Archive - Oct 12, 2013

Measurements taken at 39 sporting venues earmarked to stage the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games have elevated levels of radioactivity according to a citizen's group. The South China Morning Post reports that the group "found caesium-137 at almost every place [they] carried out tests, and there was no caesium here before the accident at Fukushima." Tests were made at the Olympic Village, Media Center, and the highest radiation reading, 0.484 microsieverts per hour, was detected in undergrowth close to Yumenoshima Stadium - significantly higher than the level of 0.23 microsieverts per hour set by the government as the standard for decontamination work going on in the exclusion zone around the nuclear plant. In response to a request, a spokesman for Tokyo 2020 insisted: "Radiation levels in the air and water of Tokyo are safe." So all good then...

We now appear to be close to the day of reckoning that likely determines what the coming weeks/months hold.

• Do we step back from the brink, see our politicians reach an agreement and carry on? Although to be fair, in 2011 the break below supports that led to accelerated losses in the equity markets actually took place once an agreement was reached.
• Do we break lower thereby causing the negative feedback loop/concerns that feed back into the economy, kill any possibility of tapering and sees the Fed re-establish its dovish credentials (Like 1998 and 2011)
• Do bond yields push higher after an agreement thereby increasing concerns about a negative feedback loop into the economy, housing, emerging markets, Europe (Like 2011) and ultimately the equity market?

Time will tell us the answers to the above questions, but whatever happens, Citi notes it looks like the price action in the near future is at pivotal levels that need to be watched closely.

In an interesting twist of irony, one of the Congressman most instrumental in the destruction of civil liberties in these United States due to his authorship of the Patriot Act, Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Wisc.), is now leading the charge to reign in NSA abuses. His disgust with the NSA became clear back in early June when he wrote an impassioned letter to Attorney General Eric Holder criticizing the illegal NSA activity happening behind the scenes. The key point here is that Mr. Sensenbrenner strongly believes that these guys are misinterpreting the legislation he wrote to justify everything they are doing. As such, he and others are proposing legislation to make it crystal clear what is and what is not appropriate surveillance. Not only that, he is also calling for the prosecution of James Clapper the current Director of National Intelligence, who perjured himself in front of Congress earlier this year.

Normally Treasury Bills are not something discussed around the dinner table or hotly debated on the business news channels. As UBS notes, the fact that the Tbill market has become the focus of attention is an ominous sign, and indicates that the stalemate over the debt ceiling could have profound effects. While TED-Spreads, and financial CDS were the key indicators in 2008, now we must watch money fund flows, and Tbill forwards. In a sense, the Tbill market is the proverbial canary in a coal mine for the US financial system. The canary is not yet back in good health.

The rhetoric from today's political maneuvering is eerily reminiscent of the rhetoric just a week ago and absolutely in now way represents the 'progress' than an impatient to BTFATH equity market appears confident about. As AP reports, Harry Reid seemed to arrogantly explain "we haven't done anything yet" by way of compromise (as his party rejected the compromise deal on the basis of the spending and taxes issues; and the Republicans came out swinging. Boehner (behind closed doors) exclaimed "The Senate needs to hold tough; the President isn't negotiating with us;" and tea-party caucus member Fleming blasted, "It's very clear to us he does not now, and never had, any intentions of negotiating," and warned, there was "definitely a chance that we're going to go past the deadline."

We are now into a second week of a partial Federal Government shut-down, which is causing considerable concern, centred on the Government’s ability to finance its debt and pay interest without a budget agreed for the new fiscal year. Should this continue into next week and beyond, the Fed will have to enter damage-limitation mode if the Treasury cannot issue any more bonds because of the separate problem of the debt ceiling. With gold at an extreme low in valuation terms, current events, whichever way they go, seem unlikely to drive it much lower. A wise man perhaps should copy the Asians, who know a thing or two about paper currencies, and are buying gold in ever-increasing quantities.

In the past five years it has become apparent that America can survive a near-fatal financial system collapse, an economy teetering on the edge and kept ticking only thanks to the Fed's now perpetual QE, a collapsing standard of living for everyone but the wealthiest 0.1%, declining wages, zero interest rates, surging food, energy, rent, tuition and welfare costs, and pretty much everything else, as long as the welfare state keeps humming along. Any be welfare state we mostly mean providing the daily bread to the nearly 50 million Americans living in poverty and surviving only thanks to the only thing to have exploded to epic record highs under Obama (in addition to the Fed's balance sheet of course): foodstamp usage. However, the true stability of the US may be tested very soon following reports that due to a "possible computer glitch" the Electronic Benefits Transfer System, aka EBT, ala Foodstamps, is offline. Cue mass panic among the best-weaponized population in the world. Naturally, this latest fiasco involving a country that has grown accustomed to sucking on the government's teat was immediately blamed on a "glitch" - just like everything else that is slowly but surely breaking in the New Normal.

Over four years ago when we discussed the high frequency predator traders feasting on the signals of others, few believed it possible (and fewer still comprehended it). Today there is another potential disruptor in US equity market microstructure, the transformation of noise to signal from the overwhelming drivel of a Twitter stream. Macro signals (the hashcrash in April when AP's account was hacked and this week's Israeli military tweet misunderstanding) have had dramatic effects on the market but individual stock trading success remains elusive. “You have to be happy with a lot of noise in your data,” one advocate notes, but, as the FT notes, a recent PhD study concluded, "The proponents of this idea really do exaggerate it... I’m not saying there’s nothing here, but I’m not saying you can print money either."

We commend Senator Schumer for being the first Senator to openly step up and admit that the worst case scenario in the whole Congressional 3D IMAX farce is not about keeping the economy afloat, is not about preserving jobs, but merely keeping the stock market at or near its all time highs:

• Schumer Says He Worries About Monday Stock Drop on Default Risk. "This is playing with fire," Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., tells reporters. Says he worried whether “the stock market will go down”

For those confused, Schumer has merely admitted what the vast majority of the Senate, where two thirds are millionaires, and nearly half the House, think: don't you dare let the manipulated precious, which at last check was just 1% below its all time Fed-balance sheet derived highs, drop.

Government spending has long been believed to have a multiplier effect in the economy.  However, as the chart above shows, the reality is quite shocking.  Each dollar in debt only increased GDP by roughly $0.15.   In other words each $1 in government spending actually has a negative multiplier effect of 85% in the real economy.  The leaders in Washington need to start focusing on the real issues at hand.  While we toss around $100 billion here and there, as if it is left pocket change, the reality is that the rising debt levels will continue to drag on economic growth going forward. Of course, the continued shenanigans in Washington, inept leadership and lack of fiscal responsibility is why there is a continuing increase in the number of individuals who perceive the need for a third political party. Change was promised.  Change is wanted.  Change will happen.  Unfortunately, history shows that REAL change, politically and otherwise, has only occurred under the worst possible conditions.

Don't Drone Me Bro!

BREAKING: Senate rejects Democratic plan to extend debt ceiling through next year.

— The Associated Press (@AP) October 12, 2013

Hong Kong's richest are busy offloading local assets which institutions are happy to buy. It's exhibit A why institutional money often represents dumb money. 

The main reason for last week's massive market surge on nothing but hope, if no actual deal, is due to the market's now habituated response that no matter what happens in Congress, there will always be a last minute deal. After all this was the pattern with the 2011 government shutdown and debt ceiling deal, and the 2012 fiscal cliff solution: surely enough points to make a pattern. However, as Goldman's Alec Phillips points out, 2013 may be different: "First, Congress allowed sequestration to take effect on March 1, despite the expectation among many observers earlier in the year that the cuts would be pushed off in light of the predicted the negative practical and economic effects that might result. Then, two weeks ago, Congress allowed the government to shut down. For the second time this year, the expectation of a last-minute deal turned out to be incorrect."

After a two-day, five hundred point Dow Jones rally on nothing but hope that just because politicians are talking, all shall be well, it was the weekend's turn, when the market is conveniently closed, for true Congressional colors to emerge. Sure enough, moments ago Boehner told GOP lawmakers that Obama has "rejected our deal", and that talks with the president have hit an impasse. The WSJ, whose recent poll in conjunction with NBC found Republican approval rating at an all time low (because if the debt ceiling slams shut, the machinery that funds both the "wealth effect" for the 0.01% and the 60 million on foodstamps and disability will cease: or in other words a bust for the ultra wealthy and poor, if not quite so bad for what's left of the middle class) reports that his comments, in a closed-door meeting with House Republicans, put renewed focus on a plan being developed by Senate Republicans to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and fully reopen the government. As we speculated, Obama, smelling blood, has decided to shut down the GOP on all their demands: "On Saturday, a House GOP aide said Mr. Obama had essentially rejected everything offered by House Republican leaders in their proposal." Which is hardly a negotiation. The question is will the GOP, having pushed the country so far, decide to back off now, and let Obama take all the spoils?