• Tim Knight from...
    11/21/2014 - 21:06
    As you can see by this view of the NQ, this massively bullish news has not, as of yet, represented any kind of sea-change in the markets. Before the day was even out (again, in some, not all markets...
  • lemetropole
    11/21/2014 - 21:16
        November 21 - Gold $1197.50 up $6.80 – Silver $16.40 up 26 cents Bill Cosby And GATA  

Archive - 2012

September 4th

Tyler Durden's picture

Is The Fed Responsible For The Great Financial Crisis?





"Recessions are a natural economic feature and their regular occurrence is healthy and indeed essential," is how Deutsche's Jim Reid introduces his investigation into post-Fed un-natural business cycles. Without them there is a serious danger of bubbles and the misallocation of resources as the further market participants detach themselves from the last downturn the more they tend to under-estimate risk. We, like Jim, would argue that the reason the Great Financial Crisis was so deep was due to the authorities continued refusal to let the business cycle take its natural course. The three 'super-cycles' between 1982 and 2007 were the exception rather than the norm, one where Central Banks and Governments had almost total flexibility over policy. Not only are we battling with the huge structural problems that the post-credit crisis world brings, we are fighting it without much policy flexibility and are indeed being forced into a reversal of stimulus at arguably exactly the wrong time. So it all adds up to a return to more normal length business cycles in our opinion - or perhaps even shorter.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Bernanke: "We Can't Really Prove It, But We Did The Right Thing Anyway"





It is amazing how big an effect a rambling, sleep-inducing speech by a chief central planner can have on financial markets in the short term. Nonetheless, the speech contained a few interesting passages which show us both how Bernanke thinks and that people to some extent often tend to hear whatever they want to hear. Bernanke noted that although he cannot prove it, econometricians employed by the Fed have constructed a plethora of models that show that 'LSAP's (large scale asset purchases, which is to say 'QE' or more colloquially, money printing) have helped the economy. In other words, although no-one actually knows what would have happened in the absence of the inflationary policy since we can't go back in time and try it out, the 'models' tell us it was the right thing to do. However, some indications would suggest that mal-investment is higher than ever - and accelerating - as the production structure ties up more consumer goods than it releases, an inherently unsustainable condition; additional expansion of money and credit will only serve to exacerbate the imbalance.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Financials Hide Analysts' "Earnings Recession" Expectations





We know top-line numbers were a disappointment in Q2; but the long-only AUM-defending commission-takers will remind you that 'stocks are cheap', '...valuation...', 'money on the the sidelines', and on the surface there was a 6.9% increase in EPS from Q2 2011 (growthy and as UBS notes - anything but anemic). But, like every good story, the truth is darker under the surface; looking at earnings growth (i.e., without the impact of shrinking share counts) excluding prior-period Financial sector writedowns, we see an outright earnings contraction. Further, consensus estimates are calling for EPS growth to go negative in 3Q12 - falling to $25.07 from $25.65 - which will make two quarters in a row of negative earnings growth - what we would consider an earnings recession.

 

dottjt's picture

The Zero Hedge Daily Round Up #119 - 04/09/2012





Today's ZH articles in audio summary! Also known as a podcast, or as the Ancient Egyptians once said: "What the hell is a podcast?" Everyday, 8pm New York Time.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Schrodinger Lisa Falcone... Or Why BusinessWeek May Want To Hire Better Fact Checkers





While we have long realized that under the 'New Normal' reality is widely in the eye of the beholder, especially if that beholder is an employee of some central planning authority, where good is good, bad is better, where "if things are serious, than you have to lie", and the result is that every 'fact' is both a wave and a particle at the same time regardless if observed with the wave-particle duality never collapsing (thus making a mockery of Schordinger's principles) little did we know that it also refers to the physical age of former 'prenup free' wives of one time hedge fund moguls, and now merely drugged, drunk drivers of (appropriately enough) GPS-impaired vehicles, which it appears can have a variance of 7 years in the span of 2 years... Read on.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Chuck Norris, Who Cuts Through A Hot Knife With Butter, Refuses To "Stand On The Sidelines For Socialism"





While the Clint Eastwood clip was a solid 8 out of 10 on the weirdness chart, it took the man who, as everyone knows, scares all charts away, and who singlehandedly burst the dot-com bubble, to put things in perspective to the evangelical crowd. Because, while Waldo may be hiding from Norris, Norris will no longer hide from what he terms "socialism or something much worse."

 

Bruce Krasting's picture

Tears for Two-Tiers





Mario Draghi is a few days away from creating the biggest two tiered market in history.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Your Taxpayer Dollars At Work: The Police Get An Upgrade For Close "Restless Native" Encounters





Just in case America's debt slaves, who as of today can congratulate themselves on a brand spanking new 16 handle in front of the 12 zeroes that frame their public debt obligation, did not have enough to celebrate, here is what happens when the local Police station also wants to celebrate something brand spanking new: in this case the new and improved SWAT-H vehicle. This is merely the latest and greatest entrant in the "gentrification"-vehicles that taxpayer dollars are buying in order to be more effectively suppressed as one after another pillar of this country's democracy is taken down. And, for your viewing pleasure, here are the highest crime rate regions that will likely get their 'fair' share of attention from this perriwinkle-blue camper-van of enforced docility.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Reality Bites: Fedex Cuts Outlook On Global Growth Concerns





...and so it begins - with a bellwether:

*FEDEX CUTS 1Q EPS FORECAST TO $1.37-$1.43, EST. $1.56

"Weakness in the global economy constrained revenue growth at FedEx Express more than expected in the earlier guidance."

FDX -4% AH and UPS -2.5% - both to lows of year! This is a not a good sign for GDP!

 

Tyler Durden's picture

It's Official: $16,015,769,788,215.80





 

Tyler Durden's picture

Silver Rips, Oil Slips, Equity Dips





Equities had their now-ubiquitous schizophrenia over 'bad-is-good'-macro data, BTFD - VWAP magic, and back-to-work-after-labor-day (volume better) but ended the day fractionally lower. Average trade size was low but volume was a little above average for the last few weeks as the chase to VWAP and then to green in S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) saw some notable blocks go through - which was accompanied by (or aided by) AAPL's stunning revelation that there will be an iPhone5 </sarc> driving it up 1.5% to fill last week's gap. Away from the equity silliness, there was a clear theme of USD strength (as AUD weakness led but EUR weakness from the European open dragged DXY into the green from Friday by today's close). Treasuries leaked 2-3bps higher in yield on the day. However, while Oil prices dropped (down 1% now from Friday's close), Silver and Gold bucked the stronger USD trend and pushed higher (with the former up 2% on the week and Gold testing up towards $1700). VIX jumped 0.85 vols back above 18% (highest close in a month) almost reaching 19% intraday. Risk assets generally synced well with stocks into the European close, then stocks lagged, overshot (supposedly on Gross' comments but we doubt that) and then reverted back down. Two words - palpable anxiety.

 

williambanzai7's picture

BaRaCK OBaMa'S HoPeLeSS DeBT BRoKe BaND...





NO FOOD OR BEVERAGES!!!

 

Tyler Durden's picture

What Happens Once Mario Draghi Unleashes The European Creosote Bank





In two days Mario Draghi may, although without Germany's blessing most likely will not, announce vague terms of how the ECB plans on monetizing hundreds of billions in short-term (sub-3 Year) bonds by Spain and Italy, which according to the ECB is not really monetization, and the only thing that is needed is for the two countries to admit they are insolvent, something which paradoxically will never happen as long as the ECB does everything in its power to spook markets away from fair clearing levels, and to keep the cashflow implied price at record divergence from the centrally-planned "valuation" determination. But let's assume Draghi does go ahead and one up Bernanke, announcing the next easing round a week ahead of the September FOMC meeting, as both central banks take the lunge into the latest lap of currency devaluation. What happens then? Well, as JPM's Michael Cembalest puts it quite succinctly, Draghi will unleash nothing short of the transformation of the ECB from the European Central Bank to the European Creosote Bank (see below for the reason). Numerically, this will mean that once the ECB is done monetizing another €1 trillion or so in bonds in the next year, the ECB will then hold just shy of a unimaginable 50% of the entire Eurozone GDP, taking the New Normal monetary world well beyond the rabbit hole and deep inside the twilight zone.

 

RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk US Market Wrap - 4th September 2012





 

Tyler Durden's picture

Are Energy Prices 'Pegged' To Hard Money?





Energy prices are soaring (though down a little this week). However, a strange thing has occurred since the lows in 2009 and the lows in 2011 - both indicative of coordinated and massive central-banking largesse - Oil prices in hard-money have been extremely range-bound. In fact, the price of Oil in Gold and Silver has been rather coincidentally stable over this period - we leave it to the reader to consider the global energy-producing nations' implications of a hard-money 'peg' for energy prices - as Central Banks attempt to inflate their way out of trouble.

 
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