Archive - Nov 2013

Milliseconds after the release of the jobs report this morning, the 'supposedly' most liquid bond market in the world - US Treasury futures - were halted for 5 seconds. As Nanex notes, this has happened before... What is also evident, as seen below, is Gold's premature plunge (who knew what when?) So while yesterday was the turn of the OTC equity market, today we see fixed income markets 'break'...

So much for the surge in 691,000 full-time jobs in September. One short month later, indicating just what a farce the BLS's sampling process is, while the algo frenzy-inducing establishment survey showed a gain of 204,000 workers, the household survey had some other ideas. True, the headline household survey number rose by an almost identical 213,000 workers, however it is when trying to foot that number into the actual components, when one gets a headache. Because according to the same survey, a whopping 623,000 full-time workers (supposedly government) lost their jobs in October, nearly offsetting the entire 691,000 gain the month before which it turns out was purely for Obamacare (now hopelessly damaged) optics.

The labor force participation rate plunged from 63.2% to 62.8% - the lowest since 1978! More importantly, the number of people not in the labor force exploded by nearly 1 million, or 932,000 to be exact, in just the month of October, to a record 91.5 million Americans! This was the third highest monthly surge in history. This was the third highest monthly increase in people falling out of the labor force in US history.

If ever there was a more sad indication of just what the Fed's liquidity hosepipe of exuberance has done to global capital markets, it is this morning's reaction to a better-than-expected payrolls report. Good news, right? Oh no - not for risk... indicative that a 'taper' may be closer than some hoped, bond yields are blowing higher, stocks are dumping, Gold and Silver are tumbling, and the USD is surging. Still think a 'taper' is priced in? Still think markets reflect anything but the flow of fed money printing? Think again...

So much for all the fire and brimstone associated with the government shutdown.

• October nonfarm payrolls soar +204,000, nearly double the 120,000 expected.
• Unemployment rate at 7.3%, up from 7.2%.

And just like that, the "Taper talk" is back...

• JP Morgan 75K
• Goldman Sachs 100K
• UBS 100K
• Bank of America 110K
• HSBC 120K
• Barclays 125K
• Citigroup 130K
• Deutsche Bank 130K

Each month the BLS tells us, buried in an oft-ignored table, what percentage of businesses surveyed returned a response in time for the first payroll print. Despite payrolls remaining an intensively revised number (part of the reason we usually advocate fading an overreaction in the market), this data collection rate has climbed steadily over the years. The attached chart shows the first-print data collection rate for October going back to 1981. Collections have risen from about 40% to above 70% over this period.

If last year it was the East Coast's turn to suffer a freak super storm, this year it is the already battered Philippines, which suffered a 7.2 magnitude earthquake last month, turn as Super Typhoon Haiyan, the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane, slammed into the Philippines today after forcing thousands of people to evacuate. With sustained winds of 315 kph (195 mph) and gusts as strong as 380 kph (235 mph), Haiyan was probably the strongest tropical cyclone to hit land anywhere in the world in recorded history. "If it maintains its strength, there has never been a storm this strong making landfall anywhere in the world,” said Jeff Masters, founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “This is off the charts.” Not taking chances, the local government has ordered over 125,000 people from 22 provinces to evacuate.

• Fed Anxiety Rises as QE Raises Risk of Loss With Political Cost (BBG)
• Iran Nuclear Deal Expected as Early as Friday (WSJ)
• Israel rejects mooted interim Iran nuclear deal, Kerry heads to talks (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Banker Backed $200 Million Madoff Loan in 2008 (BBG)
• Unleashing the food nazis - FDA Says Trans Fats Aren't Safe in Food (WSJ)
• Draghi Aggression Shows Pledges Backed by Rate Surprise (BBG)
• S&P Cuts France's Credit Rating by One Notch to Double-A (WSJ)
• S&P criticises France’s high tax rates for stifling growth (FT)
• Payroll Gains in U.S. Probably Cooled Amid Government Shutdown (BBG)

While today's big event is the October Non-farm payrolls print, which consensus has at 120K and unemployment rising from 7.2% to 7.3%, there was a spate of events overnight worth noting, starting with Chinese exports and imports both rising more than expected (5.6% and 7.6% vs expectations of 1.9% and 7.4% respectively), leading to an October trade surplus of $31.1 billion double the $15.2 billion reported in August. This led to a brief jump in Asian regional market which however was promptly faded. Germany also reported a greater trade surplus than expected at €20.4bn vs €15.4 bn expected, which begs the question just where are all these excess exports going to? Perhaps France, whose trade deficit rose from €5.1 billion to €5.8 billion, more than the €4.8 billion expected. Of note also was the French downgrade from AA+ to AA by S&P, citing weak economic prospects, with fiscal constraints throughout 2014. The agency added that the country has limited room to maneuver and sees an inability to significantly cut government spending. The downgrade, however, was largely a buy the EURUSD dip event as rating agencies' opinions fade into irrelevance.

In a mirror image of the NSA's wanton invasion of privacy - whether 'enabled' by privacy policy 'small print' or not - NYTimes Charlie Savage claims that the CIA pays the US' 2nd largest telecom company, AT&T, $10 million a year in exchange for voluntarily handing over troves of phone logs. This has been going on since at least 2010 and while the CIA is forbidden from "acquiring information concerning the domestic activities of US persons," AT&T has indeed been handing over information pertaining to American citizens.

A little over a week ago, the world’s first Bitcoin ATM was launched to much fanfare in a Vancouver coffee shop called Waves Coffee, is off to a fast start, conducting $100,000 (Canadian) worth of transactions in its first eight days of operation. The rollout of Bitcoin ATMs is a huge positive for the network going forward. The difficulty of buying bitcoins has been a huge obstacle that has prevented more people from getting involved. These ATMs will change that paradigm entirely for the communities in which they are installed...

If you’re 24, buried in college loans and looking for a job in a city that’s affordable but not completely depressing, you’re probably wondering where to start (while spoon-feeding yourself ice cream in your high-school bedroom). On the other hand, if you’re in your early 30s and New York or Los Angeles is grinding you down into a quivering husk of financial and emotional instability, it might be time to get out. Either way, with new data showing that 36 percent of adults between the ages of 18 and 31 are currently living at home with mom and dad (the highest number in 40 years, according to Pew Research Center), vocativ thought it was high time to crunch the numbers and figure out where the hell you can actually live these days and still retain some self-respect.

Did you know that 40 percent of all American workers make less than $20,000 a year before taxes?  And 65 percent of all American workers make less than $40,000 a year before taxes.  If you work on Wall Street, or have a cushy job with the federal government, or work for a big tech firm out on the west coast, life is probably pretty good for you right now.  But the truth is that most Americans are not living the high life.  In fact, most Americans are just trying to figure out how to survive from month to month. If we truly did have a free market capitalist system, the entire country would be a land of opportunity and things would be getting better for everybody.  Unfortunately, that is not the case at all.  The following are 21 facts about "wealthy America" and "poor America" that are hard to believe...