Archive - Sep 21, 2012

Everyone has been desperately waiting for this. At 3:00 pm it will be publicly released. Hopefully, shortly thereafter we can proceed with the discussion of important things such as the complete economic collapse of not only America, but the entire world (which is apparently now hooked into voting for Obama as disclosed earlier). For those strapped for time here is the summary: Romneys 2011 tax rate 14.1%, Charity donations: 30%; Obamas tax rate: 20.5%, Charity donations: 22%. And going back, "Over the entire 20-year period, the average annual effective federal tax rate was 20.20%."

Highlights:

• In 2011, the Romneys paid $1,935,708 in taxes on $13,696,951 in mostly investment income.

• The Romneys’ effective tax rate for 2011 was 14.1%.

• The Romneys donated $4,020,772 to charity in 2011, amounting to nearly 30% of their income.

• The Romneys claimed a deduction for $2.25 million of those charitable contributions.

• The Romneys’ generous charitable donations in 2011 would have significantly reduced their tax obligation for the year. The Romneys thus limited their deduction of charitable contributions to conform to the Governor's statement in August, based upon the January estimate of income, that he paid at least 13% in income taxes in each of the last 10 years.

"This time it's different" and "Ugly is contained"

Between CNBC's Rick Santelli and PIMCO's Mohammed El-Erian, this brief clip succinctly sums up the 'less than ideal' reality of Bernanke's all-in bet and how the world is trying to 'trade' it. Santelli analogizes: "Visualize the biggest fire hose in the world, 20 miles away from a little Geranium plant? Now this hose is going and going and going, and ultimately, that Geranium plant gets a little bit of water but everything around it and leading up to it for miles around is just underwater. That's QE, in my opinion." To which El-Erian retorts: "at what point do you tell investors stop focusing on the benefits and make the collateral damage the investment theme?" It seems, given gold's outperformance, that this is exactly what is occurring as the hose-pipe's flood spills out everywhere.

Save a Debt Brother...

Our quote of the week award recipient is none other than Atlanta Fed's Dennis Lockhart for the following pearl of wisdom:

• LOCKHART SAYS FED WILL BUY BONDS UNTIL U.S. EMPLOYMENT IMPROVES.

Considering that employment is bad because of Fed "bond buys", which are preventing price clearing and discovery, and perpetuating the worst capital misallocation environment in the history of the world (if not for Apple's professional line waiters), one should just replace "buy bonds" with "continue beatings" and "U.S. employment" with "morale."

We won't even pretend to claim we have any idea what is going on here. We know it's pretty and very detailed, so some intern definitely wasted lots of hours to plug goalseeked fund flow data (which is never accurate and is merely an estimated plug using actual calculated private fund flows) into this schematic demonstrating how the Japanese economy performed in the most recent quarter. We also know that while largely irrelevant, it would be useful for our own Federal Reserve to come out with something comparable.

So after 2 hell of positive weeks with fairy dust sprinkled by the CBU (Central Banks United), things seem a little out of breath here.

Post-Central Bank intervention depression, so to speak, as the question on everyone’s mind is “What’s next?

Add to that soured geopolitics that stirred spirits in Asia, MENA and to some extend in regional Spain.

The single most often broached argument that Liberty Movement writers, analysts, and strategists are confronted with by skeptics alongside well meaning but cynical newcomers is the assertion that while we happen to be very effective at pointing out the dangers of globalism and centralization, we rarely seem to take the initiative to offer “solutions” to the problem.  This same argument is also used by establishment shills as a way to distract the public’s attentions from the very real despotic enterprises of their elitist employers. In reality, the contention that the Liberty Movement offers no solutions is entirely false.  We have constructed many.  The problem is that these solutions are not the kind that the general American public wants to entertain. The bottom line is that there is little time left for top-down political fairytale dreams, and little utility left in standard street actions.  The real solutions require blood, sweat, and tears, starting with a method I have discussed for quite some time:  Decentralization.

It is hard to tell why the Federal Reserve moved so quickly into QE3 this past week. Was this move necessary with mortgage rates already in negative territory?

One of the most astute financial analysts in the world, Jim Grant, founder of highly respected Grant's Interest Rate Observer, was asked by Maria Bartiromo on CNBC yesterday “how high can gold go”? Grant responded that "there is no telling." 

Some have argued that iPhone 5 will single-handedly save the world's economy (as we 'discussed' here) and indeed it seems an entire new category of employment has been created thanks to the pathetic desperation of so many needing the new 'old' iPhone. As Bloomberg BusinessWeek reports, among the thousands of people expected to wait for hours outside of Apple's stores today, at least a couple hundred of them will be paid just to stand there. TaskRabbit appears to be the pre-emptive winner in 'arranging' these 'waiting-in-line' deals as one 'queuer' stated "I am a professional line waiter." Of course, the conspiracist would wonder aloud whether these crowd-fillers and line-waiters are indirectly 'purchased' to create more buzz by the demigod itself. Nevertheless, what an inspiration these Americans are: "I've done other waiting-in-line things. I think it's going to end up being, like, my specialty."

Moments ago, a stray headline crossing Bloomberg was the catalyst for violent selling across the precious metal complex. The headline in question is this:

• SOUTH AFRICA GOLD PRODUCERS TO CONSIDER BRINGING FWD WAGE TALKS

The reason for the puke in PMs is the goalseeked as follows: since miners are willing to negotiate wage hikes, the miner strike may soon be over. Well, they said that last week, when the Lonmin Maricana mine strike ended. All that happened next was for every other miner in South Africa to demand equitable terms, making the strike even worse than before. What it will mean, if indeed passed, is that a broad swath of PM miners will face default sooner rather than later, as they will be completely unable to pass on 20% cost surges to consumers, and many will file for bankruptcy sending capacity far lower in the long-run than currently, even with the mine strike. What is most funny, however, is the response in silver, which plunged in sympathy with gold and platinum as can be seen on the chart below. There is one small detail: please point out in the table below of the world's largest 20 producers of silver, just where is South Africa.

The old 'new normal' bond guru succinctly sums up Bernanke's failed logic with QEternity in 80 characters...

Gross: Fed buys Mtges but banks fail to pass through lower yields to future home buyers.

— PIMCO (@PIMCO) September 21, 2012

Gold has now reached all-time record highs in terms of the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Brazilian Real. Gold in USD is up 90% from the March 2009 equity lows and up 50-65% in the rest of the major fiat currencies.