Archive - Jan 6, 2013
WeaLTHY INDiaN PHD MiNTS GoLD SHiRT To MaKe A PoiNT...
Submitted by williambanzai7 on 01/06/2013 22:06 -0500Gold is clothing, not money...
Guest Post: On The Economic Calculation Of "Fair Share"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2013 21:13 -0500
When one speaks of a concept it is important that it is properly qualified so as to be correctly understood. Failure to accomplish that makes impossible for either the problem to be identified or a desired solution to be found. Perhaps this is why politicians have a tendency to speak of ill-defined and oft muddled concepts, like “social justice,” “a living wage” or “fair share.” These concepts are impossible to define in a way consistent with how they are represented, since their proponents represent them as definite, rather than abstract matters. Politicians and demagogues alike may debate these issues for as long or as short as they may desire, but whatever level they agree on is sure to be arbitrary, save for the only objective conclusion that such concepts are impossible to quantify. It follows that the “fair share” doctrine is an indefinable political tool intended to be used as needed, when needed, by office seekers. It is not a policy to be sought in order to bring equality under the law or economic prosperity, as it is a concept that runs against the principle of private property.
U.S. Government Using Terrorism Against the American People
Submitted by George Washington on 01/06/2013 20:39 -0500Violence and Threats Being Used to Intimidate and Coerce the American Public for Political Purposes
"The Magic Of Compounding" - The Impact Of 1% Change In Rates On Total 2022 US Debt
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2013 20:21 -0500
They say "be careful what you wish for", and they are right. Because, in the neverending story of the American "recovery" which, sadly, never comes (although in its place we keep getting now semiannual iterations of Quantitative Easing), the one recurring theme we hear over and over and over is to wait for the great rotation out of bonds and into stocks. Well, fine. Let it come. The question is what then and what happens to the US economy when rates do, finally and so overdue (for all those sellside analysts and media who have been a broken record on the topic for the past 3 years), go up. To answer just that question, which in a country that is currently at 103% debt/GDP and which will be at 109% by the end of 2013, we have decided to ignore the CBO's farcical models and come up with our own... To answer just that question, which in a country that is currently at 103% debt/GDP and which will be at 109% by the end of 2013, we have decided to ignore the CBO's farcical models and come up with our own. The bottom line: going from just 2% to 3% interest, will result in total 2022 debt rising from $31.4 trillion to $34.1 trillion; while jumping from 2% to just the long term historical average of 5%, would push total 2022 debt to increase by a whopping $9 trillion over the 2% interest rate base case to over $40 trillion in total debt!
What Happened The Last Four Times That US Macroeconomic 'Surprises' Hit A Three-Month Low?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2013 19:09 -0500
The last week or two has seen Citi's economic 'surprise' indicator (ECO) take a decided turn for the worse. At Friday's close, the index that tracks not just absolute performance of the major macro prints but their relative performance to expectations, had hit a three-month low. Since the top in the S&P 500 in late 2007, the 3-month rate-of-change has shifted significantly negative four times - and each of these times has been followed by a significant downturn (or change of trend) in the S&P 500. As of Friday's close, the ECO index's rate-of-change shifted negative (its most negative in 5 months) and has signaled a quite intriguingly divergent lower high (from Q4 2011' previous peak) compared to the S&P 500's higher high. Is the short-term drop in ECO due to 'cliff' indecision? Or will earnings season be the market's catalyst to realize the changing macro landscape?
Guest Post: Inflation Hits Coffee As Brewers Secretly Swap Robusta For Arabica
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2013 18:24 -0500Reuters is reporting that many of America’s major brands have been quietly tweaking their coffee blends. While most coffee companies consider their blends trade secrets, and are loath to disclose exactly what goes into them, both circumstantial and direct evidence suggests they’re now substituting lower-grade Robusta beans for some of their pricier Arabica, and degrading the quality of our coffee. Research out of agricultural bank Rabobank confirms that demand for Arabica beans among coffee buyers “has fallen 27% year-to-date, while Robusta [demand] is 25% higher.” This seems to confirm a widespread alteration of the bean mix. Why the switcheroo? Prepare to not be shocked. The answer is: price.
Gold: It's For More Than Just Wealth Preservation
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2013 17:27 -0500Presented with little comment, aside to note that 32-year-old Indian Datta Phuge, thought this $25,000 solid gold shirt would be just right to attract female attention: "I know I am not the best looking man in the world but surely no woman could fail to be dazzled by this shirt?" So much for the yellow metal being a barbarous relic.
Corruption At “Decontaminating” Radioactive Towns In Japan
Submitted by testosteronepit on 01/06/2013 16:09 -0500Big Bucks: the initial step alone costs ¥650 billion
Guest Post: Houston, We've Got A (US) Problem
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2013 16:00 -0500
2013's biggest Grey Swan might be not China's slowdown or Euro area's continued debt crisis (although both are pretty much still on the books, although the former is less likely than the latter). It might not even be the Japanese economic implosion (albeit Japan is sick beyond any repair)... oh, no... the real Grey Swan of 2013 might be the markets starting to take a closer look at the US. This might sound bizarre during the weekend following Friday, when the VIX index collapsed 39.1% - more than in any other trading day in its history, and when the US markets have ended the first week of the year with total gains almost equivalent to what some are projecting for the entire 2013... and yet... as some would say: "Houston, we've got a problem!" The problem is best illustrated in the following three sets of chart, all comparing US fiscal performance to the peers.
Is This What The New "Swiss Bank Account" Looks Like?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2013 14:33 -0500There was a time when everyone (who was anyone) wanted a Swiss bank account, as much as an offshore cash parking vehicle as for its hushed prestige, whispered to a select few during Hamptons' cocktail parties. Those days are now gone, with the last remaining anonymous offshore private banking bastion left being Singapore, if even that. So in a world in which country after country is scrambling to hike income (and soon financial wealth and asset) taxes on the superrich, is this, paradoxically, what the new "Swiss bank account" is going to look like? And with the Obelix case study officially in the books, who will be the next to take advantage of the former KGB spy's taxation generosity?
Fairness Doctrine Backfires: After Depardieu Backlash, French FinMin Says Superrich Tax "Plan B" Would Be Temporary
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2013 14:20 -0500
Back in July, when news of what we dubbed the French "Fairness Doctrine" first emerged, i.e., the new socialist government's intent to tax the evil millionaires at a 75% tax rate, we had two observations: i) that "we are rotating our secular long thesis away from Belgian caterers and into tax offshoring advisors, now that nobody in the 1% will pay any taxes ever again" and, somewhat contradicting the above, ii) that "The good news is that with the entire world set to adopt 100%+ taxes on "wealthy" individuals as defined arbitrarily by Ph.Ds, there will be no place to hide." Well, the US promptly followed France into a lite-version of the Fairness Doctrine, which proved us half right, yet one place that has refused to increase its tax rate for the poor or rich, keeping it at the flat 13% for individuals is Russia, which explains why following last week's news that Russia had granted famous French expat millionaire Gerard Depardieu citizenship, the actor best known as Obelix and Rasputin, eagerly rushed to accept his new red passport in Sochi following a bearhug from none other than Vladimir Putin.
Guest Post: The HFT-Induced Extinction Of Retail Investors
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2013 13:49 -0500
The term "invasive species" has been used to describe new types of plants or animals that have been introduced to a new area, whereupon they change the local biosystem. The sudden appearance of new lifeforms in an environment can cause rapid losses in some of the species present prior to this appearance. On occasion, however, the new players can overwhelm the stabilizing factors in the system, which undergoes dramatic changes, eventually stabilizing in a new configuration that is highly detrimental to many of the original players in the system. Which brings me to today's invasive species. Many of the characteristics of successful invasive species are shared by HFT algorithms. This is driving the retail investor to extinction, through the erosion in their margins brought about by HFT. In the presence of HFT, the unsophisticated investor pays a higher price on the buy and receives a lower price on the sell than would be the case otherwise. The professional traders manage to maintain their margins--the losses of the unsophisticated are the profits of the algos.
Abenomics: Japan's Thermidor
Submitted by Marc To Market on 01/06/2013 13:26 -0500
The ascent of the Democratic Party of Japan marked the end of Japan's one-party state, dominated by the Liberal Democratic Party since the 1955. However, the DPJ was unable to address the challenges Japan faced, was internally unstable, as illustrated by the revolving door in the prime minister's office, and spent scarce political clout to support a controversial retail sales tax increase.
The LDP has returned to power. Its ascent is a victory for the old elite. Reports suggest that half of the cabinet positions were given to members of parliament who had inherited their Diet seats from their families. The LDP's program, or Abenomics as it has been dubbed, seeks to strengthen the domestic economy and enhance Japan's ability to project its power internationally.
On The Dole And Watching The Pole: The New Normal EBT-Card User
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2013 12:43 -0500
Welfare recipients took out cash at bars, liquor stores, X-rated video shops, hookah parlors and even strip club - where they presumably spent their taxpayer money on lap dances rather than diapers, a NY Post investigation found. From Bronx strip clubs to gay dive bars in the East Village, US taxpayer-sponsored EBT cards have been inserted into ATMs and food stamp 'cash' has presumably been used to feed another need. The Post found dozens of pubs, nightclubs and tobacco shops where welfare dough was dispensed - and presumably spent. We should not worry too much though as Hilda Solis put us straight on how many millions of jobs these EBT-card fund recipients are creating and while we pass no judgment on those receiving and using the funds in whatever they see most fit, Cato's Michael Tanner summed it quite succinctly: "This is morally scandalous, I have nothing against strip clubs, but that’s not what benefits are for. I don’t blame [recipients]. If you are poor, it’s a crummy life and you want to have a drink or see a naked woman. I blame the people who are in charge of this." 32oz sodas made us gulp; rare steak tough to swallow; but take away the strippers and liquor - anarchy.
4th Quarter Earnings Will be an Unmitigated Disaster
Submitted by EconMatters on 01/06/2013 11:40 -0500Apart from the slight uptick from the bottom in the housing market, the rest of the economy is just not robust enough to produce earning`s growth.








