Archive - Nov 2013

November 27th

GoldCore's picture

“Wave Of Disaster” Threatens U.S. Mortgage Market





It would likely also deal another blow to the U.S property market and the fragile U.S economy. JP Morgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo appear to be most exposed - meaning that either taxpayers will again be asked to bail out banks or more likely the coming bail-in regime will confiscate cash from depositors. 

 

Reggie Middleton's picture

The "Anti-Economist" Vs Paul Krugman Who Calls Bitcoin the Anti-Social Network





I know why someone who is so wrong can get so much media attention. My big question is why do so many "so-called" smart people actually believe him! We need a new, new media outlet, no?

 

Tyler Durden's picture

No CapEx Recovery: Durable Goods Disappoint As Capital Goods Orders And Shipments Decline





While the Census Bureau disclosed that headline Durable Goods declined in October by 2.0% (and much more on an unadjusted basis), this was in line with expectations, and was driven by an unexpected -15.9% collapse in new aircraft orders, driven by Boeing which had a 60% drop in orders, down from 127 to only 79 for the month. However, the big surprise was in the ex-transport durable goods number, which declined by -0.1%, crushing expectations of a 0.5% increase and down from last month's revised +0.2%. In other words, the modest rebound in orders in late summer now appears to have been purely a function of channel stuffing, which now has to work its way through the system, as manufacturing with unfilled orders dropped by a whopping -3.1%.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

"Clean" Initial Claims Drop To Lowest In 2 Months





Initial claims fell 10k from last week's revised (and missing 5 states) data for its biggest beat in 2 months and lowest print in 2 months. The 'consistent' YoY ebbing of the initial claims print (aside from the last month or so's statistical glitches and idiocy) is all too predictable and the market simply shrugged as the claims data remains the least correlated to any sense of employment reality of all jobs data. This is the first supposedly "clean" data with no estimates in 2 months, however, the BLS is quick to point out that "claims are difficult to seasonally adjust during holidays" - so another pinch of salt for this data point.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Iran Seizes Saudi Fishing Vessels, Arrests 9 Sailors





It didn't take long to escalate Iran-Saudi relations, or the lack thereof, following this weekend's nuclear (non) deal. Moments ago Iran's Fars news agency reported that Iran’s coast guards have seized two Saudi fishing vessels after they entered the Islamic Republic's territorial waters, a provincial official announced on Wednesday. “Yesterday, the coast guards deployed in the country’s Southern waters came to spot two vessels in Iran’s protected waters in the South using electronic and optic tools and equipment,” Commander of Bushehr province Coast Guards Qalandar Lashkari said. He said that the Iranian coast guards rushed to the scene and were faced with two vessels which were illegally fishing in the Iranian waters under the Saudi flag.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: November 27





  • Winter storm lashes eastern U.S., threatens Thanksgiving travel (Reuters)
  • Fed Reveals New Concerns About Long-Term U.S. Slowdown (BBG)
  • Private equity keeps $789bn of powder dry (FT) - because they are "selling everything that is not nailed down"
  • Merkel and SPD clinch coalition deal two months after vote (Reuters)
  • Japan approves new state secrecy bill to combat leaks (BBC)
  • CLOs are the new black: Volatile Loan Securities Are Luring Fund Managers Again (WSJ)
  • Health website deadline nears (WSJ)
  • Norway Debates $800 Billion Wealth Fund’s Investment Options (BBG)
  • Set of global trade deals stalls (WSJ)
  • Berlusconi To Learn Fate In Senate  (Sky)
  • Silvio Berlusconi withdraws support from Italy’s government (FT)
 

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman Reveals "Top Trade" Reco #3 For 2014, In Which Tom Stolper Goes Long The USDCAD





It's one thing to fade broad Goldman trade recommendations (and thus trading alongside Goldman and against muppets). It is, however, a gift from god when such a trade comes from none other than the greatest (once again, if you bat 0.000 or 1.000 on Wall Street you are great in both cases) FX strategist of all time: Goldman's Tom Stolper, whose fades over the past 5 years have generated over 20,000 outright pips. So what does Stolper see? "All told, there are a number of reasons why the Canadian Dollar has scope to weaken. Some of these have been a factor for some time but the notable weakening in the external balance, the gradual shift in the BoC communication and the prospect of Fed tapering and the associated risks all suggest that 2014 may be the year when the CAD weakens more materially after many years in narrow trading ranges. In line with our recently changed forecasts, we expect $/CAD to rally to 1.14 on a 12-month basis, with a stop on a close below 1.01. This would imply a potential return of 7% including carry." So one Goldman 2014 Top Trade generates a total return of 7% in 12 months - and one should do this why when one can make 7% in the Russell 2000 at its current daily pace of increase of 1.0% in one week. That said, the only question is: 1.01 in how many days?

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Yen Carry Lifts Risk Around The Globe In Quiet Overnight Trade





In a carry-trade driven world in which news and fundamentals no longer matter, the only relevant "variable" is whether the JPY is down (check) and the EUR is up (check) which always results in green equities around the globe and green futures in the US, with yesterday's sudden and sharp selloff on no liquidity and no news long forgotten. The conventional wisdom "reason" for the overnight JPY underperformance against all major FX is once again due to central bank rhetoric, when overnight BOJ's Kiuchi sees high uncertainty whether 2% CPI will be reached in 2 years, Shirai says bank should ease further if growth, CPI diverge from main scenario. Also the BOJ once again hinted at more QE, and since this has proven sufficient to keep the JPY selling momentum, for now, why not continue doing it until like in May it stops working. As a result EURJPY rose above the 4 year high resistance of 138.00, while USDJPY is bordering on 102.00. On the other hand, the EUR gained after German parties strike coalition accord, pushing the EURUSD over 1.36 and further making the ECB's life, now that it has to talk the currency down not up, impossible. This is especially true following reports in the German press that the ECB is looking at introducing an LTRO in order to help promote bank lending. Since that rumor made zero dent on the EUR, expect the ongoing daily litany of ECB rumors that the bank is "technically ready" for negative rates and even QE, although as has been shown in recent months this now has a half-life measured in minutes as the market largely is ignoring whatever "tools" Draghi and company believe they have left.

 

Pivotfarm's picture

It’ll Snow-den in Time for Xmas





Edward Snowden has recently revealed that he has a secret cache of ‘doomsday’ material that will blow the world apart and the US in particular.

 

November 26th

Tyler Durden's picture

London's Mayor Says We Should "Thank The Super Rich"





If you thought you had seen it all when it comes to sob stories of the “super rich” following the comparison of the criticisms of banker bonuses to the lynching of black people in the south by AIG’s CEO in September, think again. The latest groveling, inane defense of the “super rich” comes from none other than the gatekeeper of the largest oligarch whorehouse on planet earth. The Mayor of London, Mr. Boris Johnson. Now we warn you, do not read the following Op-Ed on a full stomach. The vapid, nonsensical, Onion-like prose may very well induce fits of nausea and uncontrolled regurgitation. This is quite frankly one of the worst things we have ever read. It echoes like a sort of grandiose ass-kissing ritual one would have encountered in a Middle Age court from an aspiring manservant of the realm, desperately trying to rapidly advance a coupe of notches up the social strata of some decadent feudal kingdom. Simply put, Boris Johnson should be ashamed to show his face in public after writing such disingenuous garbage.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

CNBC Core Viewership Drops To Fresh Two Decade Low In November, Lowest Since 1993





According to the latest Nielsen Research data, in November, CNBC's core 25-54 demographic saw its fourth consecutive month of declines, and dropped to just 31,000 - a declined of over 40% from a year earlier, and the lowest since February 1993: a fresh 20 year low.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

"I Fear For What’s Coming" – 68% Of Americans Believe The Country Is On The Wrong Track





Are you deeply concerned about the future of America?  Is something in your gut telling you that our system is fundamentally broken and that the mainstream media is not telling you the truth about what is happening?  If so, you are definitely not alone.  Right now, there are millions upon millions of Americans that are absolutely horrified as they watch this nation deteriorate.  In fact, according to an analysis of recent polling data conducted by Real Clear Politics, approximately 68 percent of all Americans believe that the country is on the wrong track and only 23.5 percent of all Americans believe that the country is on the right track.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

53% Of Bankers Say Ethics Inhibit Career Progression - Here's Why





The Economist found, rather sadly, despite all the glad-handing and happy-talk, that 53% of financial services executives believed that strict adherence to ethical conduct would make career progression difficult. As this former Wall Street trader told The Guardian, "a precedent needs to be set, to slow down Wall Street's wild behavior. A reminder that rules are there to be followed, not exploited." The reason, among others, is summed up by the following, "if a customer wants a red suit, you sell them a red suit. If that customer is Japanese, you charge him twice what it costs."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Punch Line: The Complete Macroeconomic Summary And All The Chart To Go With It





As stocks hit new records and small investors—finally—return to the market, some analysts are getting worried. Risk assets have rallied to previous bubble conditions. Powered by unprecedented refinancing and recap activity, 2013 is now the most productive year ever for new-issue leveraged loans, for example. This has been great for corporations as financing and refinancing has put them on a stronger footing. Where M&A activity still lags the highs of the last boom, issuers have jumped into the opportunistic pool with both feet. And why not? Secondary prices are high and new-issue clearing yields remain low. Yet very inadequate movement has been evidenced on the hiring front. And after all the improvement in ebitda, where do we go from here? Forward guidance will clearly be harder. One might argue that we are back in a Goldilocks fantasy world, where the economy is not so strong (as to cause inflation and trigger serious monetary tightening) or so weak (as to cause recession and a collapse in profits) but "just right". Yet, it seems unlikely that issuers with weaker credit quality could find it so easy to sell debt without the excess liquidity created by the Fed and other central banks.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Top Ten Market Mysteries





To paraphrase Mark Twain, "It isn't the stuff you don’t know that will kill you – it's the stuff you're sure about but is totally wrong that will do you real harm."  As a corollary to this fateful phrase, Convergx's Nick Colas has collected a list of market "knowledge" that is questionable at best and harmful at worst.

 
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