Archive - Dec 9, 2013

From Bernanke's infamous 2008 "not forecasting a recession" call to Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines 2004 "subprime assets are riskless" commentary, the following 10 "predictions" - as opposed to Wien "surprises" - will go down in infamy for their degree of errant-ness...

Japan's PM Shinzo Abe has seen his approval ratings collapse for the first time since his 'devalue-to-glory' strategy was unveiled a year ago. Kyodo News reported, support for Mr. Abe fell 10.3ppt to 47.6%, while Japan News Network reported a 13.9-point fall to 54.6% as WSJ reports, public concern over the controversial secrecy bill (designed by Kafka, inspired by Hitler) and its nationalist overtones merely exacerbated Japanese people's concerns about their pocketbooks (as incomes stagnate and costs rise). As Abe plays lip service to economic issues (with a very Maduro-like speech recently on profit margins and wage increases), there is little but public outrage to hinder his plans as his ruling Liberal Democratic Party has big majorities in both houses of parliament, with no election scheduled until 2016. So much for Abenomics...

The current malaise of news, data, and spin is "meaningless," David Stockman tells Bloomberg's Tom Keene, adding that markets are exhibiting "the kind of speculative froth you get at the top of a cycle where valuation loses any anchor in the real world; from earnings or the prospects of the economy." As he argued before, "owning stocks here is very dangerous," and despite Keene's best efforts to denigrate Stockman's "of course it's a bubble," perspective; the former inside-man exposes the hard mathematical truths of valuations, performance, and reality in this brief clip. Who is to blame - The Fed or Wall Street? "It is a question of who has taken whom hostage," Stockman concludes ominously, "it's a co-dependency... it's very dangerous."

"If you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it."  Sadly, that appears to be the approach that the Obama administration and the mainstream media are taking with the U.S. economy.  They seem to believe that if they just keep telling the American people over and over that things are getting better, eventually the American people will believe that it is actually true. And of course the reality of the matter is that we should have seen some sort of an economic recovery by now.  Those running our system have literally been mortgaging the future in a desperate attempt to try to pump up our economic numbers.  The federal government has been on the greatest debt binge in U.S. history and the Federal Reserve has been printing money like crazed lunatics.  All of that "stimulus" should have had some positive short-term effects on the economy. Sadly, all of those "emergency measures" do not appear to have done much at all.

"Mediocrity," it would appear (based on their actions), is the new "excellence"...

Although the U.S. stock market continues to hit new nominal highs on a nearly daily basis, the U.S. economy bumps along at a lackluster pace. This disconnect has been achieved by a massive Fed experiment in monetary stimulation. Through the combination of seemingly endless maintenance of zero interest rates and the injection of some $1trillion a year of synthetic money into fixed-income markets, the Fed is hoping that the boom it is creating on Wall Street will lead to a boom on Main Street. In reality, this a very dangerous economic gamble of enormously high stakes.  As we have seen in the recent past, financial bubbles can leave catastrophe in their wake.

If you BTFATH today, this is the forward-looking fundamental backdrop that is supporting your decision...

What do you do if you have more money than you can ever spend, and own residences in most major metropolises around the world. You invest in the most exclusive "third" (or fourth, or fifth) vacation "house" that can be purchased by people for whom money is no object, such as the $1 billion Faena Miami Beach, which has lined up as buyers none other than the creme of the (bailed out courtesy of a multi-trillion ongoing taxpayer bailout) Wall Street crop including Apollo's Leon Black, and of course Goldman's very own resident of a duplex in 15 CPW, Lloyd Blankfein. The Faena oceanfront development for the megarich is financed by another billionaire, chairman of Access Industries, Len Blavatnik, whose $16.1 billion net worth puts him 49th in the Bloomberg Billionaires index. This is what Lloyd and company will buy with the Fed's "wealth effect."

“In 1960, about one in four renters paid more than 30% of income for housing. Today, one in two are cost burdened,” according to a new study (ironically) by Harvard University. As Bloomberg BusinessWeek's Peter Coy notes, the availability of apartments, especially cheaper ones, hasn’t nearly kept up with demand, and the problem has worsened since the 2007-09 recession. Remarkably, the number or people with severe cost burdens (paying over 50% of income to rent) is up by 2.5 million in just four years, to 11.3 million; and as usual, the pinch is hardest on the poor. The share of cost-burdened renters increased by a stunning 12 percentage points between 2000 and 2010, the largest jump in any decade dating back at least to 1960.

Bereft of holiday gift ideas for the greater-fool in your house? Too much hard multiple-expanded cash burning a binary hole in your Prime Broker's servers? Then spend it all on what will truly set you above the rest of the 0.1% - the following two lovely unicorns.

The WSJ has revealed the latest developments of tomorrow's "fluid" Volcker Rule vote on prop trading:

• Volcker Rule Will Bar Compensation Arrangements That Reward Proprietary Trading, Rule Text Says
• Rule Will Exempt Foreign Sovereign Debt From Proprietary Trading Ban, According To Rule Text Reviewed By Wall Street Journal

In other words, prop trading itself will not be explicitly barred, just associated compensation (and banks can still buy as much Italian and Spanish bonds for their accounts as they want). Which means banks can engage in as much prop trading as they wish (which courtesy of $2.4 trillion in excess deposits aka excess reserves is a lot) and bang as much VIX closes as they desire, they just need to have trader bonus "arranagements" to be tied to something else. Like make-believe flow trading which can be manipulated to show anything and everything.

The spin does not get any better than this... As they reported they would,

• *LEW SAYS U.S. SOLD ALL REMAINING SHARES OF GENERAL MOTORS RECOUPING $39 BLN OF ORIGINAL GM INVESTMENT

That is a $10.5 Billion loss! But, The Center for Automotive Research, a Michigan nonprofit organization that analyzes auto industry issues, those funds “saved or avoided the loss of $105.3 billion in transfer payments and the loss of personal and social insurance tax collections -- or 768% of the net investment.” We can't wait to hear how much Bill Ackman made or saved on his Herbalife investment...

Much has been written recently about the rigged London "gold fixing" process, during which, as even Bloomberg recently covered, the price of gold is blatantly manipulated. One thing was, however, missing: a photo of the fixers in practice. Today, courtesy of German WiWo, we show just what said "fixing" looks like in real life every single day.

WTF was this!!??

Following Friday's exuberance, US equity markets traded in an extraordinarily narrow range today (Dow's 41 points is lowest in 16 months) as S&P futures had the lowest non-holiday volume day of the year - despite plethora of Fed talking heads. Treasuries were no less un-vibrant with a 2bp range ending with the short-end very modestly higher in yield and long-end -1bps. The USD closed lower with its only sizable move driven by Bullard's dovish comments on inflation credibility; most notably US equities ignored JPY crosses efforts to ignite momentum. VIX was smashed lower at the close (back to inverted). The big movers on the day were in commodity-land. WTI dipped but Brent was slammed as the spread dropped notably to 6-week lows. Gold (and even more so Silver) were the big winners (relatively speaking) ending the day +1 and +2.2% respectively. Oh and TWTR went bull retard...