Archive - Nov 2013

Hi! I’m Amy Johnson-Martinez, the 14-year-old girl who’s saving the earth from environmental destruction. A lot of people don’t understand how the destruction of the earth is connected to our addiction to economic growth. Actually, a lot of people don’t even realize that we’re addicted! Personally speaking, I think it’s kind of weird that economists don’t tell us about this. So I guess it takes a 14-year-old girl to tell you about it! Economists always say, “The economy has to keep growing or else it will collapse.” But it can’t grow forever, because the earth is running out of resources. Actually, it’s already starting to happen. That’s a big reason why the economy is getting worse.

3 months later and it appears hope has reverted (once again) to its new normal reality. "Just one more quarter," we are sure, will be the clarion call from all asunder...

Just over 400-years ago today, a group of 13 conspirators were caught trying to assassinate King James I of England and blow up the House of Lords in what became known as the Gunpowder Treason. Fundamentally, the Gunpowder Treason was about freedom. The English monarchy at the time was controlling nearly every aspect of the economy and their subjects’ lives– from what they could wear to how they could worship.“Sumptuary laws” which regulated private behavior were commonplace. When you think about it, the collapse was inevitable. The Gunpowder Treason of November 5, 1605 may have been a failure for the conspirators, but given enough time, a system so screwed up, so unsustainable, was destined to collapse on itself. We’re not so different in the west today. Is it wise to think that this time is any different?

Having beaten consensus earnings and revenues, it seems that the momentum stock of the year is finally getting its come-uppance as it missed whisper numbers on earnings and deliveries:

*TESLA 3Q ADJ. EPS 12C, EST. 10C (whipser ~17c)

*TESLA FINISHED 3Q WITH SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5,500 DELIVERIES (whisper ~6,000)

*TESLA SEES 4Q NON-GAAP PROFITABILITY `CONSISTENT' WITH 3Q

This has sent the stocks down over 9% after-hours near 10 week lows... perhaps Musk was right after all.

Credit markets have been nervous for over a week. Treasury yields have been rising notably. The USD has been pushing higher and with all eyes focused on the momo name du jour (and indices 'near' all-time highs) it seems few have noticed US equities have actually had 3 down days in the last 5 days. Only NASDAQ managed a green close. Of course, this is merely an excuse buy moar with all the money on the sidelines but today's move in Treasuries (and intraday volatility in stocks) suggest some anxiety is back that a flow-slowing Taper is closer on the horizon of hope than many believe. Oil and Gold lost ground on the day - though the latter is the best of the commodities on the week. The USD is back to unchanged on the week (with CAD and EUR weakness in charge). VIX diverged higher into the close with its first up-day in the last six.

Ignoring the facts won't help us address the insolvency of pay-as-you-go social programs.

How Austrian economics is misguided

Well over a year ago, we first suggested that the conventional wisdom thesis for the bounce in home prices - namely a spurt in household formation - was dead wrong. Sure enough, as has been confirmed empirically, the only reason for the latest dead cat bounce in home prices has been the Fed, and banks complicit in engaging in "foreclosure stuffing." And while it was easy to deflect the topic of just what is driving the housing market (because none of the bulls would want to admit it is just another credit and liquidity-driven bubble) for over a year, with the traditional "things will be back to normal soon" fall back used every time, as time passed and none of the traditional ingredients for a housing recovery fell into place, some started scratching their heads. This came to a boiling point today, when real-estate firm Trulia, looking at the latest Census Bureau data on household formation, finally threw in the towel and rang the panic button as not only have young Americans set anchor in their parents' basement, but even refuse to get a job.

Turkey has been aggressively adding to its gold reserves in recent years and now has the world's 11th-largest gold reserves.

It would appear the main FOX News homepage has been hacked (most likely a DNS hack given some see no changes)... or perhaps this is what the mainstream media has become... "stuff yo!"... although the lack of slideshows and kittens suggests otherwise.

On the day when the CFTC begins considering 'speculative position limits', believed to be "the signal rule of [his] tenure at the Commission," Bart Chilton has had enough. Having "left traders in their own" during the shutdown, Chilton expressed "excitement" at his new endeavours after sending his resignation letter to President Obama this morning (more poetry? - or body doubles?) "I'm reminded of the old Etta James song, 'At Last,'" said Mr. Chilton, one of the agency's three Democratic members. "At last, we've got this rule here," and at last, he would be leaving the CFTC. This leaves us wondering whether Chilton, no longer burdened by the shackles of his meagre compensation, perhaps can finally do what he has been promising to do for years - become a whistleblower - after all he has insinuated so many times he knows where all the "dirt" is; unless, of course, it was all for show.

Global stock markets are soaring and near record highs. Credit markets are exuberant and near record tight spreads and low yields; and volatility (bond, FX, and stock) has been suppressed to the point of non-existence. So why is it that just 3 months after Nigeria issued debt (in an oversubscribed auction) at a yield below that of Portugal's, Nigerian lender Diamond Bank has suspended the launch of its seven-year $550 million bond? It appears it's the Fed's fault! as the bond's marketers noted "pricing turbulence in the international debt market," in a presentation seen by Reuters on Tuesday. Still think the Fed will ever actually exit?

As the S&P 500 continues to push to one new high after the next, the bullish arguments of valuation have quietly given way to "it's all about the Fed."  The biggest angst that weighs on professional, and retail investors alike, are not deteriorating economic strength, weak revenue growth or concerns over the next political drama - but rather when will the Fed pull its support from the financial markets. For the Federal Reserve, they are now caught in the same "liquidity trap" that has been the history of Japan for the last three decades.  Should we have an expectation that the same monetary policies employed by Japan will have a different outcome in the U.S?  More importantly, this is no longer a domestic question - but rather a global one since every major central bank is now engaged in a coordinated infusion of liquidity. Will the Federal Reserve "taper" in December or March - it's possible.  However, the revulsion by the markets, combined with the deterioration of economic growth, will likely lead to a quick reversal of any such a decision.

One quarter ago, when we performed our regular update on trends in US homeownership and rents, we said that "The American Homeownership Dream is officially dead. Long live the New Normal American Dream: Renting." What happened since then is that the American Dream briefly became a full-blown nightmare when in Q3 mortgage rates exploded, pummeling the affordability of housing, and ground any new mortgage-funded transactions to a complete halt (don't believe us - just ask the tens of thousands of mortgage brokers let go by the TBTF banks in the past 6 months). Which is why it was not at all surprising to find that the just updated Q3 homeownership rate has remained stuck at 65.1%: the lowest since 1995. And yet Americans have to live somewhere. That somewhere is as renters of Wall Street and other landlords. As the next chart shows, the median asking rent has once again risen in Q3, this time by just $1 from $735 to $736 per month.