Archive - Nov 14, 2013

Tyler Durden's picture

House Democrat On Obamacare "I Don't Know How Obama Fucked This Up So Badly"





For five years, congressional Democrats have sprung to his defense when Obama's been in trouble. Now though, amid the dismal reality of Obamacare, Politico reports a familiar refrain from Democratic sources: Obama's "if-you-like-it-you-can-keep-it" promise on insurance policies is his "Read my lips, no new taxes" moment — a reference to the broken promise that came to damage President George H.W. Bush’s credibility with his fellow Republicans. His one-time allies are no longer sure that it's wise to follow him into battle, leaving Obama and his law not only vulnerable to existing critics, but open to new attacks from his own party. Democratic sources say, Obama can expect that lawmakers will be quicker to criticize him — and distance themselves from his policies.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

China Repo Spikes Most In 5-Month Highs; Japanese Stocks Soar As TEPCO Finds Another Leak





While the Dow has quietly added over 200 points in the last 2 days, the potential for Kuroda and Abe to embark on QQQE has sent Japan's Nikkei 225 up a magnificently suitable (given the utterly dismal macro data from yesterday) 700 points in the same period. Somehow this jerk higher to near the big collapse-day highs in May makes sense to someone (as TEPCO announces yet another leak). Meanwhile, across the sea, Chinese money-markets are exploding. The last 2 days have seen a combination of no operations yesterday and a big lift in rates today which spiked overnight repo-rates to 5.32% - the highest in 5 months if it closed there - as clearly smaller banks are desperate for liquidity. FX markets are seeing weakness continue in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines. So, all-in-all, total chaos...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

How JP Morgan Bribed The Chinese Prime Minister's Daughter Using A Fake Name





Allegations of JP Morgan’s use of clever tactics to bribe Chinese officials recently received mainstream attention when Salon journalist Alex Pareene mentioned it in a comical and classic interview on CNBC (you need to watch the video before reading this) with presstitute Maria Bartiromo. When Mr. Pareene mentioned these claims against the TBTF bank, CNBC mocked him. Howeverer, this article from the New York Times details how JP Morgan paid $75,000 a month to an obscure consulting firm called Fullmark Consultants, which had only two employees. The firm was run by a woman named Lily Chang, which in reality was the alias used by Wen Jiabao’s only daughter Wen Ruchun. Wen Jiabao was the Prime Minister of China at the time.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

What Quinoa Can Teach The Markets





It is human nature to follow fads, no matter how strange or cultish they may seem. Anything from Beanie Babies to cupcakes to even tech IPOs fall into this category, but, ConvergEx's Nick Colas asks, why do some of these trends manage to stick around while others die off? We might laugh now at bellbottoms and the so-called “grapefruit diet”, but at one point in time these were both fashionable – and profitable. So what does it take to make a fad last? Colas looks at a number of quirky trends past and present and importantly for market participants, finds lessons that extend directly to investor psychology and discipline. The bottom line is that we are sometimes blind to our own trading (and fashion) mistakes in the moment, but we are not preordained to make the same errors in perpetuity.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Miracle Cure...?





Where and how is all of this going to end? We don't know, but we doubt the end will be anything but painful for all around.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Citi Warns "Fed Is Kicking The Can Over The Edge Of A Cliff"





It is becoming increasingly obvious that we are seeing the disconnect between financial markets and the real economy grow. It is also increasingly obvious (to Citi's FX Technicals team) that not only is QE not helping this dynamic, it is making things worse. It encourages misallocation of capital out of the real economy, it encourages poor risk management, it increases the danger of financial asset inflation/bubbles, and it emboldens fiscal irresponsibility etc.etc. If the Fed was prepared to draw a line under this experiment now rather than continuing to "kick the can down the road" it would not be painless but it would likely be less painful than what we might see later. Failure to do so will likely see us at the "end of the road" at some time in the future and the 'can' being "kicked over the edge of a cliff." Enough is enough.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: The End Of The Line?





Maybe 2015 will be the year of the collapse. Our entire economy runs on debt creations, vis-a-vis financialization, since we import $500 billion a year more than we export. 2015 is the year when increasing debt results in ZERO GDP growth. The end of the line. But that won’t stop the Federal Reserve and the criminals in Washington. Enjoy what time we have left before it all collapses. The Keynesians that are busy trying to turn the magic levers in our economy right now still aren’t getting the message, more than two years later: government spending can’t make the economy grow. Until they stop trying (and racking up immense, almost unfathomable amounts of debt), things are likely to continue to get worse

 

Tyler Durden's picture

"Yellen Has Ensured An Equity Market Crash Is Inevitable"





Yellen had to field several questions about potential market bubbles, but she deflected them aggressively saying that she did not believe that “bubble-like conditions” existed. Basically, she has given the market the green light to “melt-up”. The only question is how much higher will the Fed’s ‘gift’ drive prices? She indicated the Fed has no choice but to continue with this policy until it succeeds (or will it ultimately fail?). As perverse as this seems, Yellen likely ensured that an equity market crash (someday) is inevitable. Yellen’s failure to acknowledge any signs of bubble-like conditions encourages more risk-taking and speculation. Therefore, this fact, combined with her hints of a continuation of policy, should lead to a bubble; if one hasn't been created already. And, all bubbles eventually pop.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Meet The New York Superintendant Who Can't Wait To Regulate Bitcoin





Ben Lawsky, the New York financial services superintendent, has made it clear: he wants to regulate BitCoin now by issuing BitLicenses for business that conduct transactions in Bitcoin, and to that end he will conduct a public hearing to discuss the "burgeoning world of digital money." Participants will discuss the feasibility of a license that would make the virtual currency market more like those for other forms of money. In other words: it will make Bitcoin just like the fiat currency it is trying to replace, at least in the eyes of the government. At which point the primary utility of Bitcoin - as an unregulated medium of exchange- itself disappears.

 

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Academic Insanity Costs You 2% Of You Purchasing Power Per Year





 

How is inflation of 2% acceptable? Why is this base assumption never challenged? At this rate, in 10 years you’ve lost roughly 20% of your purchasing power. And during the average worker’s lifetime, they will see a 40-60% decrease in purchasing power.

 
 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Fed's 100-Year War Against Gold (And Economic Common Sense)





On December 23, 2013, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) will celebrate its 100th birthday, so we thought it was time to take a look at the Fed’s real accomplishment, and the practices and policies it has employed during this time to rob the public of its wealth. The criticism is directed not only at the world’s most powerful central bank - the Fed - but also at the concept of central banks in general, because they are the antithesis of fiscal responsibility and financial constraint as represented by gold and a gold standard. The Fed was sold to the public in much the same way as the Patriot Act was sold after 9/11 - as a sacrifice of personal freedom for the promise of greater government protection. Instead of providing protection, the Fed has robbed the public through the hidden tax of inflation brought about by currency devaluation.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

As Goes WalMart...





...so goes global GDP...?

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Just Before David Tepper Was Preaching A 20x P/E On CNBC, He Was Selling These Stocks





On October 15, two weeks after the end of the third quarter, David Tepper appeared on CNBC for his semi-annual stock pumpfest, most memorable for his suggestion that a 20x P/E multiple on the S&P was perfectly acceptable. Which would suggest Tepper was very bullish on risk. Which would suggest buying more stocks, not selling. Yet selling is precisely what he did between June 30 and September 30 according to his just released 13F. Specifically, after having a total long equity AUM of $6.9 billion at the end of the second quarter, the Appaloosian lowered the dollar value of his AUM by nearly 10%, to $6.3 billion as of September 30. So what did he liqudate? Here are his biggest liquidations and notable sales.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

"No Warning Can Save People Determined To Grow Suddenly Rich"





We have seen a confluence of events that suggests we may be reaching the terminal point of the financial markets merry-go-round – that point just before the ride stops suddenly and unexpectedly and the passengers are thrown from their seats. Having waited with increasing concern to see what might transpire from the gridlocked US political system, the market was rewarded with a few more months’ grace before the next agonising debate about raising the US debt ceiling. There was widespread relief, if not outright jubilation. Stock markets rose, in some cases to all-time highs. But let there be no misunderstanding on this point: the US administration is hopelessly bankrupt. (As are those of the UK, most of western Europe, and Japan.) The market preferred to sit tight on the ride, for the time being.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The QEeen Sends Stocks Soaring To Moar New Highs; Bonds & Bullion Bid





Despite a 10% collapse in CSCO (which apparently is not a bellwhether anymore at all) - notching a mere 18 points off the Dow, Yellen's confirmation of everything we thought we knew (and bad macro data) was enough to send the S&P and Dow to new all-time highs. Treasuries rallied 2bps (5-8bps on the week) and gold lifted back to unchanged on the week. VIX limped lower. On the day, the USD closed higher (thanks to JPY weakness supporting stocks) but was lower from early highs. Credit markets rallied very modestly but remain hugely divergent in this supposed QEeen-fueled surge. And on it goes...

 
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