Archive - Jul 2012

The ADP Private jobs report is out, and in June America allegedly created 176K private jobs, better than expectations of 100K, and up from last month's 136K revised print. What hasn't changed is the continued lack of correlation between the ADP and the NFP report, nor the ongoing deterioration in claims. More importantly, Obama's promise of doubling US exports in 5 years from 2 years ago may be in jeopardy, since of the 176,000K extra jobs created, a whopping 4K was in manufacturing, the rest, or 160,000K, was service jobs.

In continuing the quantum physics scramble of the past 48 hours in the aftermath of the potential Higgs Boson discovery which confirms mass exists (and will soon be blamed for America's obesity epidemic) we ask if three of the world's largest central banks eased and futures turned red, did three of the world's largest central banks actually ease? Because if today is any indication, either all the EURUSD-ES algos are being furiously shut down right now to prevent risk from being dragged far lower, or we have reached peak central planner intervention. In other news, the entire EURUSD ramp since last week's summit is now gone, which incidentally is just what Germany always wanted.

The global central bank market propping continues with the ECB following in the footsteps of the BOE and PBOC, and cutting its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 0.75%, and the deposit rate to 0%. EURUSD slides. In other news, today the BOE, PBOC and now ECB have all eased.... and ES is up a whopping 0.2%. Houston: we have a problem.

• Finland (which with Holland account for 50% of the Eurozone's AAA rated countries), just says "Ei" to stripping ESM subordination (Bloomberg)
• Libor Rate Scandal Set to Spread (WSJ)
• #ByeBarclays flashmob descends on bank (FinExtra)
• What is financial reform in China? (Pettis)
• Cities Consider Seizing Mortgages (WSJ)
• China Beige Book Shows Pickup Unseen in Official Data (BBG)
• China’s New Rules May Curb Credit Growth, CBRC Official Says (BBG)
• India Said to Pay in Euros for Iranian Oil Due to Rupee Hurdles (BBG)
• Wealthy Hit Hardest as France Raises Taxes (FT)
• Euro Bank Supervisor Faces Hurdles (WSJ)

While everyone was expecting the BOE to return back to QEasing with a £50 Billion increase in its asset purchase program(me), to a total of £375 billion, which is what just happened, the bigger news came 1 second before the BOE announcement, with China declaring it has cut benchmark interest rates as once again the fate of the whole world is in the hands of small groups of academics, promising each other bottles of Bollinger if they can only get the S&P500 over 1,400. In other words, once again small groups of people around the world sat down and conspired (perfectly legally) to manipulate global interest rates. No hearings are scheduled.

So much for the latest European bail out. Not even a full week after the last European dead of night summit, which supposedly "was different this time", and Spanish bond yields have already retraced virtually the entire move lower, and after sliding to as low as 6.1%, are now back to 6.62% as of this morning, 22 bps wider on the day, as a result of the now generic realization that nothing actually changed, and also following the latest abysmal and unsustainable (there's that key word again) auction out of Spain, which sold bonds due 2015, 2016 and 2022, even as its default risk is now wider than that of Ireland.

ECB is running out of options. Germany can't afford any more bailouts.  Euro is overvalued compared to the dollar.

The plan to fleece the entire country in order to sustain the survival of an obsolete social welfare system is doomed, yet it may be implemented for a few months. But endeavouring to also fleece our German friends is a dangerous and reckless ambition. Why should they accept to contribute to the financing of a 60 year retirement age in France when they have just raised it domestically to 67? Certainly, Germany would have a lot to lose with the implosion of the euro. But it is politically untenable to demand support for social benefits that the Germans have denied for themselves and unrealistic to imagine they can single-handedly carry the burden of a spendthrift Europe.

Confused by all the amusing arguments of a housing "recovery" (because if you believe in it, it just may come true.... maybe) in the sad context of a reality in which the economy is once again turning from bad to worse missing expectations left and right (for every report surprising to the upside, two do the opposite), corporate earnings and margins have rolled over, US states and cities and European countries are filing for default or demanding bailouts at an ever faster pace, and only headlines such as "stocks rise on hopes of more central bank easing" appear in the good news columns of mainstream media? Don't be: David Rosenberg explains it all.

Whether gold-bug, permabull, or deflationst; BofAML provides a little something for everyone in the most complete picture guide to 'financial markets since 1800'. A collection of almost 100 charts on asset price returns, correlations, volatility, valuations and many other market and macro factors for the US, UK, Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets.

“History does not repeat itself but it does rhyme.”
-Mark Twain

Happy 4th. Big fireworks coming....

"Limor"