Archive - Sep 25, 2012

Must-See Pictures

So… the Fed has engaged in record intervention in the market and economy. Despite this, the US “recovery” has in fact been a total dud: we’re officially back in a recession. And inflation is hitting lift off. This means the US, like China and Europe, is no longer an engine for global growth. Combined these three regions account for 55% of global GDP.

Remember Jean-Claude Juncker? The guy who promised he would quit his unelected post in Europe's neo-vassal imperial council, and tend to his garden or something due to the endless acrimony between France and Germany, only to clarify later he lied? Well, here he is again

• JUNCKER SAYS THOSE BETTING ON EURO BREAKUP 'SERIOUSLY MISTAKEN'

Got it. Of course, this is the same guy who said "When it becomes serious, you have to lie." It is, again, serious.

Liquidity, Fund Flows and Technicals matter now. Fundamentals, Dow Theory and the real economy, not so much. 

We have not been aggressive anti-CDS fanatics in the past - since the ignorance of mainstream media types satisfies that need - as the reality in the credit market is less extreme than many would love it to be. However, the latest move by Markit and its self-aggrandizing dealer owner/clients, to bring names into the high-yield credit index that do not even have CDS trading on them, is simply remarkable. While they will defend the move on the basis that it will force dealers to provide single-name CDS liquidity in three of the high-yield credit markets most-indebted companies (CIT, Charter Comms, and Calpine), the fact is that they are using the liquidity/fungibility of the index to enable risk to be unwound on what is likely bloated balance sheets containing too much of this crap. By imagining (or fixing LIBOR-style) where the CDS would trade, based on where the firms' bonds trade, we worry that the hitherto somewhat liquid source of 'fast' macro-hedging or positioning has become even more manipulable than before - and in the event of a default (or stress/illiquidity event), we can only imagine the law-suits. As the FT notes - all this does is provide more 'arbitrage' opportunities as opposed to real hedging; simply amazing that as with equities - it is now the synthetic indices that run the entire market.

Since any debt issued under 3 years during ZIRP (i.e., in perpetuity) is nothing more than a cash for cash exchange, only with the conversion of counterparty risk from unsecured bank obligations (if cash outflow is from deposits) into Uncle Sam exposure, it is no surprise that today's 2 year bond auction was a snoozer. Sure enough, the just auctioned off $35 billion in 2 year bonds came at a nominal yield of 0.273%, precisely where it was last month, with investors getting a nominal yield in the off chance that Bernanke loses all control of the curve and hyperinflation arrives in under 730 days. For now this probability appears minimal. The internals were just as boring. a 3.6 bid to cover, lower than last month's 3.94, and below the TTM average of 3.77. Directs took down 17.5%, Indirects 27.27% and Dealers were stuck holding 55.33% of the same bonds that Bernanke will be selling to them soon too, resulting in a PD inventory in the 1-3 year window near all time highs. And following the balance of this week's auctions, which include a 5 and 7 year bond for a total of $99 billion in gross issuance, net US debt will rise by $46.8 billion, which together with an earlier net addition of $13 billion in debt, will take total US debt to just shy of $16.1 trillion.

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,766.75, EUR 1,369.36, GBP 1,088.37 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,758.50, EUR 1,361.91 and GBP 1,084.96 per ounce.

Gold fell $8.60 or 0.49% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,764.50. Silver slipped to a low of $33.594 then rebounded in New York, but it still finished with a loss of 1.62%.

Gold Seasonality Chart - Heatmap

As we observed earlier, Spain, whose YTD expenditures are now nearly 10% greater than last year, has yet to implement any austerity (dear Spanish readers, if your standard of living has gone down it has nothing to do with less government spending, and everything to do with corruption and incompetent politicians). Yet even so, the locals (who at 24% unemployment have quite a bit of free time on their hands) are quite unhappy, and as Art Cashin observed earlier, are "occupying congress" or otherwise indicating their displeasure with the world. Those who wish to follow the major Spanish protest in Madrid, can do so here.

It's becoming clear that there is only one sensible solution ahead of us as the Eurozone’s problems evolve: Germany and the other countries suited to a strong currency should leave. If they do, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be free to pursue the easy money policies recommended by Keynesians and monetarists alike. It's increasingly clear that Germany has no option but to behave like any creditor seeking to protect its interests – and do its best to defuse the growing resentment against her from the Eurozone’s debtors. If Germany is to abandon the euro, it has to do so as quickly and elegantly as possible. It must be able to demonstrate that it has no alternative and that it is the best solution for all parties involved. Germany’s politicians know this. For the moment they are frozen in a state of inaction, but there is a general election to concentrate their minds in about a year’s time - and Germany’s electorate is becoming acutely aware of the enormity of the task. It has become obvious to many people from all walks of life in Germany that the euro has done them no good, and, far from reaping benefits, they are actually less wealthy as a result of it.

As we noted earlier, the main reason for the surge in consumer "confidence" in September was the near record surge in sentiment for those making $15,000-$25,000, which soared from 43.5 to 62.4 in the month, the most since April 2009. And whether this was due to their forecast of the future, and expectation that things will get much better, or not, we don't know, what we do know is that half all of those people whose sentiment defined the market tone today, and who may be quite instrumental in the outcome of the upcoming election (per Mitt Romney), have less than $100 in cash savings. Other findings: both males and females reported similar savings patterns, however, 55 percent of Americans with children under the age of 18 reported having less than $800 in emergency savings compared to 42 percent of those without. Findings also reflect disparities across geographic regions, with 60 percent of individuals living in both the Northeast and the West having $800 or more in savings, yet 31 percent of those living in the North Central region reported that they had less than $100. Most importantly, 23% of all Americans have less than $100 in savings to cover any emergency expenses, and 46% have less than $800. One can see why when it comes to the discussion of whether or not financial assets should be taxes, soon 46% may be the new 47%. 

Draghi jawboned Zee Germans and rumors of another 'path to fiscal union' were enough to provide equity markets with some ammo to buy-the-dip following the ECB/Buba news that they were lawyering up over the legality of the OMT (and IMF doubting Greece's ability to fund). Rapidly, the high-beta 'options' on Europe - i.e. IBEX, ripped and that dragged stocks into the green across Europe. BUT - while EURUSD also improved (which provided US equity traders with their pre-European-close methadone), European sovereign spreads did not follow the same path of exuberance, Greek bonds tumbled off highs, and European corporate and financial credit spreads cracked wider and kept going in the biggest divergence since Draghi's Dream speech. It seems that post the CDS roll, positioning is becoming a little more nuanced and for sure - credit markets are not buying it...

Another fairly uninspiring day.

In absence of hard data, subject to rumours and sentiment, as well as sudden “squeezes” or “sell-offs”, albeit in very tight ranges.

Mood maybe less rainy then yesterday, but, call me a bear, it doesn’t feel very convincing out there.

Perhaps the IMF forgot, but nobody in Europe is allowed to rock the boat until the Obama reelection. Either way, this just hit:

• International Monetary Fund won’t agree to further aid payment to Greece before decisions taken on new debt restructuring, Athens-based Skai.gr reports on website, without citing anyone.
• IMF insists debt ratio come down to 120% of GDP in 2020
• IMF may stop funding Greece under bailout agreement

Since the credibility of those "without citing anyone" reports is more or less negative, expect an official IMF response in minutes. On the other hand, if there is no IMF response, look for the #Grexit hashtags to promptly reappear.

Get out your magnifying glasses boys and girls...

It's perhaps not the most shocking headline given the circumstances but as Bloomberg reports via DPA, the man in charge of handling the correspondence at Italy's upper house of parliament was arrested Tuesday by police on drug charges. While there is no suggestion he peddled his drugs inside the senate, it seems mild-mannered Orlando Ranaldi who managed the Senate's post office by day, was a Tony Montoya-like 'Italo-Albanian' gang-member cocaine-dealer by night. We are sure Monti will just let this 'blow' over, but from now on - any unusual white powder found in envelopes may not be sniffed at like it was in the past.