Archive - Dec 2013

The following graphic from @Amazing_Maps struck us in its stunning comparison between Greater London and the Greater Tokyo Area superimposed over England.

• Apple, China Mobile sign long-awaited deal to sell iPhones (Reuters)
• U.S. growth hopes help shares shrug off China money market jitters (Reuters)
• Rule Change on Health Insurance Rattles Industry (WSJ), Obamacare's signup deadline on Monday has its exceptions (Reuters)
• Tale of Two Polish Mines Shows Biggest EU Producer’s Woes (BBG)
• Probes See U.K. Market Manipulation Reports Rise 43% (BBG)
• Shoppers Grab Sweeter Deals in Last-Minute Holiday Dash (BBG)
• Banks Mostly Avoid Providing Bitcoin Services (WSJ)
• Secret Handshakes Greet Frat Brothers on Wall Street (BBG)

Anyone who had the pleasure of trading the long bond March future ZB H4 just before 1:40 am Central witnessed one of the more abnormal fat fingers seen in recent months, one that did not involve equities but instead was all bond.... long bond, which soared from 130 to over 135, after a large clip was traded on what was apparently an erroneous buy order put through during very illiquid trading. Then again, with no trades busted by the CME (yet), maybe it was intentional.

Another day, another low volume overnight meltup to record highs in equity futures. Stocks traded higher in Europe this morning, with tech stocks outperforming following reports that Apple has finally secured a deal to bring the iPhone to China Mobile, which has more than 750 million subscribers. As a result, the likes of ARM Holdings and STMicro traded with gains of over 2% and Apple's German listing traded up  around 2.5%. At the same time, French CAC index under performed its peers, with Technip among the worst performing stocks after being removed from Goldman's Sustained Focus List. Addtionally, over the weekend, the ECB's Praet said that the ECB is ready to intervene if credit contracts - and since Euro credit is contracting at a record pace, we wonder what he is waiting for. This happened as Fitch affirmed France at AA+, outlook stable. Looking elsewhere, thin trading conditions resulted in an aggressive spike higher in CME US 30y futures this morning after a large clip was traded, which consequently saw the exchange adjust prices lower, but did not bust any trades.

UPDATE: 7-day repo is now up 220bps at 980bps - as the "liquidity crisis" is worse than any other seasonal effect on record

How do you "fix" a nations' banking system's increasingly desperate need (and dependence upon) for government-provided liquidity without giving in and just providing all the inflation-stoking liquidity the banks demand? Simple - in China - you ban the media from discussing it. As The FT reports, Chinese propaganda officials have ordered financial journalists and some media outlets to tone down their coverage of a liquidity crunch in the interbank market, in a sign of how worried Beijing is that the turmoil will continue. The censors have warned reporters not to "hype" the multiple-sigma spikes in overnight-funding rates and have forbidden the press from using the Chinese words for "cash crunch."

A new report from UBS finds that renewable energy and energy storage are together presenting a “perfect storm” for big utilities. The declining cost of solar, energy efficiency, and electric vehicle technologies threaten to upend centralized electricity generation, putting the utility business model in jeopardy. Grid parity has already been achieved in certain parts of the world where conventional electricity rates are high and renewable resources are plentiful.

Because there is no more impressive way to mourn celebrate the depression recovery, than to get increasingly more hammered at a 10% Year over Year growth pace.

The notion that individual conviction and bravery is a #MassiveFail when compared to a machine gun nest seems obvious and trite to us today. Strangely enough, though, when it comes to prevalent notions of market behavior it feels like we’re still in 1936. What I mean is that there is still a dominant belief in individual decision-making as the most effective route to successful investing, that if we could just learn a little bit more about Company X or Sector Y we will win the day. Is your individual knowledge and conviction level in Company X important for investing success? Absolutely, in exactly the same way that physical and psychological bravery is important for war-fighting success. Still more important, though, is the strength and cohesion of the groups that share your investment philosophy. Not your specific investment opinions, any more than one soldier has the same amount and type of instantiated bravery as another soldier in his unit, but the coherence of investment goals and operational practices across your fellow market participants in a particular market segment.

The last time China's birdflu epidemic dominated the ether, and internet, was in April, when news of numerous casualties led many to believe that the epidemic was on the verge of breaching all local containment measures. And then, suddenly, all media coverage of China's H7N9 story disappeared as if by Department of Truth (and propaganda) magic. Naturally, the quick popular response was to assume that all was again well since the government no longer made it a notable topic - just like the Japanese government did with Fukushima. However, as in the case of Fukushima, it turns out all may not have been well. As Japan's NHK reports, H7N9 bird flu strain is once again spreading in southern China, claiming the 148th victim of the vicious flu virus. Or perhaps instead of "once again" it was simply "constantly."

Unlike stocks, which see rising prices met with apparently rising demand, it appears the natural laws of supply and (lack of) demand have come to weigh on Alan Greenspan's latest un-mea-culpa. As we noted previously, even at a steeply deflationary 40% off, The Map and The Territory seems 'expensive' and for once, the maestro is unable to blow a bubble in this particular "asset's" value.

Just shy of the new year, financial markets continue to be dominated by the extent of monetary accommodation. Especially in major advanced economies, bonds and stocks have shrugged off the summer sell-off and posted gains on the view that low policy rates and large-scale asset purchases would persist longer. Much attention has been given to the hope of a strengthening in the U.S. economy. In Abe Gulkowitz' latest The PunchLine letter, he highlights the key elements from a very slowly improving labor market to the amazing moves in asset markets with 'all the charts you can eat' in between. The unnatural easing stance, though necessary, spurred an aberrant demand for assets in the riskier end of the spectrum. By and large, such assets have so far lived up to their promise. The new year may again challenge that assumption as the likelihood of unlikely events rises.

Once gold goes into China’s vault, it’s like going into a black hole. 

Massachusetts State police have seized more than 1200 packets of heroin following a traffic stop in the town of Hatfield. CNN reports three people face charges of conspiracy to violate drug laws and possession charges; but in an effort to distinguish their particular 'brand' of addictive chemical, the providers labeled the stash 'Obamacare'. As the police note, "It's just a branding so you can say if this brand is good or bad." - we wonder which?

Hired guns receive staggering fortunes to write fourth-rate code, and it shows. The federal ObamaCare web site exceeded the billion dollar mark a while ago, and dozens of states have had to create their own web sites. The state of my residence, California, is one of these, and their site is Covered California (which is littered, as you might guess, with images of all kinds of "diverse" families - - I'm just waiting to hit the page where the family represented is a white man, a black guy, and they're both in wheelchairs).