Archive - Sep 2012

The YouTube video depicting Mohammed is nothing more than the straw that broke the camel’s back. This kind of violent uprising against American power and interests in the region has been a long time in the making. It is not just the continuation of drone strikes which often kill civilians in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia and Afghanistan, either. Nor is it the American invasions and occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. Nor is it the United States and the West’s support for various deeply unpopular regimes such as the monarchies in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia (and formerly Iran). Nor is it that America has long favoured Israel over the Arab states, condemning, invading and fomenting revolution in Muslim nations for the pursuit of nuclear weapons while turning a blind eye to Israel’s nuclear weapons and its continued expansion into the West Bank.

"I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."--Isaac Newton

Kimmel 1 - the Borg 0

Valuations; stocks are cheap; money-on-the-sidelines; everyone's bearish; trend is your friend. We've all heard them and we've all played them but the following charts from Morgan Stanley will at least provide some nuance of sense for those stunned into silence by a market seeing its nominal price surging amid Bernanke blowing bubbles. The headline is - with real rates this low (and staying low for a few more years yet) current P/E multiples are extremely high and even on a long-run empirical basis, hope remains excessive at 22xShiller P/E versus an average 16x. Remember, a long-term investment is a short-term trade gone bad. But it seems for now that you buy because you'll always be able to sell it back higher to the next smarter dumber greater fool.

The implications of this are severe. However, the first question we have to ask is, “why now?”

What is it that makes Keynesians so insanely self destructive?  Is it their mindless blind faith in the power of government?  Their unfortunate ignorance of the mechanics of monetary stimulus?  Their pompous self-righteousness derived from years of intellectual idiocy?  Actually, I suspect all of these factors play a role.  Needless to say, many of them truly believe that the strategy of fiat injection is viable, even though years of application have proven absolutely fruitless.  Anyone with any sense would begin to question what kind of madness it takes to pursue or champion the mindset of the private Federal Reserve bank… Quantitative easing has shown itself to be impotent in the improvement of America’s economic situation.  Despite four years of free reign in central banking, employment remains dismal in the U.S., the housing market continues its freefall, and, our national debt swirls like a vortex at the heart of the Bermuda Triangle.  Despite this abject failure of Keynesian theory, the Federal Reserve is attempting once again to convince you, the happy-go-lucky American citizen, that somehow, this time around, everything will be “different”.

Given how many unconventional means have been deployed over the last weeks, I wouldn’t exclude some form of stimulus postpartum depression… With nothing in immediate sight, it’d better hold. Why does my heart feel so bad?

Liar, Liar, Fed on Fire!!! Why no one else has called this thinly vieled bailout out is truly beyond me. Well, the retail and consumer discretionary sector will feel the heat if everyone believes Bernanke and I end up being right... again!

The US is no longer the cleanest dirty shirt, or least syphilitic hooker in the whorehouse as we so responsibly noted previously. Year-to-date, the US Dow Jones Industrials 30 and Europe's EuroStoxx 50 - the two major blue-chip indices of the beleaguered regions - are now equally awesome at +11.35%. Of course, Gold and Silver are outperforming both of these (and the long-bond is unchanged) but nevertheless, even with EURUSD now up over 200 pips on the year, 2Y Spain yields are unchanged and 10Y Spain yields up 70bps. Context is king here, especially when we just keep anchoring to the latest 5 minute trend.

The market may no longer reflect any actual events or newsflow as it quietly levitates on what is a now certain avalanche of fiat dilution and wheelbarrow blue light specials, and it may thus be forgiven to ignore the dramatic developments abroad, but that does not mean you should. As country after country storms and burns down US embassies in futile searches for foodstamps and to express other pent up forms of soaring dissatisfaction with Pax Americana, follow the latest developments live courtesy of this Al Jazeera webcast with constant updates from around the world.

"Everything will collapse" is the consequence Gloom, Boom, & Doom's Marc Faber sees from the Fed's latest 'stimulus' (and the fallacy and misconception of how money-printing can help employment). In a wondrously clarifying interview on Bloomberg TV this morning, Faber explained why he was 'happy', since "the asset values of his holdings will go up" but as a responsible citizen he is worried because "the monetary policies of the US will destroy the world." It truly is class warfare under a veil of 'its good for you' as he notes: "the fallacy of monetary policy in the U.S. is to believe this money will go to the man on the street. It won't. It goes to the Mayfair economy of the well-to-do people and boosts asset prices of Warhols." Congratulations, Mr. Bernanke.

Did we say Arab Fall? We meant global fall. From the Star Tribune: "Thousands of Kashmiri Muslims protested Friday against an anti-Islam film, burning U.S. flags and calling President Barack Obama a "terrorist," while the top government cleric here reportedly demanded Americans leave the volatile Indian-controlled region immediately. In the southern Indian city of Chennai, protesters threw stones at the U.S. Consulate, shattering some windows and burning Obama in effigy. Police quickly cleared the area, arresting more than 100 protesters. U.S. Embassy officials in Delhi did not immediately comment." And elsewhere: "In Bangladesh, about 5,000 hardline Muslims marched in Dhaka's streets after Friday prayers, burning U.S. and Israeli flags and calling for the death of the filmmaker. Police prevented them from marching toward the U.S. Embassy several miles away." And elsewhere: "In Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, about 200 protesters chanted slogans and held up signs in a largely peaceful protest outside the heavily guarded U.S. Embassy in Jakarta. American diplomatic outposts increased security worldwide this week after clips of the film went viral online and sparked violent protests in the Middle East. About 20 protesters outside the U.S. Embassy in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, shouted "Allahu akbar!" and handed reporters a letter addressed to the U.S. ambassador expressing their anger over the movie and calling for greater respect for religions."

And Unemployment and Inequality Are Worse Than During the Recession

As the Eurogroup meets today and tomorrow, a funny thing is happening to Spanish bonds; they are selling off. Today is the worst day for the no sacrasanct 2Y Spanish bond yields in over 5 weeks and 10Y yields are not pretty at all. The 'sync' between risk-on around the world as Bernanke's bubble was re-blown yesterday seems to have drawn all that fast money flooding back to the S&P 500 leaving the forelorn Spaniards to ponder whether a bailout wouldn't be so bad. Just for one second, consider this - why did Bernanke go full retard yesterday? Data didn't exactly scream 'panic' mode. Perhaps he knows something about this weekend in Europe and wanted to get out in front of it? Certainly, the shift in Spanish bonds is idiosyncratic and extreme given all the 'Draghi-support' it has. For now though, it seems fast money is playing high-beta US equities, not high-beta European debt - but for how long?

Celebrations of QEnfinity are now officially sweeping the globe.