Archive - Oct 31, 2013

Al Jazeera America has done some great work in obtaining the official NSA talking points via a Freedom of Information Act request. As might be expected, the agency tells its people to use the attacks on September 11, 2001 to manipulate public opinion into accepting unacceptable levels of surveillance.  One of the highlights, actually lowlights, of the document is what the NSA refers to as a “soundbite that resonates.” Here it is: "I much prefer to be here today explaining these programs, than explaining another 9/11 event that we were not able to prevent."

Are genetically modified foods, better known as GMOs, safe to eat? Although there is no definitive answer to this question yet, American consumers eat genetically engineered foods all the time. However, the maze of labeling laws makes choosing whether or not they want to eat them a totally different story.

If you believe that there is high inflation in the United States, you are just imagining things.  That is the message that the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve would have us to believe. Of course anyone that shops for groceries or that pays bills regularly knows what a load of nonsense the official inflation rate is.  The U.S. government has changed the way that inflation is calculated numerous times since 1978, and each time it has been changed the goal has been to make inflation appear to be even lower. But if the mainstream news actually reported 'the real' number, everyone would be screaming and yelling about getting inflation under control.  Instead, the super low number that gets put out to the public makes it look like the Federal Reserve has plenty of room to do even more reckless money printing.  It is a giant scam, but most Americans are falling for it.

"The employment situation in America is in a state of serious dysfunction," is how Elliott Management's Paul Singer begins his discussion of the problems (that existed before 2008) that are getting worse... "A related problem in America is benefits policies that encourage dependency. This is insidious and life-draining, because a balance must be struck between helping those truly in need and providing harmful incentives for able-bodied people not to work. If the government makes it less economically attractive to work than to receive a check, the predictable result will be an increase in handouts and a drain on the productive sectors of the economy."

Gold had a good run for twelve years but has fallen by as much as 20% this year alone. Is that set to continue?

Over a year ago we discussed the "next Industrial Revolution" and where it might appear from. 3D printers were envisioned among Goldman's top disruptive themes earlier this year and as UBS notes, 3D printing – or additive manufacturing – has been catching investors’ imaginations in recent months. Some commentators have suggested the technology has the potential to literally transform the world economy and dismantle global supply chains; while UBS points out that, others have suggested the technology is hyped and has little promise beyond a few niche product areas in manufacturing. The truth, Andrew Cates believes, probably lies somewhere in between but he is nevertheless more sympathetic to those who champion the technology’s disruptive – even revolutionary - qualities.

• How much does QE contribute to the growing inequality of wealth in this country and what are the risks this creates?
• How much systemic risk does the Fed create by becoming what Warren Buffett termed “the greatest hedge fund in history”?
• How might the Fed’s expanded balance sheet and its failure to even begin to “normalize” monetary policy four years into the recovery limit its flexibility to deal with the next recession or crisis?

It’s hard to maintain monopoly status in a free market when you have to deal with all that competition and whatnot. Between other companies’ low prices and new, updated products entering the market each day, it’s almost like Rich Uncle Pennybags is a thing of the past. But fret not! The politicians of the world would like to offer anyone dead set on controlling an entire industry the chance to shine. So come one, come all — government agencies, cronies, and all their friends — as we present the five best ways to create a monopoly and to ensure you never have to compete again.

Presumably you've already made plans for surviving a zombie apocalypse. You have detailed escape routes, stockpiled weapons made for killing zombies, stores of food... or at least plans for these things. But have you thought through the important economic factors that might make the difference between surviving and losing your brain to one of the walking dead? If uncertainty about how market prices and currency changes might affect your odds in a zombie-dominated society has been keeping you up at night, fear not. In this video, Prof. Anthony Davies provides a crash course in how a zombie apocalypse is likely to affect the economy. Hint: sell your designer shoes now while you can. And buy bullets.

The spat between the US and Germany is getting worse by the minute. Following yesterday's meaningless escalation by the Treasury accusing, via official pathways, Germany of being the main culprit for Europe's lack of recovery (and Germany's subsequent retaliation), it is Germany's turn now to refocus public attention on Big Brother's spying pathology when a union representing Germany's journalists advised its members earlier today to stop using Google and Yahoo because of the latest report implicating the NSA in eavesdropping on Google and Yahoo.

Power, or perceived power, is a viciously addictive narcotic. It doesn't matter what political or philosophical background a person hails from, very few have the self discipline or the self awareness necessary to relinquish the trappings of power once they have tasted it. This truth applies to conservatives as much as it applies to liberals. The bottom line is, whether Obamacare is successfully implemented or not, whether the debt ceiling is raised again or not, whether the Left passes every agenda on its list or not, our system is broken and it is going to collapse. There is no way around it. More debt and more fiat printing means stagflationary collapse. Default and austerity means stagflationary collapse. If liberals want to place blame for this conundrum, then they should focus on the people who actually set the original fire – international and central bankers. Constitutional conservatives have been the only people attempting to inform the American public of the facts surrounding our current fiscal crisis.

In the 1977 Eagles song, Hotel California, a luxury hotel appears inviting and offers a tired traveller comforting relief from his journey. It turns out to be something of a nightmare, however, and he finds that "you can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave". BNP's Paul Mortimer-Lee asks "does that sound a little bit like QE and the Fed?" The FOMC signalled its intention to check out of QE at its June meeting, but by September, it found it could not leave. Is that not just like QE1 and QE2, the scheduled ends of which had to be reversed within relatively short periods? The question now is whether or not we should expect repeated market obstacles to a QE3 exit. Why? Because, as we have noted numerous times, flows matter.

When 325lb WWE/WWF Professional Wrestler "Kane" speaks, one tends to listen and so when Glenn Thomas Jacobs addresses the reality of the Fed and the actions of the Jekyll-Island-created "entity" the world should perhaps pay attention. When an admittedly eloquent giant of mass media explains discusses "our enemy the Fed," and the tasks facing Americans, we hope (for 2 brief minutes) the message gets past the Miley Cyrus headlines...

Good news (Chicago PMI) was very bad news and sent stocks into freefall early on. Hedgers then appeared to lift their protection (sending VIX lower) and igniting a surge back to the highs in stocks, tagging the stops, and then stocks slumped to end October (among the best month in the year for most indices) with a 2-day losing streak (the first in over 3 weeks) but EU stocks outperformed. Stocks had been ignoring the "taper-on" trends in Bonds (7Y TSY +5bps on week), USD (+1.3% on week), and precious metals (-2% on the week), but into the close, volume picked up and equities tumbled. Silver and Gold were monkey-hammered lower (ending Oct +1% and-0.3% respectively). FX markets saw USD bid aggressively (though CAD strengthened against the greenback). Credit remains considerably less enthusiastic than stocks. An ugly close for stocks... (blamed on Israel for now)

...BTFATH is more popular than BTFD.