Archive - Feb 20, 2013

Tyler Durden's picture

America's TBTF Bank Subsidy From Taxpayers: $83 Billion Per Year





Day after day, whenever anyone challenges the TBTF banks' scale, they are slammed down with a mutually assured destruction message that limitations would impair profitability and weaken the country's position in global finance. So what if you were to discover, based on Bloomberg's calculations, that the largest banks aren't really profitable at all? What if the billions of dollars they allegedly earn for their shareholders were almost entirely a gift from U.S. taxpayers? The stunning truth is that the top-five banks account for $64 billion of an implicit subsidy based on the ludicrous (but entirely real) logic that: The banks that are potentially the most dangerous can borrow at lower rates, because creditors perceive them as too big to fail. Once shareholders fully recognized how poorly the biggest banks perform without government support, they would be motivated to demand better. The market discipline might not please executives, but it would certainly be an improvement over paying banks to put us in danger.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

In The Strange Case Of Gold's Regular Morning Mugging





We noted yesterday the strange intraday pattern emerging in Silver price movements - the alarmingly predictable morning takedown of the precious metals when the NYMEX opens. It's a reality that we need to be eyes wide open about, as it underscores the challenges of being long in an asset that powerful players don't want to appreciate. And while it's important to understand the risks in play here (e.g. these raids may continue for longer than we think possible), we emphasize the importance for precious metal owners to hold fast with the courage of their convictions - ultimately fundamentals will prevail and gold and silver prices will rise to their true levels. So, if you decide to bet on the continued success of the status quo, your choices are easy: Get in the paper markets and go long. The Fed will be adding $85 billion of liquidity rocket fuel each month for the rest of the year to push the prices of your paper investments even higher. But if you choose the fundamentals, here are a few important guidelines to keep in mind.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Cashin, Klarman, & Marks: "Un-abating Risks Of Collapse"





One can spend all day watching financial media channels stuffed full of self-promoting index-hugging asset-managers and be left with the belief that all is well and that the market does indeed represent our reality... Or, as UBS' Art Cashin notes today (confirming what we first published a month ago - here, here, and here), there is more (well less) to today's global economy and markets than meets the eye or rests in the headlines. His excellent diatribe today reiterates our previous comments of investing icons such as Baupost's Seth Klarman and Oaktree's Howard Marks that "(The) underpinnings of our economy and financial system are so precarious that the un-abating risks of collapse dwarf all other factors."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Step Aside Apple: Presenting The Hedge Fund World's Newest Most Widely Held Stock





Quarter after quarter we would recap the hedge fund world's infatuation with one stock and one stock alone: Apple. This inverse-mormon love affair hit its peak in the quarter ended September 30, when a record number of hedge funds were invested in AAPL stock. This was also the quarter when AAPL hit its all time high price and has since proceeded to slump by nearly 40% in four short months. Which was to be expected: hedge fund hotels always become flaming death traps when the sucker rally finally ends and what so many mistook and goalseeked for fundamentals, ended up being merely euphoria and momentum chasing as one after another marginal buyer put their money into a stock that seemingly could do no wrong or so we were told day after day. As of December 31, AAPL is no longer the darling of hedge fund groupthink. In its place we have a new hedge fund hotel.   Presenting: AIG, which with 80 hedge funds reporting it as a Top 10 holding (compared to GOOG with 73, and AAPL with 67), is now the stock that has suckered in the most hedge fund capital, and where any future growth will depend solely on pulling incremental dumb money in.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Jobs & The Economy - This Time It's No Different





Following the FOMC's schizophrenic minutes, we thought it topical to look at how history has treated divergences between a lagging jobs market and a leading indicator (new orders) of the real economy. It appears that since the debt super-cycle began, the real economy has downshifted before the jobs market with CEOs finally giving in to slowing growth and laying people off soon after... of course, this time could be different - as we are sure to be told...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Who's Living Large in Retirement?





Who fares better in retirement, pensioners or folks who saved up their own respective nest eggs? If you look at the numbers, you might be surprised to learn who's really "living large" after retirement.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Meet China's Housing Debt Slaves





Think Americans are the only people in the world toiling under a gargantuan debtload, which at last check was a massive $55.3 trillion, or about $175K per person? Think again. Meet Sherry Sheng, a 29-year-old Shanghai policewoman, who bought herself a 4,000 yuan ($642) black fur jacket, splurging for the last time before she starts paying off the mortgage on her first home.

Sherry is what is known as a Chinese "housing slave."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks Drop Most In 2013 As Gold Is Crucified On The Death Cross





A strange sea of red inhabits the screens of many traders and investors across the USA this evening, and all it took was for the FOMC to hint that the punchbowl will have to be taken away at some point in the future. Biggest jump in VIX in 2013; biggest plunge in Homebuilders in 8 months (as TOL misses and Starts were ugly); biggest dump in stocks in 2013; Gold plunges to $1565 and suffers Death Cross; USD soars and crosses above its 200DMA; and oil has frantic flash crash early on. Not a pretty day as stocks drop below the lower edge of their up-trend channel for the year and test critical support amid the highest volume of the year. The four words on everyone's lips this evening: Where is Kevin Henry?

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The 'Kyle Bass' Trade And How The Penny Cost Taxpayers $436mm





It has been a few years since Kyle Bass suggested the 'nickel trade' and the idea remains as profitable for those with large wheel-barrows now as it ever was. As Bloomberg notes, the penny currently costs almost 2 cents to make and the nickel more than 10 cents - more than double the cost from 2006. In those seven years, the US taxpayer has lost a stunning $436 million thanks to the inflationary devaluation of the USD relative to the metals involved, and while a former Arizona congressman (Jim Kolbe) tried to sponsor a bill to abolish the penny (to save the cost of minting), President Obama noted that "given all the big issues, we're not able to get to it," even as the Canadian Mint just stopped distributing pennies - saving $11mm annually. It seems, while the production process may have costs, the 100% markup for pennies and nickels remains an intriguing disconnect.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

TICK Plunges As Suddenly Everyone Sells





It took the algos a good hour of digesting the Fed's PR before slowly and surely, as we observed when noting the stealthy action in the VIX, the crowd shifted suddenly from the right side of the boat to the left. In the process, it pushed the TICK indicator well below 1000. But it is probably more notable that a modest 1% drop in the S&P is enough to bring up rumors of a "Markets in Crisis" special, and force all those who were buying on the low-volume levitation into a coordinated sell-off. New York Fed's Kevin Henry better show up soon or the last hour of trading will get messy without an invisible hand propping it up.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Market Reaction To FOMC Minutes





UPDATE: Minutes after the post - Stocks getting ugly now, catching down to VIX and USD's move

Bonds were sold instantly as the more hawkish comments from the FOMC hit - as was Gold. The USD rallied and stocks dipped modestly. Once that initial knee-jerk settled, stocks have gone largely sideways to modestly lower, Treasury yields have pushed back towards the day's highs as the USD strength and Gold weakness are tracking each other perfectly for now. Unfortunately, this is not helping the price of Oil - which is higher post-FOMC. Notably, while this is clearly being viewed as hawkish for bonds, commodities, and the USD, stocks appear unphased - but it seems VIX is soaking up the equity uncertainty for now (VIX +1.1 vols at 13.40%) indicating considerably more concern than the market itself (for now). The 'bond-like' Utilities sector is the most pressured (as rates rise) for now.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

FOMC Minutes: Hawkish Rumblings Getting Louder





It would appear that even though the relative dovishness of the FOMC has increased, a realization that the party has to stop sometime is dawning on the PhDs - though for now, the printing will continue until morale improves...

  • SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID EASING MAY PROMPT EXCESSIVE RISK
  • MANY FOMC PARTICIPANTS VOICED CONCERN ABOUT RISKS OF MORE QE
  • SEVERAL ON FOMC SAID FED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO VARY PACE OF QE
  • FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID ECONOMY WAS ON 'MODERATE GROWTH PATH'
  • SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW IMPROVED U.S. CREDIT CONDITIONS
  • A NUMBER OF FED OFFICIALS SAID TAPERING QE MAY BECOME NECESSARY

Pre-FOMC: ES 1521.00, 10Y 2.01%, EUR 1.3337, Gold $1580, WTI $94.18

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: How Do We Break The Cycle Of Higher Tuition And More Debt?





As we have discussed in detail (here, here, and most recently here), many college students face repaying a mountain of debt upon graduating, and many college graduates end up working jobs that don't require a degree. Even worse, 40 percent of college students drop out without earning a degree, but that does not free them from the debt they have accumulated. In this brief clip, Professor Daniel Lin argues - rightly - that government subsidies are to blame for the continually rising costs of higher education. Although such subsidies are supposed to help defray college costs, they are making the situation worse. A policy that worsens the problem it is supposed to fix should be eliminated - even if it is the government's only credit inflating tool left.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Is 5th Time The Charm For Equity Vol?





While most mainstream market watchers will pontificate wildly on the VIX as indicative of whatever their whimsy of the day tends to be, we prefer to look at relative performance. The forward-looking implied vol is currently only just below its multi-year average premium to realized volatility (so a low VIX is not that exciting standalone). Realized volatility is pretty much as low as it has been in the last four years, courtesy of the Fed - and each time has been followed by a resurgence soon after. However, there is one more indicator of potential over-exuberance that offers some hope for traders - the spread between SPY (S&P 500) implied vol and HYG (high yield debt) implied vol is at its lowest since the crisis - and each of the previous four times this spread has been this narrow, we have seen notable weakness in stocks soon after. With HYG so 'cheap' to stocks, it seems being long HYG vs. short SPY, or long SPY vol vs. short HYG vol makes some sense for some low vol cheap protection.

 
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!