Archive - Nov 1, 2013

After briefly becoming the strongest currency in the world for 2013, yesterday's stunning inflation report out of the Eurozone has not only left the massively overblown European recovery story in tatters (but... but... those soaring PMIs, oh wait, John Paulson is investing in Greece - the "recovery" is indeed over), has sent the sellside penguins scrambling with the new conviction that the ECB now has no choice but to lower rates once again, either in November or in December. So with everyone confused, we were hoping that that perpetual contrarian bellwether Tom Stolper, who just came out with a report, may have some insight. And sure enough, while the long-term EUR bull admits that "the ECB could move the EUR/USD cross by about 5 big figures by cutting the refi rate by 25bp" and that "it is quite possible that we will see EUR/$ drop further towards 1.33", he concludes that "an ECB rate cut could turn out to be a buying opportunity to go long the EUR." And now we know: because what Stolper tells his few remaining muppets to buy, Goldman is selling: if and when the ECB cuts rates, do what Goldman does, not what is says: sell everything.

Reports hitting the tape of a shooting at LAX terminal 3, and that an evacuation is underway. According to local TV at least one TSA agent was inured and covered in blood, and the shooter may still be at large.

Proof that NSA Spying Is Not Very Focused On Terrorism

The bailed-out owner of the Fukushima nuke, famous for its lackadaisical handling of the fiasco and its stinginess with the truth, reported earnings. It was a doozie.

The Outrage!

When even Bank of America has a note titled "It's getting frothy, man", and joins such other bubble-warners as JPM, Bill Gross, Larry Fink, and David Einhorn, one can be absolutely positive that the Fed will do... absolutely nothing.

There was a time when the only complaint the SEC's 4000 employees had was that some porn sites charge just too much - after all, the SEC's "enforcement" budget is limited, while the worldwide supply of pornography is virtually endless. It's time to add one more grievance to the list of all those overworked regulators who have yet to put someone, anyone, from the big banks in jail as a consequence for nearly destroying the western way of life, or do more than merely wrist slap Steve Cohen with a penalty that costs more than three or four Picasso paintings: lunch breaks.

One thing that was not mentioned in the otherwise blemish-free GM sales report, is that the biggest reason for the surge in GM "deliveries" was because the car company once again resorted to that old faithful gimmick: dealer channel stuffing. At 728K units in dealer inventory at month end, or 87 days supply, this was the highest number since March 2013, but more troublingly, the monthly rate of increase was the highest since GM's emergency as a "new" company from bankruptcy.

So much for the government shutdown - as one of the just released manufacturing ISM respondents so candidly put it, "The government shutdown has not had any impact on our business that I can determine, nor has it impacted any supplier shipments." And speaking of the ISM itself, it naturally rejected everything that the Markit PMI noted, and printed at 56.4, beating expectations of a 55.0 print, the 5th beat in a row, and the highest print since April 2011. Sadly, it was not 66.4 or 76.4 to at least partially "confirm" the Chicago ISM surge. So while virtually all ISM components rose, with exports spiking by 5 points to 57.0, it was the employment index that dipped yet again, from 55.4 to 53.2, the lowest since June, but in the New Normal who needs jobs when one has Schrodinger diffusion indices to confuse everyone on a daily basis. Either way, while stocks did not like yesterday's exploding Chicago PMI and dipped on fears of a December taper, today's 2 years ISM high is one of those good news is good news instances, and ES soars as usual.

Today's "good Fed cop" award goes to St. Louis Fed president James Bullard who has some words of caution which neither he, nor anyone else at the FOMC, will pay attention to:

• BULLARD SAYS RISK OF ASSET PRICE BUBBLES ‘HUGE ISSUE’ FOR FOMC
• BULLARD: LOW RATES, NOT JUST QE, WOULD ACCOUNT FOR ANY BUBBLE
• BULLARD SAYS LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION DECLINE BEGAN IN 2000
• BULLARD SAYS LAND PRICES MAY BECOME ASSET PRICE BUBBLE
• BULLARD SAYS ‘I’M THE BIGGEST INFLATION HAWK’, or better known as dove in hawk's clothing

And the punchline:

• BULLARD: `THERE MAY BE SOME OTHER' ASSET BUBBLE `GOING ON'

Yes: the bubble of Fed "assets"

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If anyone needed confirmation that yesterday's soaring Chicago PMI data (to the highest since March 2011) was a typical "Made In Chicago" fabrication, then look no further than today's final MarkIt US Manufacturing PMI, which instead of soaring as its Chicago counterpart, tumbled from 52.8 to 51.8, the lowest print since October of 2012 as the report indicated "only modest improvement in business conditions", "output growth weakest for over four years", and "new orders increasing at the slowest pace since April." Then again, in the New Normal world in which data reports separated by 24 hours are expected to indicate diametrically opposite things, this is quite normal, and if nothing else, absolutely bullish. Why? Who knows, but cratering Manufacturing Output is surely beneficial to the stock market, if not the actual economy.

"The motivation behind America's extensive eavesdropping is unclear. The explanations the White House has been forced to offer are far from explanatory, and the diorthosis President Barack Obama has promised seems all but skin-deep.  The apparent application of a double standard only reinforces the image of a Janus-faced America. In the sunlight, it preaches; in the dark, it pries. On the offensive, it orates; on the defensive, it equivocates. The wayward practice has now backfired, and the damage is increasing...  Trust is the first and foremost casualty. Common sense dictates that trust is a two-way street: One has to trust in order to be trusted. It is particularly true in friendships and alliances. America obviously failed to follow the simple rule.  If Washington did not knit the worldwide wiretapping web just because it could, then its pillage for information unveils an Uncle Sam too deeply entrenched in suspicion and isolation to treat anyone as a real friend. Ironically enough, the bugging undermines the very thing it is supposed to protect -- national security. As America pins its security on alliances, the tapping tale would sour its relationship with allies -- and thus erode its security bedrock -- more than any terrorist would be capable of."