Archive - Sep 18, 2012

Once upon a time, the Federal Reserve decided to adopt the Taylor rule, named after Stanford economist John Taylor, as its key determinant in setting the Fed Funds rate. Then, after it realized that the original formulation of the Taylor rule was too constricting and not as permissive to pro-inflationary policy as the Fed's financial sector superiors demanded, it decided to adjust the Taylor rule formulation to its own parameters so that it was always in sync with whatever policy, monetary or as of QEterenity, pseudo-fiscal, it decided to pursue. In the meantime, John Taylor has become one of the more vocal critics of Ben Bernanke's printing ways if for no other reason then because the original Taylor rule says that instead of ZIRP at least until 2015, the Fed should be tightening right now.

We discussed the inflationary costs and deflationary benefits of government action or inaction earlier - specifically with regard to the middle class. Bloomberg TV provided a succinct clip this morning that showed the one chart that Obama (and also Romney just as likely) would really not like to see. Loosely defined as lying between the ruling class and the proletariat, it would seem that George Washington himself would be distraught as the median net worth of the middle class has plunged 28% since 2000 back to early 90s levels (while the ruling class is up around 1%) and the lower tier down around 45%. Forget the lost decade, watch these 90 seconds to get a clue and see that Japan is not the only nation suffering under 20 years of subjugation.

Last week it was the Fed crossing the Rubicon with infinite easing. We explained very clearly that the next steps would be everyone else joining the infinite easing party. Sure enough, here comes the first one:

• BOJ TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL EASING: NIKKEI

Keep in mind that the BOJ already monetizes ETFs and REITs, the very instruments which the Fed will soon be forced to buy. And so it begins - because when it comes to pushing CTRL and P, over and over, it really doesn't take much skill.

Since 2007 our analysis has suggested the likelihood of economic outcomes that most have considered unlikely: significant and ongoing monetary inflation, policy-administered currency devaluation, substantial global price inflation, and an eventual change in how the forty year old global monetary system is structured. Most observers have viewed such outlooks as tail events – highly unlikely, unworthy of serious consideration or a long way off. We remain resolute, and believe last week’s movements in Frankfurt and Washington towards perpetual quantitative easing confirmed and accelerated the validity of our outlook. With QBAMCO's view that $15,000 - $19,000 Gold is possible, timing of the catch-up phase is impossible - though they suspect last week's events may be the catalyst that begins to raise public awareness of the link between monetary inflation and price inflation.

"Watch your mouth, or you're off to the camps."

Just over a week ago, we wrote of the challenge to Obama's NDAA totalitarian bill. Hope remained that Chris Hedges' view of the indefinite detention as "unforgivable, unconstitutional, and exceedingly dangerous" would bolster judgment. However, as Russia Today reports, a lone appeals judge bowed down to the Obama administration late Monday and reauthorized the White House's ability to indefinitely detain American citizens without charge or due process. On Monday, the US Justice Department asked for an emergency stay on the previous Chris Hedges'-driven order, and hours later US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit Judge Raymond Lohier agreed to intervene and place a hold on the injunction. The stay will remain in effect until at least September 28, when a three-judge appeals court panel is expected to begin addressing the issue. It would appear the total fascist takeover of Amerika is drawing nearer by the day.

Several weeks ago we learned that 2011's vaporizer extraordinaire Jon Corzine is contemplating starting his own hedge fund: presumably one that invests all its capital in Italian 2 year bonds, charges 2 and 20, and then disappears when all LP capital blows up in an AUM supernova. Today, we learn that the stigma freeze associated with all other former MF Global trading whizkids has officially melted, as the former head of equity derivatives of MF Global has just launched a new hedge fund. From Bloomberg: "Daniel Bystrom, former head of equity derivatives trading at MF Global Inc., and Neil Boyarsky plan to start Hawksfield Capital LLC, a New York-based equity volatility hedge fund, by the end of this month. Hawksfield Capital will start with $10 million to $20 million of Bystrom and Boyarsky’s own money, as well as capital from friends and family, Bystrom said in a telephone interview. “The fund will deliver returns that are uncorrelated and often negatively correlated to the returns of the typical hedge- fund strategy,” Bystrom said. “The opportunity set expands dramatically in times of higher volatility, when most other asset classes are not performing well.” Such as the stock of MF Global perhaps?

It appears that the strike that had crippled South Africa's precious metals industry is coming to an end. Reuters reports that striking miners at Lonmin's Marikana mine in South Africa said on Tuesday they accepted a management pay rise offer and would return to work on Thursday after six weeks of mining sector unrest that shook Africa's largest economy. The cost to get back to work? A 22% hike in wages, and a corresponding crunch in corporate margins (which we hope finally clears up to all those who have been so confused for years why a surge in the underlying PMs usually tends to backfire on the miners extracting it, as labor costs surge as much if not more). "The gathered strikers cheered near the mine, 100 km (60 miles) northwest of Johannesburg, when they were informed of the 22 percent wage increase offer, a Reuters witness said." Lonmin is not alone: "In another sign that weeks of labour unrest in South Africa's platinum belt could be ending, world No. 1 platinum producer Anglo American Platinum said it had resumed its operations in the strike-hit Rustenburg area. On the news of the Marikana agreement, the spot platinum price fell 2 percent to a session low at $1,627.49/oz and the rand firmed against the dollar."

Lot of noon / afternoon official chatter on the wires, but eventually nothing highly conclusive.

And oops… I still have the Blues.

Between the anti-Japanese tensions and the converging dominance of the Japanese with the Chinese to our fiscal status quo, it seems the Chinese are increasingly pushing the US hand to supporting the Japanese. Via Ai Weiwei, contemporary Chinese artist, the US Embassy in Beijing is under protest by the Chinese marchers demanding (Google Translated) "Pay Back The Money" and "Down with US Imperialism". Some embassy cars were attacked - apparently on the back of the US role in the China-Japan tensions. The question now is what happens to China's Treasury holdings? They already threatened Japan with economic sanctions and now the populist view is turning anti-American at a time of new leadership. We assume they will continue to sell down their USD-based Treasury holdings and convert to Gold as they have been for the past year. With 2 months until the election, this will be an interesting distraction of global importance as the US is forced to support Japan or throw them under the bus.

Going back to the FOMC's own archives reveals some truly stunning disclosures arising from none other than the Federal Reserve on the topics of inflation, currency "debauching", money creation, and what it would take for the Communists and Stalin to win. "I agree with you entirely that the Soviet dictators would like to bring about our economic collapse and, as you know, inflation is perhaps the greatest force for arraying the various sectors of a capitalistic economy against each other. John Maynard Keynes stated in his 'Economic Consequences of the Peace' (1919): 'Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency...Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of Society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.'"

Nuclear News Roundup

The Grand Plan, as we have espoused for years, is to force all 'safe' assets to a point where they appear 'rich' to 'risk' assets - and inflate another bubble to take our eyes off the debt being inflated away in the other hand. In the Fed's mind, they tried this before with QE1 and it worked magnificently - lifting stocks phoenix-like from the ashes of a credit-crunch reality. However, this time is different. The last time the Fed forced MBS CurCpn yields down to 'match' the S&P 500's dividend yield was March 2009 - and investors 'rotated' back to risk (to many people's surprise). Yields were at 4% then and the S&P's P/E multiple was 10x; this time yields are just above 2% and the S&P 500's P/E multiple is a staggering 14.9x. We suspect that rather than re-enacting the post-March 2009 eruption, valuations this time will force that liquidity to flood into non-equity asset classes (and with HY call-constrained, it leaves little but the energy and precious metals complex to soak up the Fed's exuberance).

An enormous industry has built up on a very thin legal foundation, and now it's starting to sway dangerously in the wind

As the US Presidential and Congressional election campaigns move into their frenetic final stages ahead of the November 6th polling date, we thought it would be good to see what the futures markets think about the outcome. As UBS notes, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) are futures markets allow traders to take positions, with real money, on a variety of economic and political events, the best known of which are US elections. Since inception, the IEM has had an impressive track record of forecasting elections, consistently better than conventional polls months in advance. The current data, however, highly contradictory - or Schrodinger-like - as the gap in the popular vote has narrowed significantly, yet the gap in the winner-take-all election result market has widened dramatically in favor of Obama. Furthermore, there is a 70% chance the Republicans wrest control of the Senate and the probability of the democrats gaining a House of Representatives majority is a mere 10%. It would seem gridlock will persist with a divided government - not good news for the fiscal cliff.