GDP data with any other indicator of economic or labour market activity." We knew the peripherals were doing all they can to sabotage their economies and be eligible for more aid and bailouts. But the UK?

Independent from Congress … or from the American People?