Archive - Nov 13, 2013

It's been a tough year for John Taylor - cursed by the CNBC Squawk Master monicker - but it appears to be getting worse. As Hedge Fund Alert reports, less than a year before his currency-trading shop filed for bankruptcy, the FX Concepts founder personally guaranteed a chunk of the debt his firm owes to its largest creditor. AMF, the Credit Suisse hedge fund incubator, is owed $34.4 million with Taylor on the hook for $5 million and "is going to clearly try to get the money out of John," but, "by any stretch of the imagination, it's not there." Recent court documents suggest the fund was in even worse shape than previously understood as the liquidation of FX Concepts' four main assets is ongoing but as a whole, however, the trading programs probably are worth little, one source said. “If their models worked, they would have produced returns,” he said. “Their brand has no value, unless you want to advertise negative returns.”

Today's $24 billion in new 10 Year paper, with a 2.75% cash coupon, sold with a perfect par, or 100.000, price, for a yield of 2.75%, which stopped through the 2.754% When Issued. The auction was strong in every aspect: the Bid To Cover was a solid 2.70, higher than last month's 2.58, the second highest of the past 6 months, and just a fraction below the TTM average of 2.73. The Primary Dealers took down 33.8%, as there was a scramble by the Indirects to buy paper, leaving them with 47.7% of the takedown, well above the 38.3% TTM average, and the second highest going back all the way to November 2011. Directs were therefore left with 18.6%, modestly less than the 22.52% TTM. Overall, a solid auction which added some much needed collateral to an otherwise very illiquid market.

What happens when the government sets the precedent that what was private is now public property? Encouraged by President Maduro's seeming incitement "Leave nothing on the shelves, nothing in the warehouses... Let nothing remain in stock!" crowds of Venezuelans looted the local DAKA stores after the government's 'occupation'... "this is good for the nation," Maduro concluded... You decide...

Congratulations to our new managing directors, http://t.co/gqrsGKrKvY

— Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) November 13, 2013

... Is shown on the chart below, which compares indexed growth, or lack thereof, in G-5 GDP and compares it to consolidated central bank balance sheets. We bring this up because following this morning's announcement by the ECB's Praet that the European central bank may launch a round of QE (of questionable legality) it is only a matter of time before the red line really takes off and insanity hits truly unseen levels.

Milan prosecutors ordered the seizure of a substantial batch of computer and telephone equipment from Apple's Italian HQ as part of an investigation into allegations of a one billion euro tax fraud. As L'Espresso reports, the allegations surround false representation of accounting records (EUR206mm in 2010 and EUR853mm in 2011) which were recorded by the Irish entity 'Apple Sales International' but, Italian authorities suggest were services rendered for business carried out in Italy. Beyond this investigation, it seems the growing tax divergences (and loopholes) that we have previously discussed (such as the Double Irish) are becoming a key focus for an increasingly cash-strapped European periphery (among others).

We can usefully classify politicians into three categories: caretakers, practical visionaries and values-transformers. Solving profoundly structural problems by establishing a new foundation of values that most can embrace positively is the hallmark of leadership. Either those with these leadership skills are avoiding politics or the voters are rejecting them in favor of caretakers who are incapable of challenging political powerful constituencies or finding common ground for desperately needed systemic reforms.

Back in October, when Obamacare's birthing problems first became evident, and when healthcare.gov was revealed as the best website ever built... using ForTran... we suggested that it was only a matter of time before Obama blames the evil, terroristy hackers of the world and mostly of Syria. Moments ago, that just happened.

• U.S. CYBERSECURITY OFFICIAL SAYS AWARE OF ONE ATTEMPTED DENIAL OF SERVICE ATTACK ON HEALTHCARE.GOV

Good old administration: predictable to a fault. Now go get those evil, terroristy hackers.

First it was the Treasury, next it was European Commissioner Barroso who indicated he has never read "Export-led growth through exports for idiots" and announced the launch of a probe into Germany's so-called "export surplus." Because how dare Germany produce stuff that the world needs and buys, instead of flooding its economy with record debt to fund consumption-driven "groath." Well, it didn't take long for the German Economic Ministry to retort to Europe's unelected economic titans of thought, for whom it is far more important that all sink together dragged down by cement boots made out of debt, and blasted Barroso bureaucratic bluster.

Self-directed retirement schemes with a gold and/or precious metals allocation are a powerful retirement planning tool and considering the continuing financial malaise affecting the U.S., they will continue to offer a genuine long-term savings option.

White men may not have jobs, but at least they will have more time to enjoy sports actvities such as basketball, and finally learn to jump. As for any associated sport injuries: there's always Obamacare.

Despite the ECB's recent "stunning" rate cut, which sent the EUR modestly lower by a few hundred pips, the resultant resurge in the European currency has left the European Central Bank even more stunned: just what does it have to do to force its currency lower and boost Europe's peripheral economies, especially in a world in which every other major central banks is printing boatloads of money each and every month. We hinted at precisely what the next steps will be two days ago when in "Next From The ECB: Here Comes QE, According To BNP" we said "BNP is ultimately correct as the European experiment will require every weapon in the ECB's arsenal, and sooner or later the ECB, too, will succumb to the same monetary lunacy that has gripped the rest of the developed world in the ongoing "all in" bet to reflate or bust. All logical arguments that outright monetization of bonds are prohibited by various European charters will be ignored: after all, there is "political capital" at stake, and as Mario Draghi has made it clear there is no "Plan B." Which means the only question is when will Europe join the lunaprint asylum: for the sake of the systemic reset we hope the answer is sooner rather than later." Two days later, the answer just appeared when moments ago the WSJ reported that the ECB hinted more QE is, as we predicted, on the table.

House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Darrell Issa leads yet another hearing on the Obamacare implementation and the rollout of Healthcare.gov. The Committee will examine the operational challenges in the development of Healthcare.gov and the extent to which recognized Information Technology (IT) best practices were followed. This one should be fun since its the techies answering the questions - US CTO Todd Park and Deputy CIO Henry Chao answering the questions...

While the only topic of discussion for "sophisticated" investors everywhere is when (and if) the Fed will ever dare to reduce its monthly flow injection into US markets from $85 billion to a paltry $75 billion, everyone has forgotten that across the Pacific, for the past seven months the BOJ has been calmly injecting another $75 billion each and every month into the market, with no risk of this liquidity boost ever being tapered (since the broad 2% inflation target relies on ever broader wage increases that will never come). However, much to Japan's chagrin, in the current insta-globally fungible capital markets, over the past five months the bulk of this liquidity has found its way to the US stock bubble, leaving the Nikkei in the dust. As a result, the local Japanese liquidity junkies have started to loudly complain once again, and now the FT reports that "as excitement over the world’s second-biggest stock market has faded, some are now crying out for another jump-start." In other words: the BOJ must do "moar" to push the Nikkei bubble even higher following its rangebound trade since May which, worst of all, is now the primary reason why "hope is fading."

Q3 earnings for financials show that the interest rate risk created by the Fed after years of zero rates is very real indeed