Archive - Nov 13, 2013

As we discussed two weeks ago, it would appear Germany's lack of willingness to throw itself on the pyre of self-sacrifice and not adopt a global Fairness Doctrine - as engendered by the US Treasury's (and IMF's) bashing of the core European nation's for maintaining its export strength and daring to keep Europe in tact and thus a periphery-damaging strong Euro - is gathering steam. None other than Europe itself is now 'probing' Germany's trade surplus, using enhanced powers over how euro nations manage their economies with the IMF urging German Chancellor Angela Merkel to curtail the trade surplus to an “appropriate rate” to help euro  partners cut deficits.

With a shiny red ballon dog selling for $58 million, perhaps it was time to take a little profit in the equity exuberance. S&P futures are down 9 points from last night's close - which in the new normal is considerable (sadly) - with no macro data headlines this morning to spark a move, we will be watching JPY (which for now is rallying awkwardly) for signs of ignition. Meanwhile, as the USD flatlines (despite dispersion in FX), Bitcoin just toppped $400 for the first time ever - doubling in the last two weeks. Precious metals are up modestly; treasury yields are limping lower; and European equities (and sovereign bonds) are having another tough day.

The lack of prosecution of bankers responsible for the great financial collapse has been a hotly debated topic over the years, leading to the coinage of such terms as "Too Big To Prosecute", the termination of at least one corrupt DOJ official, the revelation that Eric Holder is the most useless Attorney General in history, and even members of the judicial bashing other members of the judicial such as in last night's essay by district judge Jed Rakoff. And naturally, the lack of incentives that punish cheating and fraud, is one of the main reasons why such fraud will not only continue but get bigger and bigger, until once again, the entire system crashes under the weight of all the corruption and all the Fed-driven malinvestment. But what can be done? In this case, Vietnam may have just shown America the way - use the death penalty on convicted embezzling bankers. Because if one wants to promptly stop an end to financial crime, there is nothing quite like the fear of death to halt it.

• Desperate Philippine typhoon survivors loot, dig up water pipes (Reuters)
• Fading Japanese market momentum frustrates investors (FT)
• China's meager aid to the Philippines could dent its image (Reuters)
• Headline du jour: Granted 'decisive' role, Chinese markets decide to slide (Reuters)
• Central Banks Risk Asset Bubbles in Battle With Deflation Danger (BBG)
• Navy Ship Plan Faces Pentagon Budget Cutters (WSJ)
• Investors pitch to take over much of Fannie and Freddie (FT)
• To expand Khamenei’s grip on the economy, Iran stretched its laws (Reuters)
• Short sellers bet that gunmaker shares are no long shot (FT)
• Deflation threat in Europe may prompt investment rethink (Reuters)

As DB notes, it appears that markets continue to steadily price in a greater probability of a December taper judging by the 2bp increase in 10yr UST yields, 1.2% drop in the gold price and an edging up in the USD crosses yesterday. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart, who is considered a bellwether within the Fed, kept the possibility of a December tapering open in public comments yesterday. But his other comments were quite dovish, particularly when he said that he wants to see inflation accelerate toward 2% before reducing asset purchases to give him confidence that the US economy was not dealing with a “downside scenario”. Lockhart stressed that any decision by the Fed on QE would be data dependent - so his comments that the government shutdown will make coming data "less reliable" than might otherwise have been, until at least December, were also quite telling. The dovish sentiments were echoed by Kocherlakota, a FOMC voter next year. In other words, an Oscar-worthy good-cop/bad-cop performance by the Fed's henchmen, confusing algotrons for the second day in a row.

What to look out for on November 13th's BoE quarterly inflation rate due at 1030GMT/0430CST