Archive - Feb 7, 2013

The oil industry is full of bad analysts.

It would appear the undecideds had it. The WSJ reports that a proposal to arm Syrian rebels was stalled by the White House (cough Obama cough) because of lingering questions about which rebels could be trusted with the arms, whether the transfers would make a difference in the campaign to remove Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, and whether the weapons would add to the suffering. It seems, however, that the Pentagon, the State Department, and the CIA were all gung ho for the plan last year as a Senate hearing today uncovered some of the facts (and disagreements). As WSJ notes, the disclosures thrust a spotlight on the extent to which President Barack Obama charts his own course in the face of calls to action by members of his own team, and on the extent of his caution about entering a new conflict. In the post-Kofi Annan talks break-down in June 2012, Hilary pushed to arm the rebels and the CIA said arms would "materially" affect the situation to overthrow Assad. With the introduction of Kerry, Hagel, and Brennan, the tensions may flare once again though only the latter has suggested anything but backing Obama's perspective.

There are no ramifications if you get caught defrauding the court. Just take a voluntary dismissal and start over. We now have a court system, an entire judicial system, that supports fraud...

Big round numbers always encourage reflection.  Turning 40 or 50, for example, or making (or losing) a million dollars.  Or a billion.  And so it is with “Dow 14,000.”  ConvergEx's Nick Colas has three critical observations as we traverse this particular “Big round number.”  First, it is clear that equity prices (and volatility, for that matter) are much more a direct tool of central bank policy than in prior economic cycles.  Second, the rally off the bottom in March 2009 has left the investing world with very few money managers who can legitimately claim the title of “Smart money.” Lastly, you have to consider the way forward.  The roadmap from Dow 6600 (March 2009) to Dow 14,000 was – in retrospect – clearly marked by signs labeled “Follow the central bank yellow brick road.”  Good enough signage to get us here, clearly.  But, as Nick notes, fundamentals – corporate earnings, interest rates, and economic growth – those are the metrics which will have to guide us as central banks inevitably reduce their liquidity programs. As he considers the way forward for U.S. stocks, he reflects on Spring 1994 - U.S. stock investors thought they had it all figured out as they exited 1993, just as they do now...

Yesterday we presented a simplistic analysis of why for Japan "This Time Won't Be Different", a preliminary observation so far validated by the just announced Japanese December current account deficit which was not only nearly double the expected 144.2 billion yen, printing at some 264.1 billion yen, but was only the first back-to-back monthly current account deficit since 1985. But perhaps we are wrong and this time Abe will succeed where he, and so many others, have failed before. And, as is now widely understood, perhaps Japan will succeed in finally launching the necessary and sufficient currency war that would be part and parcel of Japans great reflation, as even various G-8 members have recently acknowledged. The question is will it, and when?  One attempt at an answer comes from the fine folks at Bienville Capital who have compiled the definitive pros and cons presentation on what Japan must do, and how it will play out, at least if all goes according to plan.

With Abe picking his new dovish playmate, and Draghi doing his best to jawbone the EUR down without actually saying anything, it is becoming very clear that no matter what level of bullshit histrionics is used by the politicians and bankers in public, the currency wars have begun to gather pace. Japan's more open aggressive policy intervention is the game-changer (and increasingly fascinating how they will talk around it at the upcoming G-20), as if a weaker JPY is an important pillar of the strategy to make this export-oriented economy more competitive again, it brings into the picture something that was missing from earlier interactions among central banks of the advanced economies – competitive depreciation. The last time the world saw a fully fledged currency war was in the early 1930s. Morgan Stanley's Joachim Fels looks at what it was like and what lessons can be drawn for the sequence of events - there are definite winners and losers and a clear first-mover advantage.

The easiest way for a patriotic, civil liberties defending U.S. citizen to know whether to support or oppose an issue is when two of the most authoritative, narcissistic politicians from the two controlled political parties in America are in strong agreement. In this case, I am referring to Lindsay Graham and Barack Obama’s recent love fest on drone warfare...

Asset inflation often produces something called "wealth illusion," the belief that pricier asset holdings necessarily make one permanently richer. Illusions are dangerous. Eventually, painful reality intervenes. The "wealth illusion" of asset inflation is seductive, which is why central banks in charge of a fiat currency and subject to no external disciplines so often drift in that direction. Politicians smile in satisfaction and powerful Washington lobbies cry for more.  But an economy built on an illusion is hardly a sound structure. We may be doomed to learn that lesson once again before long.

While Moody's slipped over 20% when the DoJ announced its cajillion dollar lawsuit against S&P for knowing the crisis was coming but not telling anyone, it later bounced back over 10% as investors believed the non-US-downgrading rating agency (that happened to be owned by Buffett) was too-big-to-jail. After-hours today, Reuters is reporting that the Justice Department and multiple states are discussing also suing Moody's Corp for defrauding investors, according to people familiar with the matter, but any such move will likely wait until a similar lawsuit against rival Standard and Poor's is tested in the courts. The stock is trading down 3% after-hours as sources (not authorized to speak publicly) added "don't think Moody's is off the hook." We can't help but think about the pending sequester-delaying deficit spike as perhaps, to appear impartial, the DoJ will keep the threat of a lawsuit against Moody's alive... during the entire period when the US may and should be downgraded.

Any trader of paper gold and silver will likely never forget the endless and certainly parabolic barrage of margin hikes that the CME imposed in the spring and summer of 2011 which had only one purpose: to break the back of the relentless anti-fiat rally in the precious metals (and which culminated with the historic May 1 take down of silver when the metal plunged some 15% in the span of seconds). Since then, perhaps as a result of initial and maintenance margins still at residual levels indicative of when the S&P was some 30% lower and some $4 trillion less in slushing global central bank liquidity, the upside euphoria in gold and silver has been decidedly hobbled, perhaps so much that the CME is now scrambling to find a whole new set of gullible investors who will obediently put their money in the paper trap, only to see a surge followed by yet another mauling from soaring margin demands. After all, the CME needs trading volume to keep the cash flow flowing - killing the paper market in any one product suits nobody. Sure enough, moments ago, the CME once again cut margins in a slew of products, most notably gold and silver, by some 10% and 14%.

The equity markets, despite a verey modest drop so far today, continue to hang in despite slowing profits growth. David Rosenberg notes that while many tout the +6% YoY earnings growth, once adjusted for special factors, the growth rate in earnings is a meager 40bps! So, he notes, it appears not to be about earnings but about what investors are willing to pay for the earnings stream and lays out four reasons for the market's 'comfort'. However, while Mr. Market is catching on to the Fed's overt attempt to reflate the economy by reflating asset values, he warns, we have seen in the past how these cycles turn out - and whether you are a trend-follower or contrarian, take note of the overwhelming consensus across almost every asset class right now. Dow Theory advocates have been doing high-fives all year long as the S&P Industrials and Dow Transports make new highs, reinforcing the notion (mirage is more like it) of economic escape velocity, but Rosenberg has more than a few (EIGHT)  'anomalies' that show things are actually stagnating (or contracting) and don't pass his smell test.

Five full years on from the financial crisis, stock markets have regained lost ground and are within striking distance of new record highs. Yet, it’s only now, after all the gains from the bottom have been made, that the investing crowd is starting to put money back into stocks. Curious. When stocks were cheap, nobody wanted them. Now that they’ve breached record nominal highs again (Dow 14,000++), investors are piling back in. It’s almost a cliche, but to make money investing, you generally have to buy something when nobody else wants it, and sell when everyone wants to buy. As a group, gold stocks are down between 20% and 30% over the past year. Yet in that same timeframe, the price of the gold has risen. As a result, sentiment toward gold stocks is pitiful. Even diehard gold bugs are tired of losing money in gold stocks and have been dumping their shares in disgust. There are 4 main reasons I can think of why gold stocks might be so cheap...

Just as it was all tropical storm Sandy's fault for somehow impacting the national economy from California, to Florida, to Oregon and all the way to Vermont, but more importantly - giving economists a scapegoat on which to blame the acute weakness in economic data in the November timeframe, so tomorrow's "historic" blizzard will be the inevitable reason for which the economy will once again perform "below expectations." It will have nothing to do with the ongoing reign of authoritarian terror conducted by the residents of the Marriner Eccles building, which has made a baseline growth rate of 1% in the artificial economy an optimistic outcome. Because, as everyone knows, in a centrally-planned, priced to absolute perfection economy, no exogenous variables, such as snow storms in the middle of winter, can possibly be allowed or certainly factored for. Which is why expect to hear a whole lot more in the next 24 hours about Blizzard Nemo: after all propaganda patterning demands that everyone has a clear image of the perpetrator when the time comes to cast all blame on one single event and to distract from the real cause of now structural underlying economic weakness.

Thanks to Draghi's jawboning the correlated risk-off rampage that occurred into and through the open of the US day-session (as EUR plunged 200 pips) sent S&P futures back well below 1500 on serious volume. Of course, that was unacceptable and once Europe closed and POMO was done, S&P futures began their VIX-coupled liftathon. By the close, S&P cash ended just in the red for the week again - within a 3pt range of closes (1511, 1512, 1509) in the last 3 days. Risk-assets in general were more correlated early on in the dip and then de-correlated (surprise) as stocks lifted. ETFs across rates, stocks, vol, and credit held together; but the underlying markets did not play along as the USD flatlined and Treasury yields only rose modestly as stocks surged this afternoon. Gold and silver ended the day down (after a flurry of dips and rips as Draghi spoke). A late-day, well-timed AAPL press release provided some impetus, pushing Tech almost into the green on the week (as only Staples are so far). European stocks, bonds, and credit are all red for the year; US credit is red for the year; US macro is red for the year; and US stocks continue to believe (SPX +6%) - even as the USD (+0.5% YTD) has the biggest 4-day jump in 7 months!

We urge readers to read the bolded section below, which comes straight from this quariter's Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (i.e., Primary Dealers) presentation to the Treasury Department, and explain, with a straight face, just how the Fed will ever be able to not only stop monetizing debt and injecting $85 billion of flow into the stock market, but actually sell any holdings.