Archive - Jan 4, 2013

It would appear that even the venerable Art Cashin had to rub his eyes in incredulity at the recircling of the idea of the Treasury minting a "Trillion Dollar Platinum Coin" to solve the debt-ceiling 'problem'. His brief discussion on the idea is summed up perfectly in his final six words "anybody got an ebook on alchemy?"

Equities have only one direction (so far) since the payrolls report - leaking higher in general up around 3 points. On the other hand, Treasuries are also bid (though considerably more volatile - having chopped in a 4-5bps range since NFP). USD weakness and precious metal strength are a little more clear-cut but AAPL is fading.

A surprisingly uneventful report, as BLS reports that 155,000 Jobs were added in December, right on top of the 156,000 expected, and in line with the number needed to keep up with the growth in the population, or at least the Old Normal growth. The unemployment rate was 7.8%, vs the 7.7% expected: who else is surprised that the rate is now rising with Obama reelected and when a lower unemployment rate means an earlier end to QE4EVA? The November unemployment rate was revised from 7.7% to 7.8%, just so headlines can proclaim the rate was unchanged, even though it was fractions away from a 7.9% print, compared to November initial 7.7%. According to the Household survey a materially less, or 28,000 jobs were added even as the number of unemployed rose by 164K. Average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.3% in December from November, compared to the 0.2% expected. The confusion continues as the BLS reports retail jobs were mysteriously down by 19,000 even as every retailer announced it was hiring the kitchen sink, while manufacturing jobs supposedly rose by 25,000 while the ADP report reported 6 months of reductions in a row. Construction jobs increased by 30,000. The Underemployment rate, U-6, remains steady at 14.5%. ADP, which will certainly be revised lower now, remains a farce.

The median Bloomberg expectation for NFP is 153k, Citi is at 140k; the central tendency of the forecasts is about 125-185k. Now that the Minutes are out and have raised market fears that the fed will pull back from ease earlier than anticipated, investors are worried about a repeat of 1994, when a surprise Fed tightening after a long period of easy money (by standards of those days) devastated fixed income markets. Then 10yr Treasury yields rose 170bps over a two month period. In that light, you have to respect bond market skittishness. However, you have to respect the market response. And if payrolls come anywhere near close to a 200k handle we will very likely see further a further equity and fixed income sell off. So there is the possibility that we will have a much more exciting morning after payrolls than anyone had anticipated.

• Just like last year: A Postholiday Letdown for Retailers (WSJ)
• Obama Fights Republicans on Debt as Investors Seek Growth (BBG)
• Housing a Sweet Spot for U.S. Economy as Recovery Expands (BBG)
• House chooses Boehner as speaker again despite dissent (Reuters)
• Backlash pushes Republicans to seek cuts (FT)
• Jobs Lost Hit 5 Million With Rigged Currencies (BBG)
• Chavez still has "severe" respiratory problem (Reuters)
• Paris promises flurry of economic reforms  (FT)
• Investors Sour on Pro Stock Pickers (WSJ)
• Abe moves to ease South Korea tensions (FT)
• Wildfires Hit Australia Amid Worst Heatwave in Decade (BBG)
• Monti attacks ‘extremist’ rivals (FT)

US dollar gains have been extended for the third session. The euro has been sold down to almost $.1.30 after testing $1.33 on Wed. More stale longs may be forced out on a break of $1.2985, which corresponds to a 50% retracement of the advance from the mid-Nov low near $1.2660 and the 50-day moving average. Sterling's decline is even more dramatic. It has come off hard since setting a 17-month high on Wed near $1.6380. It has now been pushed below $1.6040, which the 61.8% retracement of its rally from mid-Nov low near $1.5830. Sterling has also slipped below the 50 and 100-day moving averages for the first time in seven weeks.