Archive - Oct 2013

When it comes to Central Banks, there are doves and hawks - though in recent times, the two have become confused as to just what they think. However, it is becoming clear that in spite of their incessant need to print money (liquidity) into existence to maintain the status quo, some (but not all) are realizing there are very real costs to this insanity. Compare:

• ECB - *COEURE: LIQUIDITY INTERVENTION CAN INTERFERE WITH PRICE STABILITY
• ECB - *COEURE SAYS CRISIS SUPPORT CAN LATER HAVE "PERVERSE EFFECTS", GENERATE MORAL HAZARD

and

• FED - *WILLIAMS SEES UNCONVENTIONAL STIMULUS FOR NEXT FEW YEARS
• FED - *FED ZERO-RATE MOVE DIDN'T COMPROMISE POLICY

It seems central bankers believe what they want to believe.

If 4% of voters broke away from dysfunction and voted for independents, that "vital few" would influence 64% of all voters. Next election, join the 4% who will eventually influence the 64%. Voting for incumbents is like not voting at all: either way, you're throwing away your vote.

The US government is shut down, which means only essential spending is permitted. So what does the US government, or rather its Central Intelligence Agency decide to spend precious, mission-critical taxpayer money on? Why arming the Qatari-supported Al-Qaeda "rebels" in Syria of course. WaPo reports that the CIA is expanding a clandestine effort to train opposition fighters in Syria amid concern that moderate, U.S.-backed militias are rapidly losing ground in the country’s civil war, U.S. officials said.... “It’s basic infantry training,” the former U.S. intelligence official said. “How to have some discipline hitting a target, how to reload a magazine, how to clear a room. They’re not marching. They’re learning basic infantry procedures." So let's get this straight: 800,000 non-essential workers are furloughed, but the CIA, in its infinite wisdom, is now, when the government is shut down, doubling down on spending to make sure Al-Qaeda insurgents have even more lethal training (for that inevitable moment when they turn on their sponsor as they tend to do), and even better weapons?

Update: Boehner spox says Boehner "has always said the US will not default on its debt but cuts and reforms" also needed. In other words, nothing new in what appears to be a planted NYT piece designed to reduce Boehner's leverage.

Take the following report from the New York Times with an epic grain of salt, although for the time being, the following unsourced post in the NYT has pushed stocks off their lows. "With a budget deal still elusive and a deadline approaching on raising the debt ceiling, Speaker John A. Boehner has told colleagues that he is determined to prevent a federal default and is willing to pass a measure through a combination of Republican and Democratic votes, according to one House Republican"... Would the anonymous lawmaker happen to be Peter King, one wonders?

What would the world be without Tom Stolper FX recos? Very confusing, with no sure money to be made, and without anyone to fade, that's what. Which is why we are happy to bring the Goldman muppet slayer's latest FX "recommendation" In short: "We recommend going short $/JPY at current levels of about 97.30 for a tactical target of 94.00, with a stop on a close above 98.80." In even shorter: Goldman is now buying USDJPY from its clients. The only question we have: will the length of time before Stolper is once again Stolpered out be measured in days, or hours?

Presented with a stunned level of WTFness... the Obamacare Help-Line - available 24/7 is 1-800-318-2596 as we have been told a number of times by the President... it seems someone did not do their due diligence on what that telephone number's mnemomic is...

1-800-F U-CKYO

Indeed, Mr. President, 1-800-318-2596 to you too.

The Mother of all Deficits...

Gross: Don’t run for the hills b/c of the #shutdown or the debt ceiling – Run b/c the economy is slowing by itself.

— PIMCO (@PIMCO) October 3, 2013

Remember all those headlines about the "milions" of people swamping the new Obamacare exchange sites and how that explained why the "glitches" appeared and how this proves the American people are so desparate for the insurance... well, the truth appears to be leaking out. As Politico reports, California’s health insurance exchange reported - wrongly - that it had received 5 million hits on its website the first day of Obamacare. State officials said the real number was only about a tenth of that, or 645,000. Is it any wonder that fewer Americans trust other Americans than ever before?

Obama said "It's Different This Time," so will the BTFD'ers come back or not?

Something very curious caught our eye in today's Non-manufacturing ISM. It wasn't the "unexpected" drop in the data, which we reported on previously, but what one of the respondents said far in the back of the report. It was the following:

• "The federal government's spending is increasing greatly as agencies execute their final budgets and utilize fiscal year 2013 appropriated funds prior to their expiration on September 30th. This has  caused a major increase in procurement activity for goods and services.  Budgets are uncertain for fiscal year 2014, so some items requiring funding in future years are not being purchased." (Public  Administration)

This begs the question: is the only reason why the economy tends to pick up momentum dramatically as the summer ends just a function of a surge in government spending permeating the broader economy as agencies scramble to spend all the money they have before the end of the September 30 Fiscal Year End (just so they get allocated the same or greater budget in the coming fiscal year), which subsequently plunges or is outright halted as the case may be right now?

While the recent Federal Reserve inaction is bullish for stocks in the short term there are plenty of reasons to remain somewhat cautious.  Stocks are overvalued, rates are rising, earnings are deteriorating and despite signs of short term economic improvements the data trends remain within negative downtrends.   Investors, however, have disregarded fundamentals as irrelevant as long as the Federal Reserve remains committed to its accommodative policies.  The problem is that no one really knows how this will turn out and the current assumptions are based upon past performance. Complacency is not an option; it is critically important to understand that market reversions do not occur without a catalyst.  Whether it is the onset of an economic recession, a natural disaster or a financial crisis - there is always something that sparks the initial selloff that leads to a full blown market panic.  With this idea in mind here are 3 rising risks that investors should be paying attention to.

The Dow is down for the 9th day of the last 11 since the exuberant Un-Taper spike in stocks. Crucially though, it appears the government's efforts to fear-monger equity markets into forcing action by the House Republicans is working. The all-important Dow 15,000 level has been breached to the downside and represents a much more important "economic" breach than the debt ceiling to any and every talking head it would seem...

Gold recouped much of Tuesday's peculiar flash crash losses and rose by 2.4% yesterday rebounding some $40 from a two month low at $1,278.24/oz earlier in the session.

He started the ball rolling on the "Do Panic" rhetoric yesterday, and it didn't work. Jack Lew stepped up this morning with some more fearmongery and we suspect during the President's address at 1040ET this morning he will point out the Armageddon that will occur should the debt ceiling be breached - and ask why aren't equity investors selling? It seems he needs to appoint that non-bubble-blowing Fed head asap...