Archive - Aug 10, 2012

The juggernaut continues as Egan Jones exposes a key issue we have been discussing: namely that in the absence of actual trading, banks, which can no longer rely on Net Interest Margin, will have to get smaller, leaner and more efficient, or else lose some of the competition. Such as Bear. Such as Lehman. Maybe, even, such as Knight.

The last few weeks have not been fun for California. Facebook's face-plant removed a large part of the unbelievably 'expected' tax revenues for the state, Stockton BK'd, and now we find out that San Bernadino - the latest and greatest city to file for municipal bankruptcy (after a $46 million shortfall in its budget was irreconcilable). The reason it's a big deal - unfortunately the state's retirement fund - CalPERS - is the city's largest creditor by far with a wonderful $143.3 million exposure. This is more than half the entire debt load of $281.4 million of the Top 20 creditors alone! The deadline for creditors to challenge bankruptcy eligibility is September 21st and we suspect that until then, the comptrollers should be renamed the Golden State Worriers? What is ironic is the same unions that we suppose are fighting the city over cuts and forcing it to take such drastic action are likely to be entirely beholden to their pension benefits from the very same CalPERS which is about to take a sizable haircut.

I am sickened by the vast sums I see households squandering on hopelessly marginal "investments" in expensive higher education, healthcare and housing. I too am caught in the crony-capitalist/State cartel web of waste, skimming and fraud: we have paid tens of thousands of dollars on no-frills healthcare insurance (no eyewear, no dental, no meds, $50 co-pay) in the past decade, and received perhaps 3% of this sum in care. But to not have health insurance in America is to invite financial ruin should we suffer some serious illness. The same "must-have" argument supports the conventional wisdom about education: a young person "must have" a college degree if they hope to escape a lifetime of poverty. The issue isn't education per se, it's the ever-rising cost of an education that has arguably lost value in a global job market that faces a vast surplus of educated workers and a scarcity of secure, high-paying jobs. Simply put, minting 10,000 PhD chemists (for example) does not magically create 10,000 jobs for PhD chemists. Yes, education and healthcare are necessary, but cartels have leveraged this necessity into vast skimming operations that yield marginal returns even as their costs balloon without limit. Housing is also a necessity, but it does not follow that it is a high-yield investment. Rather, it has become a sinkhole for hard-earned, scarce cash.

What's the point in commenting any more: when two discrete trades manage a nearly 1% cumulative roundtrip move in the entire market, all we can say is "good luck human" - the whale on the other side of "that" trade is far bigger than Bruno Iksil. And good luck when you need liquidity once the selling returns. The discount to the bid will be far, far more than the 5% it cost Knight to unwind its error book to Goldman.

Otherwise… No titbits…

Nada. Rien. Nichts. Nothing.

Money printing isn't creating inflation because the velocity of money has declined, right?

July was not a bad month for most hedge funds. There is, however, one big problem: virtually all of them underperformed the S&P. As they did in June. As they did in May. Etc. Etc. And that has been the theme this whole year: hedge funds, which account for over $2 trillion in unlevered purchasing power, and between $4-6 trillion levered, are not doing badly, they are simply  underperforming the S&P very badly, in many cases by more than 2 standard deviations. And as all those fund managers who wake up and go to bed with two words on their minds: "career risk", underperforming the benchmark, or in this case the broad stock market, which does not demand 2 and 20, is the surest way to extinction. Then again, in a centrally planned market in which a hedge fund called Tulip Trend is the best performer Year To Date (and in which Paulson's Disadvantage Minus continues to be the worst), nothing can really surprise any more.

Gold is significantly #winning today - well ahead of stocks and the USD after being closely synced with them since the lows last Friday pre-ramp. The question is why? We have an idea. Gold and stocks have been closely correlated on the back of expectations of Fed/ECN unsterilized printing - as gold has taken on the appearance of a risk asset - and rightfully so given the nature of these markets dependence on CBs. However, stocks have outperformed in their own manipulated manner as whatever magic pressure has held gold down continues (as they both rise as simple proxies for more money flooding the system). In a very similar echo of 2009, the last 6-9 months have seen the value of the S&P 500 priced in Gold dip aggressively and then surge back. At current levels we are getting 'rich' in terms of equities priced in real stores of value. And perhaps, just as in 2009, we are about to see real stores of value catch up to equity valuations and continue this outperformance...Gold rallied 23% relative to stocks in the preceding three months.

Just when you had got over the entirely inane creation of a living-will that purports to solve the taxpayer's dilemma should a large SIFI hit an iceberg; Reuters reports - this time super secret - the Fed, in 2010, asked for a plan from the US' Big 5 Banks for staving off collapse if they faced serious problems - critically emphasizing that the banks can't rely on government help. Read that again and we dare you not to laugh. It seems regulators are trying hard to ensure banks have plans for worst-case scenarios - in order to act rationally in times of distress. Recovery plans differ from living wills, also known as 'resolution plans', and are about protecting the crown jewels - the shareholders - while a resolution plan is about protecting the system, taxpayers and creditors; of course it's all ridiculous smoke and mirrors. Interestingly, Reuters has uncovered an 'Orderly Liquidation of a Failed SIFI' presentation - embedded below  - sponsored by JPMorgan which is reassuringly positive of this end of the world contagion scenario.

While we have pointed out that 10Y Spanish bonds have deteriorated notably since the Euphoric moves recently, we have oft heard the stoic bulls arguing thus: but, but, but... 2Y is where the real action is and that's where the ECB will support them. Umm, sorry, even amid a dismally quiet and illiquid week which should see yields drifting lower as they roll gently down the curve, 2Y Spanish bond yields have retraced 50% of their rally from last Friday and are comfortably back above 4% once again. Perhaps, slowly but surely, the realization that for it to get better, it has to get much worse is taking hold - though obviously US equity holders have yet to get that message.

Manchester United IPO'd at $14, opened at $14.10, popped to a huge $14.20, and is now being heavily defended at $14.00...

Lost in the complete and utter lack of newsflow yesterday (no pun intended) were some comments from Otmar Issing, former chief economist of the ECB. Also a German. Also an advisor for Goldman Sachs. In the absence of Angela Merkel and Schauble, both of whom are still conducting privatization due diligence on Santorini, he decided to present the German view to all the recent bluster and posturing by Europe choosing beggars. What he so conveniently explained is just why "European Union" is the biggest oxymoron imaginable, and why Germany will hardly smile quietly as the rest of the continent uses history as its only leverage to shame Germany into funding the bailout of its broke neighbors. In fact, what Issing confirms, is why any hope that a Federalist union in a continent in which deep seated hatred runs deep, and will promptly overtake any of the happiness associated with the recent 30 years of fake prosperity, is doomed. Art Cashin explains.

It's been six weeks since the EU Summit that apparently laid the foundation for all that is good in Europe to evolve. Between the EU Summit's euphoria-to-dysphoria flip-flop and Draghi's believe-to-deceive-to-promise roller-coaster, bond prices/yields and stock prices have had a wild ride - but there is a very clear disconnect now. Since 6/28, Spanish and Italian 10Y spreads are unchanged - yes the very instrument that is supposed to benefit from all this chin-wagging and jawboning has done nothing! Meanwhile - the previously synced at the hip equity markets of these two nations have soared - both now above immediate knee-jerk highs of the EU Summit. This leaves Italy's FTSEMIB almost 7% over-valued relative to its credit risk and Spain's IBEX around 6%; whether this is due to the short-sale ban or simply an irrational willful ignorance of fact over hope - we suggest the convergence offers some better hope (especially as Rajoy sees his party support waning).

As reported on Wednesday night, China's economy is contracting faster than anyone expected. As further reported last night, China loan creation at 540.1 billion yuan was far below economist estimates of 700 billion. In other words: the world's marginal economy is starting to crack. So the PBOC has no choice but to ease right? Wrong. As we showed yesterday, the Chinese central bank has one mandate above all: food price stability, or else suffer the consequences of "1+ billion people instability." And as the USDA report just confirmed, Soybean is going nowhere but up. Which in turn means Chinese food inflation, which makes up 30% of the headline CPI (unlike America's 7.8%) is set to follow. Still hoping and praying that the PBOC will ease even as the deep fried black swan we warned about 2 weeks ago is rapidly flapping its wings toward Beijing? Hope and pray harder.