Archive - Feb 2013

How Many Constitutional Freedoms Do We Still Have?

Since we first started discussing the new frontier of investment (or economic hitmen), Africa has been appearing more and more in the headlines - from labor conditions in the South to military action in the North. Natural resources and leverageable assets remain key as the infamous Zimbabwean 'dictator' Robert Mugabe, fighting for re-election at the age of 89, maintains that Zimbabwe's difficulties stem from a Western plot to re-colonize it. With more than 80% of the country unemployed but rampant inflation somewhat calmed, Reuters notes that Mugabe believes "It's God's choice" that he is running in this close election. Just like Goldman Sachs "doing God's work", Mugabe believes "this is a task the Lord might have wanted me to fulfill among my people...," regarding the liberation struggle for black economic empowerment. More than 4,000 out of an original 4,500 white-owned farms have been seized since 2000 under a program he says is aimed at correcting land ownership imbalances created by colonialism. The consensus is that a free and fair election will create a true democratic outcome, but as one local noted "with his record I just don't see how Mugabe can win a free and fair election." Indeed, though the jackals remain.

Two and a half years ago, George Soros' former partner Stanley Druckenmiller closed shop when he shut down his iconic Duquesne Management, after generating 30% average annual returns since 1986. Some time later he raised many red flags by being one of the first "establishment" types to expose the Fed's take over of the market when he said in a rare May 2011 interview that "It's not a free market. It's not a clean market.... The market isn't saying anything about the future. It's saying there's a phony buyer of $19 billion of Treasurys a week." This was in the context of the constantly declining interest rates on an ever exploding US debt load. And while back then total debt was a "manageable" $14.3 trillion, as of today it is some $2.3 trillion higher moments ago printing at a fresh record high of $16.6 trillion, not surprisingly the phony buyer is still here only now he is buying not $19 billion by over $20 billion in total debt each week. But just like it was the relentless rise in the US debt that forced him out of his privacy in the public scene back then, so it was also the US debt that was also the topic of his rare CNBC appearance today (where he fiercely poked at all those other TV chatterbox pundits when he said "money managers should manage money and not go on shows like this") in the aftermath of his recent WSJ Op-Ed. There, he once again said what everyone knows but is scared to admit: "we have an entitlement problem."

This is the first of three articles on the suppression of gold. What drives us to write about the topic? We are tired of seeing endless proof of suppression (i.e. the typical take downs in the price at either 8:20am ET or at 10am-11am ET, with impressive predictability) and at the same time, it is unfair that anyone who voices this suppression be called a conspiracy theorist. The first letter will show that, under mainstream economic theory, the suppression of the gold market is not a conspiracy theory, but a logical necessity, a logical outcome. To enforce a balance in the global fiat money market via coordination of central banks is impossible; what may be feasible is to coordinate the expansion in the supply of global fiat money. But if that is the case, the manipulation of the gold market to leave it oversupplied is the logical outcome. To pretend it is not... is a conspiracy theory!

While the sell-side has been vociferous about the fact that earnings are troughing, that consensus growth expectations are not miraculous, that equities are discounting that awesome reality; it appears Goldman Sachs' 'Swirlogram" - which we initially discussed here - is pointing to what we have been seeing for months - a slowdown in their global leading indicator dead-ahead.

Despite a late-day surge on chatter from Fed's Williams, equities could not catch a bid. VIX was plundered for protection, surging to the highs of the year (above 16%) as S&P futures saw the biggest volume of the year as they held below the lowest uptrend-channel from the November lows. The Dow and the S&P bounced off unchanged for the month of Feb but the Nasdaq remains red - Materials are down over 3% as Staples are up 3% on the month (Tech/Disc/Energy unch). Gold and Silver managed solid gains on the day even as the USD pushed higher (up over 1.1% on the week even as JPY strengthens) and Oil and Copper had notable down days. Treasury yields slipped lower (-3bps) and credit markets underperformed stocks. The S&P is back at its 2011 highs in terms of Gold, and rolled over today. Cross-asset-class correlations rose all day as broad risk-off was very evident. We suspect the drop in the VIX into the close was short-term protection unwinds along with actual exposure reduction (which we saw at VWAP).

How many trillions of Dollars are we going to let the Fed spend? The Fed balance sheet is now over $3 trillion… making it larger than the GDP of France, the UK, or Brazil. Indeed, if the Fed’s balance sheet were a country, it’d be the FIFTH LARGEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD.

Citi's risk-warning signals, based on implied volatility on currencies that are very sensitive to risk appetite, have backed up sharply in the last couple of weeks and especially over the last day or two.  The back-up has been so sharp that they have unwound all the easing in risk aversion since September/October. To be clear these indications are still suggesting that risk aversion is very low by 2008 standards, but all of our indicators have backed up markedly, suggesting that despite the abundance of liquidity investors are getting nervous.

The saga of the Heinz call option insider trade, first profiled here, and the Goldman trail, also first observed here ("Does GS stand for Goldman Sachs one wonders"), just got even more fun as revelations that it was none other than a client of Goldman's Private Wealth group out of Zurich that hit the buy key on those thousands in call options one day ahead of the announcement. From Reuters: "A Goldman Sachs private wealth client is the holder of the Swiss account at the center of an investigation into insider trading in H.J. Heinz Co options, regulators said in a court filing late Wednesday." Alas, and as before, the question of who leaked the inside information to this Goldman client still remains unanswered.

From remarks by the Dick Fisher of the Dallas Fed:

• The Fed has artificially sustained markets

Thank you for the admission, oh FOMC member. And to think just 4 years ago anyone accusing the Fed of using its "invisible hand" and doing everything in its power to solely focus on the stock market was labeled a "conspiracy theory" crackpot. One wonders what other "conspiracy theories" will be admitted by the Fed as fact in another four short years?

When one thinks of the US banking system, the one thing few consider these days is the threat of a liquidity shortage. After all how can banks have any liquidity strain at a time when the Fed has dumped some $1.7 trillion in excess reserves into the banking system? Well, on one hand as we have shown previously, the bulk of the excess reserve cash is now solidly in the hands of foreign banks who have US-based operations. On the other, it is also safe to assume that with the biggest banks now nothing more than glorified hedge funds (courtesy of ZIRP crushing Net Interest Margin and thus the traditional bank carry trade), and with hedge funds now more net long, and thus levered, than ever according to at least one Goldman metric, banks have to match said levered bullishness to stay competitive with the hedge fund industry. Which is why the news that at noon the Fed reported that Primary Dealer borrowings from its SOMA portfolio, which amounted to $22.3 billion, just happened to be the highest such amount since 2011, may be taken by some as an indicator that suddenly the 21 Primary Dealers that face the Fed for the bulk of their liquidity needs are facing an all too real cash shortage.

The cruelest law of all is the minimum wage. In a time when our economy is struggling and teenage unemployment is through the roof (especially minorities), raising the minimum wage is the worst thing that can be done. This price control hurts the most vulnerable in society and those most in need of jobs. Yet the political class knows they can depend upon the ignorance and stupidity of the voting public. By appearing to be compassionate, they gain favor and votes. This move is not compassionate, it is harmful and destructive.

After the spectacular moves of late 2008, currency market volatility slowly reverted to more normal ranges, with a few exceptions over the course of 2009-2011. However, as Saxo Bank notes, since the start of the year, firebrand rhetoric is forcing currencies lower. The yen has fallen a stunning 17% against the US dollar and over 20% versus the Euro in the three months since Japan’s newly elected prime minister Shinzo Abe took charge. This has reignited the global currency wars. But who are the winners and losers? Follow the three step process outlined in the infographic below and have your say at the #FXdebates. As you can see, currency debasement has given rise to a rally in equity markets (for now), but major economies, both advanced and emerging, have been slow to recover.

Presented with little comment except to note that US and European credit markets have been sending warning signals all year; whether they rally to meet stocks or stocks crack to credit's concerns is not for sure - though the truism that credit anticipates and equity confirms remains as prescient as ever. However, it appears the macro-economy is better reflected in credit and with the Fed suggesting its liquidity anxiety is rising, perhaps equities will recouple once again...

For a while there it was looking as if the market might actually make its high and move lower before Wall Street and corporate insiders were able to hand the bag over to the suckers in retail.  It looks like that was just wishful thinking, as new stats show the retail sheep taking stock from the oligarchs at the highs as usual.  I guess the more things change the more they stay the same.