Archive - Oct 2013

If yesterday's collapse in September existing home sales was indicative that Housing is tumbling and it means the Fed will not taper until mid 2014 sending the S&P to a new record high, today's August Case Shiller, which beat expectations of a M/M increase of 0.65% with a 0.93% print, and an increase of 12.82% Y/Y, probably means that the economy is very strong and will send the S&P to an even newer recorder high, since both bad and good news send only one signal to algos: buy. What is amusing is that while the NAR's September fiasco was attributed to "concerns" over a government shutdown, the two month delayed Case Shiller print, which was for August, will be spun as no fears of a government shutdown in August, or something.

Moments ago hopes that the S&P would hit 1800 on an epic miss in the September retail sales were dashed after both the headline and ex-auto/gas numbers came largely in line. The total Seasonally Adjusted retail sales for September dipped modestly by 0.1%, on expectations of an unchanged print. Excluding autos the number was exactly in line with expectations at 0.4%, while ex autos and gas was also a very modest miss of 0.4% vs Exp. 0.5%. Still, hardly bad enough to send the S&P500 futures into the stratosphere. The biggest outliers by business category were motor vehicles which tumbled -2.2 in September, the biggest decline since October 2012 (did the US government suddenly stop making NINJA loans?), Miscellaneous stores and Clothing stores, down 1.2% and -0.5% respectively, while electronics and appliance stores rose 0.7% in September. In short: Americans may have no clothing as we enter the winter season, but at least they have the new iPad.

The news keeps going from worse to worse-er for the administration and Obamacare. The latest hit, however, does not revolve around the dysfunctional healthcare.gov website, whose hundreds of millions of lines of faulty code will take a very long time to fix, but relates to Obama's promises that individuals would be able to keep their existing healthcare plans following the rollout of the Affordable Care Act. The truth, as NBC reports, is they can't but what's worse is that Obama knew as early as July 2010 that 40 to 67 percent of customers will not be able to keep their policy. And that's not all: since the 14 millions consumers who buy their insurance individually will be forced into comparable plans, they are all set to experience a "sticker shock" when "opting" for the mandatory alternatives.

• U.S. spy chiefs face Congress amid spying rift with Europe (Reuters)
• Deutsche Bank income hit by €1.2bn of legal provisions (FT)
• China's second tapering attempt fails: China central bank seeks to reassure money markets after rate spike (Reuters)
• UBS Takes Action Against Staff in Foreign-Exchange Probe (WSJ)
• Saudi Arabia frees man jailed for Mohammad tweets (Reuters)
• Tax Revolts Hit Hollande as Farmers, Soccer Clubs Protest (BBG)
• German parliament to meet over U.S. spying scandal (Reuters)
• Google Nears Smartwatch Launch (WSJ)
• How to end gridlock in DC? Pork projects (Reuters)
• UBS ordered to increase capital reserves (FT)

For those curious what Bernanke's market may do today, we flash back to yesterday's AM summary as follows: "Just as it is easy being a weatherman in San Diego ("the weather will be... nice. Back to you"), so the same inductive analysis can be applied to another week of stocks in Bernanke's centrally planned market: "stocks will be... up." Add to this yesterday's revelations in which "JPM Sees "Most Extreme Ever Excess Liquidity" Bubble After $3 Trillion "Created" In First 9 Months Of 2013" and the full picture is clear. So while yesterday's overnight meltup has yet to take place, there is lots of time before the 3:30 pm ramp (although today's modest POMO of $1.25-$1.75 billion may dent the frothiness). Especially once the market recalls that the NOctaper FOMC 2-day meeting starts today.

While the biggest problem facing US bands is lack of demand (and supply, since it is far more profitable for banks to "invest" reserves in risk assets using excess deposits as initial margin) for loans, Japan doesn't have such a problem. At least not, when the loans are made to "gangsters" such as the Yakuza. AFP reports that executives at Mizuho Financial Group, one of Japan's largest banks, knew the firm was doing business with gangsters but failed to stop it, a panel said Monday, as Japan's finance minister slammed the banking giant over the affair. The bank has been in the public spotlight since it emerged last month that it processed hundreds of loans worth about $2 million for the country's notorious yakuza crime syndicates. And while in the US the punishment for banks caught in criminal behavior is a simple slap on the wrist and a settlement paid using TARP money, in Japan bank CEO still have some semblance of honor. Bloomberg adds that in the aftermath of the revelations, Mizuho's president Yasuhiro Sato will give up six months of pay ahead of more penalties, and will resign his Chairmanship at Mizuho Bank while keeping the post at the parent company. Some 52 other current executives will also be penalized.

Usually what goes up normally ends up coming back down to Earth with a damn great thud. Well, that was long ago with good old Isaac Newton and the apple story.

I have a business I would like to sell you. Let’s run over the numbers first. First and foremost, I have to be honest, this business has not implemented a budget in five years. I know that seems like an insane way to run a business, but I can assure you that management is comprised of highly intelligent, ethical people.

In a dramatic change of events that is a) sure to not win the administration any goodwill point with the citizens of the free, or enslaved, world or their insolvent leaders so desperately reliant on the US for day to day funding, and b) will confirm the state of complete policy chaos that is at the core of the Obama administration's handling of the ObamaPhone spygate (where for some reason the fact that the US spied on foreigners, as it should, has taken far more precedence over the NSA intercepting and recording each and every domestic communication, with neither checks nor balances), the earlier reported news originating from the Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee Dianne Feinstein, who said that "the White House has informed me that collection on our allies will not continue, which I support" was a fabrication.

Did you know that the number of Americans on welfare is higher than the number of Americans that have full-time jobs?  Did you know that 1.2 million public school students in the U.S. are currently homeless?  Anyone that uses the term "economic recovery" to describe what is happening in the United States today is being deeply insulting to the nearly 150 million Americans that are considered to be either "poor" or "low income" at this point.  Yes, things are great in New York City, Washington D.C. and San Francisco, but almost everywhere else economic conditions continue to steadily get worse.  The gap between the wealthy and the poor is at a level that America has never seen before, and this is beginning to create a "Robin Hood mentality" that could cause a tremendous amount of social chaos in the years ahead. Despite unprecedented borrowing by the federal government in recent years, and despite unprecedented money printing by the Federal Reserve, poverty in the United States keeps getting worse with each passing year. The following are 29 incredible facts which prove that poverty in America is absolutely exploding

One year later and due mainly to the fact the Japanese stock market has risen an astounding 70% year-over-year, talking-heads, politicians, and central bankers proclaim Abe's trip into the monetary policy black hole as a success (it would seem on that basis that the head of Venezuela's central bank deserves a Nobel prize). Abe has managed to devalue his nation's currency by 25.5% against the USD in that time and the price of Japanese government bonds (despite some early teething trouble with the government's repressive activity) is practically unchanged up 0.75% on the year. But away from the 'market', inflation is rising (but thanks to import prices) and wages languish down 0.9% as the trade balance is collapsing. One thing is for sure - dueling QEs between Japan and the USA make for highly correlated FX and equity market co-movements...

No wonder investors don't take economists seriously. Or if they do, they shouldn't. Since Richard Nixon interrupted Hoss and Little Joe on a Sunday night in August 1971, it's been one boom and bust after another. But don't tell that to the latest Nobel Prize co-winner, Eugene Fama, the founder of the efficient-market hypothesis. No matter the facts, Fama has his story and he's sticking to it. "I think most bubbles are 20/20 hindsight," Fama told Cassidy. The rest of us, who lived through the tech and real estate booms while Fama was locked in his ivory tower, know that in a boom people go crazy. There's a reason the other term for bubble is mania.

The world's first Bitcoin ATM will be ready for use this week at a coffee shop in Vancouver, Canada. Created by Las Vegas based Robocoin, the new ATM in Vancouver will allow users to turn bitcoins directly into Canadian dollars, or turn Canadian dollars into bitcoins. As The Telegraph reports, the ATM first scans the user's palm to ensure security and transfers are limited to CAD$3,000 per day. Until now, the currency existed only on the web but the introduction of these ATMs brings bitcoin-as-cash usage closer. The RoboCoin kiosks are expected to make the process of buying and selling Bitcoins much easier says Jordan Kelley, the company's chief executive. "Our goal is to make Bitcoin truly grandma-friendly," says Kelley. This is especially notable in light of President Obama asking Eric Schmidt if "Bitcoin is anything he has to worry about?"

"Obama built that"...  And now good luck tearing it down and its several hundred million lines of code, and rebuilding it from scratch.

On the back of dismal data this morning merely compounding the belief that whatever happens, there will be no Taper anytime soon (and record high physical premiums over spot as Indian demand surges), gold prices broke back above $1360 this morning to five-week highs. Of course, that 'rise' was very quickly squelched as stocks POMO'd higher from the US open; but, as Citi's FX technicals group notes, the break of $1343 points to a test of $1430 and a bias to testing back above the $1522-32 region.