Archive - Oct 2013

UPDATE: *CBOE: CFE WILL OPEN THE VX FUTURE PRODUCT AT 8:10 AM CT

It would appear that the overnight melt-up exuberance of an optimistic investing public has been stymied as the exchanges break once again. Following record volume levels on VIX options this week, we are told this morning by CBOE:

• *CBOE: CFE EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL ISSUES
• *CBOE: CFE EXPECTING DELAYED OPENING FOR THE VX
• *CBOE:CFE WILL BUST ERRANT VX, VXT TRADES FROM 7:00-7:12:01 CT

SSDD... Let's hope Jack Lew has something positive to say and doesn't "surprise" an unhedged market.

Nearly exactly five years after Hank Paulson appeared before Congress dangling a 3 page term sheet ultimatum warning it was his way or the apocalypse, it is time for the sequel. Since we all love the smell of a good Mutually Assured Destruction spectacle in the morning. Which is why we can't wait for Treasury Secretary Jack Lew's presentation before the Senate Finance Committee discussing the Debt Limit, in which he will rain fire and brimstone on anyone who suggests that the Treasury can enter the X-Date without a debt ceiling deal in place, and will most certainly seek to crucify anyone who points out the logical, namely that payments can be prioritized and interest expense is a fraction the revenue the Treasury brings in, and that the end of the world would be nigh should the US actually be forced to live within its means.

While there is hope that DC will engage in its favorite, can-kicking activity any minute and if not resolve then at least push back the funding and debt ceiling stalemate by a few weeks, the reality is that without a deal in seven days, there may be no cash to pay down maturing Bills starting with the October 17 issue whose yield soared to nearly 50 bps yesterday. The reason for the capitulation as was revealed yesterday, is that various money market funds such as Fidelity's have been selling all paper around the X-Date. This morning the contagion surrounding the use of Bills as collateral has crossed the Pacific, following news that the "Hong Kong’s futures and options market operator will require traders to put up more collateral when using some Treasury bills to back their positions, citing concern that the U.S. is at risk of a default." In other words, as we forecast on Monday, the debt-ceiling confusion in cash-land has now openly engulfed the repo market, which only makes the states of a debt deal that much higher. Because if the repo, $2.5 trillion money market, and subsequently, the entire $80 or so trillion custodian market freeze up, what happens next will make Lehman seem like a quiet walk in the park.

• The ice breaks; fiscal talks set (The Hill); Ryan steps up to shape a deal (The Hill), as predicted here yesterday
• Republicans consider short-term U.S. debt ceiling increase (Reuters)
• Shutdown Standoff Shows Signs of a Thaw (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Clients in Cash as Schwab’s Options Hedge Default (BBG)
• Mitch McConnell, Senate GOP search for way out (Politico)
• Meredith Whitney Winds Down Brokerage Unit After Setting Up Fund (BBG)
• Washington Budget Chaos Keeps Fed Rates Low for Longer (BBG)
• Chinese Premier Outlines US Debt Concerns (FT)
• Saudis brace for 'nightmare' of U.S.-Iran rapprochement (Reuters)
• Obama Urges Action on Yellen’s Fed Nomination (Reuters)
• Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zidan Freed After Kidnap (WSJ)

As reported previously, the latest meme surrounding the D.C. impasse is that Obama is suddenly willing to compromise on a short-term, supposedly six-week funding and debt ceiling extension, on the verge of his latest talks with republicans at the White House scheduled for this morning, as previously floated by the GOP. Throw some additional headlines such as "Ryan steps up to shape a deal" (in line with what we predicted yesterday) and "The ice breaks; fiscal talks set", by The Hill, and "GOP quietly backing away from Obamacare" from Politico, and one can see why futures are in breakneck soaring mode this morning, driven as usual by the two main JPY cross (USD and AUD), the first of which is less than 100 pips now away from being Stolpered out.  So will a compromise deal finally emerge 7 days ahead of the first X-Date, or will a last minute snag once again derail the (non)-negotiations? We will know quite soon.

The study is called the Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies and it tested 166,000 people aged 16 to 65 in more than 20 countries.  It found that in math, reading and problem solving, American adults scored below the international average. We can’t say this is surprising, after all, the public allowed the big banks that destroyed the economy to gift themselves trillions in the aftermath of the financial crisis with barely a peep in response. You don’t have to be a problem solving genius to figure that one out.

With the FBI shutdown of the underground online drug marketplace Silk Road this week, IBTimes Lisa Mahapatra points out that its customers will have to shop elsewhere for their fix. However, unfortunately for some, this will mean paying up for their favorite brand of pharmaceutical. As the following infographic shows, the prices of marijuana and cocaine vary significantly across regions with the former more expensive on Silk Road and the latter cheaper.

"...The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value.

We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros.

The sooner the better."

- Ron Paul, 2006

Quick: which BRIC nation has the highest consumer loan default rate?

If you said China, India or Russia, you are wrong. Actually, if you said China you are probably right, but since absolutely all economic "data" in China is worthless, manipulated propaganda, only a retrospective post-mortem after the Chinese credit, housing, commodity, consumption bubbles have all burst will we know the answer. So excluding China, which country's consumers after a multi-year shopping spree funded entirely on credit, are suddenly suffering the epic hangover of soaring non-performing loans as they suddenly find themselves unable to even pay the interest on the debt? Just ask former billionaire Eike Batista whose OGX oil corporation is days away from filing bankruptcy. The answer, with 5.6% of all loans in default, above Russia, South Africa, Mexico, Turkey and India, is Brazil.

Even as Washington stares into a fiscal abyss of its own construction, there is one bright spot: the ongoing global popularity of the $100 bill. The U.S. Treasury/Federal Reserve launched their latest version of the venerable C-Note just this week, printing $350 billion worth over the last 12 months to meet anticipated robust worldwide demand. Given that $100 bills last about 15 years in circulation, ConvergEx's Nick Colas notes that these record amounts seem to indicate very strong worldwide demand for hard currency rather just replacing old stock. In the US, by contrast, the ‘Cashless economy’ is coming hard and fast.

Cannot even begin to say it all...

At the time of publication, the United States government is shut down. That does not mean the gears of the state have come to a thankful halt. Over three-quarters of Washington’s global hegemony remains fully functional. Tax dollars are still being redistributed. Wars continue to be waged. The public at large is going about its day unbothered by the furlough of tens of thousands of government employees. For once, apathy has paid off. The only poor souls bemoaning the shutdown are the ones sitting at home. The United States government is not going away anytime soon. The same government workers kicked out of their day-job will go crawling back once given the green light. Being called the equivalent of worthless will be of no consideration. The paycheck is paramount to their dignity. They have our sympathy, but there would be more to share if the state didn’t thrive off the fat of the rubes.

"If the politicians lead us into a 'prioritization of payments' situation for Treasury Secretary Lew or an actual missed payment, there is nothing you can do to protect yourself from that!" are the ominous words that Kyle Bass uses to describe the farce that is rapidly approaching (and for now being ignored by stocks). Bass went on to pull no punches in his "disappointment" in JCPenney's performance (and dilution) coming as close as he can to saying "sell." But his piece de resistance was a dismal destruction of any silver lining for Puerto Rico and the significant implications that will have on Muni bonds in general.

As Warren Buffet openly states that he believes that a default on US debt will be catastrophic and that lawmakers in Congress need to get their act together and get the federal government back to work by passing the budget we might well wonder if it’s just for show or if he really believes that.

Confused at the growing pile of unpaid food-stamps? Unsure just how many non-essential government-workers are still on furlough? Befuddled by the duration of the shutdown? Fear no more, the following interactive "Shutdown Clock" quantifies just how dismal US politics has become.