Archive - Jul 2012

• Bundesbank Maintains Opposition to ECB Bond Buying (WSJ)
• Greek Budget Talks Stumble as EU Urges Samaras to Deliver (Bloomberg)
• Fortified by euro, Finns take bailouts on the chin (Reuters)
• China Job Market for Graduates Shows Stress on Slowdown (Bloomberg)
• China Exports Fade as Inflation Eludes Targets: Cutting Research (Bloomberg)
• Japan Falters as Ito Calls for Euro Buys to Rein in Yen: Economy (Bloomberg)
• Government weighs social insurance reforms (China Daily)
• Colombia’s Split Central Bank to Weigh First Rate Cut Since 2010 (Bloomberg)

Following two days of desperate attempts by the ECB to talk down record peripheral bond yields without any actual action, it is only logical that while Merkel is on holiday, we get a third day of talking to buy some time purely thanks to rhetoric and jawboning, before the Chancellor comes back and spoils the party. Sure enough, here it comes via French Le Monde, whose host nation knows very well that after Spain and Italy, France is next:

• ECB PREPARING TO BUY SPANISH, ITALIAN DEBT, LE MONDE SAYS

But while the cat may be away, the Bundesbank has decided to take at least some matters into its own hands:

• BUNDESBANK SAYS IT HASN’T CHANGED STANCE ON ECB BOND BUYING, REMAINS OPPOSED TO FURTHER BOND BUYING BY THE ECB

Then just to confirm that nobody in Europe has any clue what is going on and its politicians are now just making things up on the fly, we get this:

• HOLLANDE-MERKEL TO SPEAK BY PHONE AT 1 PM ON HELP: LE MONDE

And the logical response:

• STREITER SAYS `DOESN'T KNOW' ABOUT MERKEL-HOLLANDE CALL

Sigh - when one sees such relentless lies and confusion what else can one say but... "Europe."

Below is an email that I recieved from a reader:

NOT JUST SANDY WEILL ...

There are many channels through which changes in the monetary policy stance are transmitted to the real economy. Recent statements by Draghi and Noyer (and a dropped word by Nowotny) suggest that the ECB is concerned about the uneven transmission of its July interest rate cut to bank lending rates across the Euro area. Goldman finds this empirically true, noting that the influence of official ECB rates on retail interest rates in Italy and Spain has diminished, while it has increased in Germany and France and in fact there is a ‘reversal of policy transmission’ in Spain and Italy, whereby ECB rate cuts are now associated with an increase, rather than a fall, in retail rates (as the rapid deterioration in peripheral banking systems has more than offset any impact of lower rates). This 'failure' of standard monetary policy to ease conditions has led to the non-standard measures being discussed now. We see three points from this: rate cuts are less likely than the market believes; while SMP is now being priced in, it doesn't specifically address the transmission-mechanism; and just as Draghi hinted at in his last conference, we suspect he will reiterate his reduced collateral standards and increased eligibility to private-sector loans directly (an LTRO 2.5) - which, however, will necessarily encumber bank balance sheets even more (if Zee Germans will even agree to it).

How can such a small country blow through so much money?

Those who Benefited from Wall Street Fraud Must be Prosecuted … Including Rogue Government Officials who Aided and Abetted the Crimes

Somewhat stunned by the market's exuberant reaction to Mario Draghi's 'Believe Me' speech this morning, Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, sees the slow-motion train-wreck that is the European crisis speeding up and rapidly running out of track. Charles sees the European crisis as "not a solvable problem the way the world works today." Neither Draghi nor any of the bankers even bothers to talk about the real problem of not enough regional income and too much government spending. Draghi's only solution is some form of money printing. "Printing money to pay bills maybe will work over the short term. But long term, it cannot"; if money printing works in the real world why not print and give every one a billion Dollars, Euros or Yen? While governments will do anything to maintain the status quo (and avoid the tough times ahead), Charles succinctly reminds that, "the road to hell is paved with good intentions."

Do this (sidewalk chalking) at the place where they’re committing the crime.

Angering Spain by seizing and nationalizing a majority of Repsol’s shares in YPF and ramping up the rhetoric over the Falkland Islands as exploration deals promise to make the territory a major oil player overnight, Argentina is making few friends in the fossil fuels industry these days. Sam Logan, owner of the Latin America-focused private intelligence boutique, Southern Pulse, speaks to Oilprice.com about the politics of populism behind Argentina’s energy aggression.

In a week which has seen the Fed telegraphing further QEasing by its favorite mouthpiece, and the ECB promising, but never delivering, both that the ESM would get a banking license, which prevented the EURUSD from tumbling below 1.20 yesterday yet which has been totally forgotten today, and that we should "beeleeve" Mario Draghi that unlike before he will not let the EUR fail, the cherry on top and the one event which removes any doubt that the coordinated events of this whole have had the sole purposes of masking that US corporate success has finally plateaued and it is 'only downhill from here', comes courtesy of the CME which moments ago cut the margin requirements on the bulk of its equity indices by 20-25%.

Will the Fed then just keep printing forever and ever? As an aside, financial markets are already trained to adjust their expectations regarding central bank policy according to their perceptions about economic conditions. There is a feedback loop between central bank policy and market behavior. This can easily be seen in the behavior of the US stock market: recent evidence of economic conditions worsening at a fairly fast pace has not led to a big decline in stock prices, as people already speculate on the next 'QE' type bailout. This strategy is of course self-defeating, as it is politically difficult for the Fed to justify more money printing while the stock market remains at a lofty level. Of course the stock market's level is officially not part of the Fed's mandate, but the central bank clearly keeps a close eye on market conditions. Besides, the 'success' of 'QE2' according to Ben Bernanke was inter alia proved by a big rally in stocks. But what does printing money do? And how does the self-defeating idea of perpetual QE fit with the Credit Cycle relative to Government Directed Inflation (or inability to direct inflation where they want it in the case of the ECB and BoE)?

Yesterday we showed how out of a universe 21 'analysts', just one ended up being correct on ZNGA. The trick part of the question was that the 'analyst' in question was actually a computer quant model. Today, we look at FB whose price has just tumbled to a new all time post-IPO low with a $23 handle. And just like with ZNGA today, where BTIG's Richard Greenfield ended up apologizing for his horrible call, something tells us tomorrow we will get quite a few more apologies too, not least from Greenfield again whose Neutral call will hardly be "good enough" for a stock that has now lost over a third of its value since its market cap.