Archive - Feb 2013

Throughout history, citizen disarmament generally leads to one of two inevitable outcomes:  Government tyranny and genocide, or, revolution and civil war.  Anti-gun statists would, of course, argue that countries like the UK and Australia have not suffered such a result.  My response would be – just give them time.   You may believe that gun control efforts are part and parcel of a totalitarian agenda (as they usually are), or, you may believe that gun registration and confiscation are a natural extension of the government’s concern for our “safety and well-being”.  Either way, the temptation of power that comes after a populace is made defenseless is almost always too great for any political entity to dismiss.  One way or another, for one reason or another, they WILL take advantage of the fact that the people have no leverage to determine their own cultural future beyond a twisted system of law and governance which is, in the end, easily corrupted. The unawake and the unaware among us will also argue that revolution or extreme dissent against the establishment is not practical or necessary, because the government “is made of regular people like us, who can be elected or removed at any time”.  This is the way a Republic is supposed to function, yes.  However, the system we have today has strayed far from the methods of a Free Republic and towards the machinations of a single party system.  Our government does NOT represent the common American anymore.  It has become a centralized and Sovietized monstrosity.  A seething hydra with two poisonous heads; one Democrat in name, one Republican in name.  Both heads feed the same bottomless stomach; the predatory and cannibalistic pit of socialized oligarchy.

When the news broke of the SEC's action against the HNZ call option insider traders, and we posted the full SEC charge against the perpetrators whose actions Zero Hedge reported on first, we asked this regarding one of the entities named: "the trade occurred through an "omnibus account located in Zurich, Switzerland in the name of GS Bank IC Buy Open List Options GS & Co c/o Zurich Office (the "GS Account")." Does GS stand for Goldman Sachs one wonders?" This followed our prior post, rhetorically titled "Guess Who Was Buying HNZ Stock From Its Clients", with the answer of course being Goldman Sachs, which had had HNZ stock at a Sell rating for months, and which just days before reiterated its negative sentiment. But for the most part the post was written in jest. Turns out the joke was on everyone else, because just as we feared, or rather knew, Goldman was indeed implicated all along.

An overivew of the price action in the foreign exchange market and what it might mean in the week ahead.  

And so the surreal criminal saga of former Illinois Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. has ended. Jackson, 47, a prominent Chicagoan son of the civil-rights leader of the same name for the handful of people who are unaware, was a national co-chairman of President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign and an advocate of traditional Democratic Party constituencies. He disappeared in June, and it was later revealed that he was being treated at the Mayo Clinic for bipolar disorder and gastrointestinal issues, although now it appears kleptomania may have been one of the afflictions treated too. He returned to his Washington home in September but went back to the clinic the next month. As Bloomberg summarizes, "he pushed to maintain government support for the poor, including welfare, assistance for heating bills and the Head Start early education program." He certainly was very generous with other people's money. So generous, in fact, that hours ago he was charged with "misusing", also known as stealing, some $750,000 in campaign funds for purchases including a $43,350 gold Rolex watch, $5,150 for fur capes and parkas, $10,000 worth of "children's furniture", Michael Jackson and Bruce Lee memorabilia and much more.

Eater Beware ...

If you're one of the 1% of Americans who control over 40% of the country's wealth, life is full of choices. Among them - how best to keep all that money away from the government? The U.S. economic system offers no shortage of loopholes allowing the ultra-rich to shortchange Uncle Sam. The following infographic explains how exactly do the super rich hide that much money from the government every year?

This objective report concisely summarizes important macro events over the past week.  It is not geared to push an agenda.  Impartiality is necessary to avoid costly psychological traps, which all investors are prone to, such as confirmation, conservatism, and endowment biases. Also - from Citi's Steven Englander - what to worry about from this weekend's G-20 extravaganza...

TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman finds it hard to hide his disdain for the omnipotent reality that President Obama espoused of a non-deficit increasing State of the Union solution to all our ills (from climate, income inequality, opportunity, and health) as he notes the politicians "do not seem to understand is that big government is, in fact, the problem, not the solution." The problem is it is hard to find one service the government provides that is effective, other then writing checks. We have not won the federal wars on poverty, or drugs, nor overseas wars in Iraq, and Afghanistan - so although governments have rarely successfully provided services, we have a government committed to doing just that. This faith in government omnipotence is now bleeding over into stocks, as Biderman notes "since January 1, investors are pouring billions into the markets in the mistaken belief that the “fake” money created by central banks is just as good as previously existing money, and the markets will keep soaring. But for how long?" He is clear on the implication of this "magical thinking" At some point "the markets will have an “aha” moment and stop allowing central banks to use newly created money with which to pay government bills. When that happens the markets will crash."

We’ve discussed many times before - hardly a month goes by without some major action against Internet users... from Obama’s ‘kill switch’, to ACTA, SOPA and PIPA, to stasi tactics against people like Kim Dotcom. Online privacy is becoming more important by the day. And nobody is going to give it to you, you have to take steps yourself to secure it. Below are five different tools and services that will get you started...

"It’s not going away, it’s going to get worse," is how PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian warns Yahoo's Lauren Lyster about central bank policy and the currency wars that are so much in discussion currently. Central banks have been compelled to undertake unconventional measures, things they haven’t done before, because other policymakers are not stepping up to take responsibility on the fiscal side. These implicit devaluations and beggar-thy-neighbor policies force a lot of liquidity into the system and by pushing up asset prices, central banks believe, create a 'weath effect'. It can also trigger “animal spirits” – we get all excited and invest more. In terms of equity markets, El-Erian says investors are split into two camps. One camp believes that everything will go higher and central banks will succeed in their efforts. The other camp believes asset prices are going to come down to meet the fundamentals. El-Erian puts himself in the second camp. “We think that prices are artificially high, that maintaining them here is going to be hard as central banks become less effective, and that it’s time to book some profits and to wait for some better entry points,” he explains. He clarifies that this is not a “Lehman moment." But “prices that have gotten way ahead of what policy can deliver,"

Based on Heinz' new best friend from Omaha's "best single measure of where valuations stand at any given momen," US equities are now over-valued for the first time since 2007. Buffett's measure - the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the US GNP - as Cullen Roche indicates on Bloomberg's Chart of the Day, crossed 100% this week into stretched territory. As Gurufocus notes, this implies a mere return of around 3.3% annualized (including dividends) ove rthe folowing years - though as is clear from the chart below - the ride is extremely bumpy...

Yesterday, after the news of the Heinz acquisition hit the market just in time to wipe away the bitter aftertaste of the biggest GDP drop in Europe since 2009, we brought you the undisputed fact that someone made nearly $2 million in call options, which soared 1700% overnight and was bought the day before. It appears even the SEC finally is back to doing what its historic task was before it discovered internet porn, and one day after the report, has charged unidentified traders operating or trading out of Zurich, Switzerland with generating some $1.8 million in profits. Notably, the trade occurred through an "omnibus account located in Zurich, Switzerland in the name of GS Bank IC Buy Open List Options GS & Co c/o Zurich Office (the "GS Account")." Does GS stand for Goldman Sachs one wonders? And while we commend the SEC on finally doing its job, our original question still stands: who leaked the details of the transaction one day before its formal announcement?

JPY dumping early as G-20 showed they were as much use as a chocolate fireguard. Precious metals (then the rest of the commodity complex) cracked lower in the pre-open and USD strength but vol-crushing was not taking a day off and VIX-compression led S&P futures to test new highs (actually a tick off the week's highs) on dismal volume. Treasury yields pushed higher (though we note the 2s10s30s butterfly was the main carry driver). Correlations in general drifted lower as stocks slipped gently off their highs on mixed ECO data. As Europe closed, selling began but we noticed an odd thing - the selling continued - it was a non-POMO day! Then the WMT news broke and there was no POMO ammo to soak up the selling as the stock chipped away chunks of the Dow... but sure enough, the huge volume surge into the downturn was tickled all the way back up (as stocks tried to recouple with their more exuberant VIX neighbor) and touched VWAP into the last few minutes. VIX selling pressure into a long-weekend is not unusual but to new multi-year lows is becoming farcical. Gold -3.5%, Silver -5%, 10Y +6bps, USD +0.3%, Oil Unch, S&P +3pts, VIX -0.5vols. Quite a week of volumeless lethargy as the S&P 500 closed 1518, 1517, 1519, 1520, 1521, 1518.

Bulls make money; Bears make money; but Pigs get slaughtered - in massive amounts in China compared to the rest of the world... and unlike Ben Bernanke's apparent life-long vendetta against bears and their deflationary threat, this post actually means real pigs...