Archive - Jan 2013
January 30th
The Chart That Keeps RIMM Shareholders Up At Night, And BlackBerry 10 Launch
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 09:48 -0500
As the world awaits the launch of the iBlackberry 10 this morning, we thought some reflection on the hope that is priced into RIMM's shares in comparison to the reality on the ground. The trends below will need violent distortion if the new BustBerry is to win and Thorsten Heins dreams come true... if you build it? Though, as Bloomberg notes, IDC estimates that RIMM will only have 4.1% of the market by 2016 - little changed from today..."The low-hanging fruit is the BlackBerry faithful, after that, they bump up against the Android and Apple users out there."
US Ends 2012 With 103.8% Debt To GDP
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 09:38 -0500Previously, when calculating debt/GDP metrics for the US, we naturally assumed some GDP growth in Q4. Following today's GDP data we now know what Q4 GDP is. We also know that, at least on a preliminary basis, it posted a decline on an annualized basis. This means that we now have an official print for US Debt/GDP as of December 31, 2012. The numerator, or debt: $16.432 trillion, or the debt ceiling, which as we know was breached on the same day, and which has yet to be formally raised. The denominator, or GDP: $15.829 trillion. This means that the formal debt/GDP is now 103.8% and growing fast.
DeaR SeNaToRS GRaSSLeY aND BRoWN...
Submitted by williambanzai7 on 01/30/2013 09:31 -0500Here is the picture that answers all the queries stated in your letter.
Why Isn't Gold Higher?
Submitted by RickAckerman on 01/30/2013 09:27 -0500My colleague and erstwhile nemesis Gonzalo Lira posed the question above in a recent essay, and it is indeed a most puzzling one. Given that the world’s central banks — joined most recently by a shockingly reckless Switzerland — are waging all-out economic war by inflating their currencies, shouldn’t gold be soaring?
Why Economists Get Things Wrong
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 09:23 -0500
Following today's 3-sigma miss in GDP by the greatest and goodest economists of the world, we thought David McWilliams brief 'Punk Economics' clip on "why economists get things wrong" was particularly appropriate. With Mark Zandi's "this didn't really happen" comment this morning on GDP, McWilliams starts by warning of the most dangerous of economic soothsayers - the overconfident and over-optimistic forecaster. Perhaps, he notes, the Queen was on to something when she asked (about the crisis), "why didn't you see this coming? ...and why should I listen to you now?" The key fact driving economists' inability to predict the future is a lack of understanding of the present thanks to the "complete and utter nonsense" that economists see the world as rational - which, he shows, we certainly are not. There is no economics for emotions, exuberances, impulses, or frenzies (as is all too clear currently). We simply don't learn from our mistakes and always believe this time will be different. Indeed...
Chart Of The Quarter: $312 Billion In Debt "Adds" Negative $5 Billion In GDP
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 08:59 -0500
What was it about the law of diminishing Fed stimulus returns again? But don't worry: "the market is up." Because if $165 billion in Q4 stimulus could not even generate a positive GDP return, at least it sent the Russell 2000 soaring.
The Removal Of 'Event Risk'
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 08:50 -0500
The removal of “event risk” is the bottom line which defines the markets currently and which is why there is such a large disparity between economic fundamentals and the markets’ collective reaction. Short and sweet; risk has subsided or at least that is the common perception. This does not mean that the collective thinking is correct or even that it will be the “collective thinking” for long. The lack of a “fear factor” will push “relative valuations” in new directions which will impact the Dollar/Euro ratio causing even greater financial issues for Europe and higher Treasury yields will impact not just bonds with credit risk but equities as a matter of comparison. Yields in Europe, which went down because of the Draghi promise coupled with our great slosh of capital and the “delay, defer and postpone” mindset of the Europeans may begin to rise again because of other factors which primarily would be their “relative valuations” against their American counterparts. The lack of “event risk” has two sides and two sets of consequences.
Shrinkage: US Economy Declined By -0.1% In Q4
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 08:40 -0500
A stunner out of the BEA which just reported a Q4 GDP of -0.1% that was leaps and bounds below the 1.1% estimate, and a plunge from Q3's 3.1%. The factors: Private Inventories, Exports and Government Expenditures all of which contracted, by -1.27%, -0.81%, and -1.33%. The silver lining was in Personal Consumption Expenditures which added 1.52% to the negative print, most of it however driven by a surge in spending ahead of the fiscal cliff. Ironically, this was the biggest government-driven detraction from growth since Q1 2011, when GDP led to a -1.49% cut in the GDP, same in Q4 when government spending on defense fell the most since 1972. The solution is simple: print moar drones. Enter Mali. And since everything is now AMZN-ing, we can't wait for the spin that the GDP's margins were actually better than expected, leading to a 200 point surge in the DJIA.
Noisy ADP, aka "BLS For Dummies", Beats, Last Month Revised Much Lower
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 08:25 -0500
ADP may have changed its methodology, wiping out a few hundred thousand 2012 jobs in the process, but its predictive track record remains the same: lousy. In December, the private payroll counter "reported" some 215,000 private job gains, well above expectations and about 50,000 more than the BLS reported two days later. Today, ADP was expected to print far lower, or at 165,000, and once again we got a major beat, this time January data apparently soaring to 192K, yet at the same time the utterly meaningless December data was revised far lower, from 215K to 185K just to be inline with the BLS. Expect this number, too, to be revised lower as it usually tends to be, following a weaker than implied BLS payroll number. Of note: seven consecutive drops in manufacturing jobs: so much for that Obama promise to double manufacturing jobs in 5 years or whatever it was. Judging by the market's non response to today's latest ADP number, we are not the only ones who see Mark Zandi's pet seasonal-adjustment project as nothing more than a monthly joke.
Swiss Banks Now Offer Allocated Gold, Silver Accounts
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 07:59 -0500Swiss banks, UBS and Credit Suisse, have moved to offer allocated gold and silver accounts to their clients – including high net worth, hedge funds, other banks and institutions. The move allows these entities to take direct ownership of their bullion in allocated accounts. According to the Financial Times, the banks say that they are making the move in order to reduce exposure and risks on balance sheets and in an effort to be more transparent. “Under more common "unallocated" gold accounts, depositors' bullion appears on the banks' balance sheets, forcing them to increase their capital reserves. Like their global peers, UBS and Credit Suisse are under pressure from regulators to reduce capital-intensive activities ahead of the introduction of new Basel III global banking rules.” It is more likely that the banks made the move to allocated storage due to an increased preference from their investors who are weary of continuing systemic risk.
Frontrunning: January 30
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 07:43 -0500- Barack Obama
- Boeing
- Chesapeake Energy
- China
- Citigroup
- Commercial Real Estate
- Credit Suisse
- Crude
- CSCO
- Dell
- Deutsche Bank
- Dow Jones Industrial Average
- Dreamliner
- Evercore
- Ford
- Fox Business
- Housing Prices
- Illinois
- India
- Iraq
- Japan
- JetBlue
- Lennar
- Mexico
- Monte Paschi
- Morgan Stanley
- Natural Gas
- New Orleans
- Newspaper
- Proposed Legislation
- Raymond James
- RBS
- Real estate
- recovery
- Reuters
- Risk Management
- SAC
- Swiss Banks
- Tobin Tax
- Wall Street Journal
- Wells Fargo
- Yuan
- Boeing misses Q4 top line ($22.3 bn, Exp. $22.33 bn) beats EPS ($1.28, Exp. $1.18), guides lower: 2013 revenue $82-85 bn, Exp. 87.9 bn
- Hilsenrath discovers DV01: Fed Risks Losses From Bonds (WSJ)
- Airlines had 787 battery issues before groundings (Reuters)
- Monte Paschi ignored warnings over risk, documents show (Reuters) as did Mario Draghi
- China averts local government defaults (FT)
- Economy Probably Slowed as U.S. Spending Gain Drained Stockpiles (Bloomberg)
- Bono Is No Match for Retail Slump Hitting Dublin’s Fifth Avenue (BBG)
- Catalonia requests €9bn from rescue fund (FT)
- US plans more skilled migrant visas (FT)
- Japan PM shrugs off global criticism over latest stimulus steps (Reuters)
- CIA nominee had detailed knowledge of "enhanced interrogation techniques" (Reuters)
- Cleanliness Meets Godliness as Russia Reeled Into Cyprus (BBG)
- Deutsche Bank Seen Missing Goldman-Led Gains on Cost Rise (BBG)
The Honey Badger Market Grinds Higher
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 07:09 -0500
The honey badger ramp continues, once more driven entirely by the USD carry as both the EURUSD and USDJPY hit new highs (14 month and 3 year, respectively). The EUR took another major leg higher following today's second ECB refinancing operation in two days, a 3 month LTRO, in which just €3.71 billion was allotted to some 46 bidders, far less than the €10 billion expected particularly in the context of the €6 billion the matured, leading to further Euribor curve steepening, more non-expansion of the ECB balance sheet, and a surge in the EURUSD to new post-2011 highs of 1.3560. But if it wasn't this it would be something else. Elsewhere we got the final official Spanish GDP number, which as previously reported once again came worse than expected at -0.7%, compared to expectations of -0.6%, and -1.8% Y/Y vs Exp. -1.7%. But once again we are told to ignore current reality and look with optimism to the future as various European confidence indices posted higher than expected prints. This seems logical: when the ugly fundamentals don't matter, one must at least pretend there is hope they will improve in the future to serve as a buying catalyst. Finally, and what the surging EUR and crushed exports are all about, Italy sold some €6.5 billion in 5 and 10 year BTPs at yields of 2.94% and 4.17%, both respectively lower than the prior auctions of 3.26% and 4.48%.
RANsquawk EU Market Re-Cap - 30th January 2013
Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 01/30/2013 06:45 -0500Interest Rates Drive Divergence in FX
Submitted by Marc To Market on 01/30/2013 06:28 -0500There has been a tightening of European financial conditions. Two more pieces of evidence were reported today. This issue may very well overshadow other issues at Draghi's press conference next week. German 2-year rates are moving above the US-- a 30 bp swing since early Dec. Meanwhile, US rates are rising relative to Japan. The dollar-bloc (and sterling) continue to under-perform. We also look at the US economic calendar for the day that features the ADP employment estimate, the first look at Q4 GDP and the conclusion of the FOMC meeting.
January 29th
Frankrupt Damage Control "France Is A Truly Solvent Country, France Is A Truly Credible Country"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/29/2013 21:22 -0500
In a move farcically reminiscent of Inspector Clouseau, the French Finance Minister made an impromptu appearance on the BBC to confirm what we all should have known all along: that "France is a truly solvent country, France is a truly credible country." As the Washington Post notes, the oh-so-honest faux-pas that enfant terrible Monsieur Michel Sapin made yesterday - explaining how his nation is "totally bankrupt" - had French politicos scrambling today to recover their je ne sais pas. It would appear the crisis management approach taken is the repetitive Jedi mind-trick and of course we should believe Moscovici - even as France faces near-record unemployment, ratings downgrades, fiscal atrophication thanks to a plunge in competitiveness, and backlash among the elites at its increasingly socialist policies. "This is not the France you are looking for," and sure enough, now we believe them.







