Archive - Dec 19, 2013

Among other things, the month of November was memorable because for the first time, Caterpillar - that bellwether of the old industrial economy in which "stuff" was actually made, dug out of the ground, erected, or otherwise processed instead of merely hosted ad impressions - posted declining retail sales in every region around the globe. This was the first time of uniform declining retail sales since February 2010. To say that this data conflicts massively with all the rumors, fairytales and lies about a global recovery, is an understatement which is why it has not been mentioned anywhere, in hopes the subsequent month would demonstrate some improvement and perhaps an upward inflection point. That did not happen. Moments ago CAT released its November dealer retail sales: for the second time in a row CAT posted negative retail sales across the world, with total retail sales down a whopping 12%.

Russia's MICEX jumped almost 1% this morning on news that Vladimir Putin had asked for clemency in the jailing of vocal Kremlin critic, Yukos founder Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Khodorkovsky has been jailed since 2003 on a variety of tax-evasion, fraid and embezzlement charges though being among the nation's wealthiest men, the jailing was seen as politically-motivated (because of his political ambitions). The WSJ reports that Putin said this morning, "He asked for a pardon for humanitarian reasons, his mother is sick, and I believe that we can make a decision and will soon sign a decree to pardon him." The twist in this tale is that Khodorkovsky's people deny the pardon request, since Putin's spin would be the pardon request implies an admission of guilt...

Despite yesterday's somewhat lackluster response, treasury bond yields are breaking bad this morning with 5Y up 13bps from the Fed taper (and 10Y at 2.94%). But it is gold (and silver) prices that have been monkey-hammered with the former trading below $1200 briefly - its lowest in 6 months.

Gold's sell off was again due to paper gold selling by traders and speculators as there was little increase in selling by owners of bullion. Arguably, the fed's tiny taper is bullish for gold as the Fed confirmed that ultra loose monetary policies and the unprecedented zero percent interest policies are set to continue under Janet Yellen. 

For everyone who shrugged off last week's enormous spike in initial jobless claims as "can't be real", the BLS has another "holiday volatility"-blamed statistical anomaly for traders to ignore. Initial claims rose 10k to 379k - dramatically worse than the 336k expectation - and the worst since March. Though the BLS says no states estimated jobless claims last week, they would suggest, ever so humbly, that we ignore this data and focus on the trend of the 4-week moving average. Total benefit rolls also rose to 3 month highs, up 94k to 2.88 million. The piece de resistance - non-seasonally-adjusted initial claims were down 48.2k (against the seasonally-adjusted 10k), yet both are up exactly 13k from a year ago (seems the Sandy-based YoY adjustments are playing havoc). Lastly, 1,374,031 American on Emergency Unemployment Compensation (ie. extended benefits) - which are about to run out thanks to Congress (which will implicitly send the unemployment rate plunging).

What is $55 trillion between friends? Very little according to the CFTC. In perhaps the biggest under the radar news of the day - to be expected with every watercooler occupied by taper experts - the WSJ reports that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Wednesday that technical errors at two so-called swaps data repositories, which collect and supply regulators with transaction data, have led the CFTC to misreport the overall size of the swaps market by undercounting its size. Isn't it curious how all these "glitches" always work out in the favor of preserving market calm and confidence and away from spooking investors and speculators? Either way, a better question is how big was the so called undercounting? The answer: as large as $55 trillion!

If yesterday's price action in the moments following (and preceding) the FOMC announcement was just a little suspicious, with a seemingly endless supply of VIX selling originating as if from nowhere (or perhaps the 9th floor of Liberty 33) the morning after has so far been a snoozer. Perhaps this is to be expected following the third biggest one-day surge in the stock market in the year (1st =  Jan 2nd, 2nd = October 10th), or perhaps the market is finally focusing on Bernanke's tongue in cheek suggestion that the taper may be lowered by $10 billion per month (we disagree as described previously). Or perhaps the creep higher in 10 Year yields, at 2.915% at last check and just shy of the 3.00% psychological level, is finally being noticed. Or perhaps the fact that China, very surprisingly, is also tapering concurrently is finally being appreciated as is the fact that despite all talk of preparedness, developing economies were hardly left unscathed following yesterday's development. Whatever the reason, the euphoria this morning has "tapered."

We think not as increasing signs of corporate distress in China will weigh on emerging market growth.

The history books will not look kindly on this neglect.

• Traders Seek an Edge With High-Tech Snooping (WSJ)
• Gold Drops Below $1,200 an Ounce for First Time Since June (Bloomberg)
• SAC Manager Guilty as Insider Focus Turns to Martoma (Bloomberg)
• Why Ukraine spurned the EU and embraced Russia (Reuters)
• Target confirms major card data theft during Thanksgiving (Reuters)
• Zuckerberg is no suckerberg: Company to Sell 27 Million Class A Shares While CEO Will Offer 41.4 Million (WSJ)
• Facebook, Zuckerberg, banks must face IPO lawsuit (Reuters)
• Swiss Christmas Trees Feel Chill as Franc Helps Rivals (BBG)
• Iran, six powers to resume nuclear talks after snag (Reuters)
• Dolphins Suffering From Lung Disease Due to Gulf Oil Spill, Study Says (WSJ)

Strategists were largely wrong about the yes taper in September, and then they were just as largely wrong about the no taper in December, and yet their opinion is just as largely gospel and people continue to listen to them (what else is there to be distracted by in a still very much centrally-planned market and economy). Which is why the below summary by Bloomberg of what global financial strategists and investors, also known as "they", are saying about how to trade assets in the post-taper world, should probably be taken, largely, with a grain of salt.

Official White House Spying Panel Implies that It Might Be …